Convective/Storm Discussion Thread - 8th July onwards

[Morisco123]

Honestly, looking at the skies over Milton Keynes (Buckinghamshire) you would think a storm was coming. I can only wish!! 

Edited July 10, 2017 by Morisco123
Wrong word

[matt111]

Nothing showing on the radar and it doesn't look much but this has produced some quite large raindrops on the last few minutes. 

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

Some rain here on the westernmost edge of a cell over east Norfolk.

[Terminal Moraine]

A heavy shower here about an hour ago, which lasted for 15-20 minutes, but still no thunder yet this year.

[Thunderstruck]

Convective clouds now all around, most threateningly so to the West, but still nothing, not even rain!

Edit: Actually, small shower just popped up over Ockendon way, hopefully that develops into something more

Edited July 10, 2017 by Jcweather

[Storm mad]

Very heavy brief shower here...Sun back out now...no thunder...

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

Ok well something in surrey appears to be on fire but I can't see what. Also it appears to be kicking off convectively - and cells quickly popping up near worthing

[Thunderstruck]

7 minutes ago, Storm mad said:

Very heavy brief shower here...Sun back out now...no thunder...

Just reached me!

Heaviest rain for a while, but no thunder here either

Edited July 10, 2017 by Jcweather

[snowprincesspboro]

Gone soo muggy here at the mo, soo would like a few rumbles here to chill down a little 

[suffolkboy_]

Just had a storm develop directly overhead and then rumble away to my east. I could see the scud overhead going east to west as the shower came west to east, 10 minutes later, boom.

Very muggy now, waiting from the showers to my west to electrify...fingers crossed

Edited July 10, 2017 by suffolkboy_

[Neilsouth]

Not a single storm or much to talk about in the kent corner, even the beeb says " warning for kent "

 

WHERE??????? I don't see any storms here or in kent

[Hodgheg]

Clouds getting more vertically developed here and even to my west. Very isolated and skinny though.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Well if it don't rain today, it will tomorrow.. Jeez looks heavy for some 

As for clouds today, absolutely magnificent 

[Norfolk Sheep]

Hmm, that might have been thunder - the Australian Shepherd storm detector has gone into meltdown 

[tomp456]

Some half decent convection

 

[staplehurst]

1 hour ago, Neilsouth said:

Not a single storm or much to talk about in the kent corner, even the beeb says " warning for kent "

 

WHERE??????? I don't see any storms here or in kent

This one on the Isle of Thanet has just turned thundery...

[Chris.R]

 Well for once it looks like we get the better weather up here tomorrow and the chance of some weak convection in the afternoon with enough insolation. At least it will be nice to see the Queen Elizabeth  at the pierhead. 

[Delka]

18 hours ago, TJS1998Tom said:

This is more like it

that would be crazy good for us in norfolk and lincolnshire if it were to come off!

[Delka]

17 minutes ago, staplehurst said:

This one on the Isle of Thanet has just turned thundery...

that appeared out of nowhere!

[Summer Sun]

A large trough expanding towards central Europe where two short-wave troughs causing severe weather, one moving across Poland towards Baltic States and another one crosses the Alps from the west. A small but intense short-wave embedded in the strong jet crosses S UK, while strong ridge develops over Iberian peninsula.

A MDT risk has been issued for SE Poland, E Slovakia, E-CNTRL Belarus, W-CNTRL Ukraine into N Romania with threat for severe storms capable of producing large to very large hail, severe damaging winds, tornadoes and torrential rainfall. With an eastwards progression of the short-wave coming from the west, large scale ascent will trigger widely scattered storms by early to mid afternoon while they organize into severe storms given the great overlap or moderately strong shear and instability. MLCAPEs are ranging between 1500 and 2000 J/kg locally, which should also be supportive of very large hail in excess of 5 cm. Given the favorable helical LL environment, tornadoes are possible as well.

An ENH risk has seen issued for areas surrounding the MDT risk including E Poland, E Baltic states, central Ukraine, NE Hungary and N Romania with similar threat as within the MDT, but more isolated activity is expected. The ENH risk area was extended into W Russia with a reason of expected NE-wards moving storm clusters in the late afternoon or evening hours.

An ENH risk has been issued for the Alps, N Italy, Slovenia, S Austria and W Hungary with threat for scattered to widespread storm activity, including severe storms. Those will be capable of producing large to very large hail, severe winds and torrential rainfall. While most of the storm activity is expected later in the afternoon and evening hours, it’s likely that on-going night/early morning MCS activity over the Alps could extend into late morning and re-intensify while moving across the risk area into S Austria and Slovenia. Moderate deep-layer shear and moderate to strong instability (MLCAPE locally in excess of 2000 J/kg) will support rather rapid storm development. Some hints of more elevated storms seem over W Hungary and NE Slovenia which could enhance severe hail threat. Storms will merge into cluster or two while spreading towards N Croatia and central Hungary in the evening.

A SLGT risk has been issued surrounding the ENH risk areas from E France across the Alps, S Germany, Czech Republic and Slovakia, E Poland into Baltic states and S Finland, as well as E-CNTRL Croatia, N Serbia, N Romania and N Moldova. These is threat for some isolated storms in this area, capable of producing large hail and severe winds. Some more concentrated area for better coverage of storms is expected near the front across central Baltic states into S Finland. In addition to large hail and severe winds, heavy excessive rainfall could occur.

A MRGL risk has been issued for S England into English Channel, extreme N France and NW Belgium for some isolated threat in the later afternoon hours when a rather intense short wave rapidly moves across. With very limited instability but strongly sheared environment, severe winds and some tornado threat exists, in addition to excessive rainfall.

http://www.severe-weather.eu/outlooks-day1/outlook-day-1-valid-11072017/

[Summer Sun]

Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Tue 11 Jul 2017 - 05:59 UTC Wed 12 Jul 2017

ISSUED 17:29 UTC Mon 10 Jul 2017

ISSUED BY: Dan

... SCOTLAND ...

Broad upper trough on Tuesday with cool air aloft combined with diurnal heating and low-level convergence will likely result with a few scattered showers. Marginal lapse rates suggest some isolated lightning may occur, but in general dry layers aloft may cap convective depth somewhat. A couple of funnels or a weak tornado may be possible.

... S / SE ENGLAND ...

Probably not even worth a mention, but slight convective elements may develop on Tuesday night near the surface low centre as the upper trough approaches and mid-level lapse rates steepen a little. Risk of lightning is considered very low.

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2017-07-11

[Mapantz]

Dodged a few bullets while fibreglassing this afternoon. There were some big , convective drops of rain, but few and far between, luckily it passed just to the North of me.

[Hail lee]

Starting to look promising in Oxford 

I hope 

[Windblade]

Driving home about 5pm I saw some lovely dark, convective skyscapes over western kent. Extremely impressive heights on those cloud tops which were covered in huge cauliflower heads. I'm really surprised it didn't go bang tbh. There was nothing on radar. Another cell lit up on the east coast of kent but it wasn't the same one I saw.

As for my area, another bust. 

Edited July 10, 2017 by Windblade

[mesocyclone]

Sat under the cell in Thanet, Been good this year for storms here, The end of may was epic. This one just keeps back building over us and getting heavier then fading then building again, Nice few strikes of lightening but nothing extreme, I'd say the rainfall levels are getting high now though, Few hours it's been going and it built very quickly out of nowhere, directly above!  My garden really needs it though!  Right under it and very heavy rain so not to good for pics. Some beautiful cloudscapes earlier though, Might get a nice few later if it passes out to sea.