Convective/Storm Discussion Thread - 8th July onwards

[I remember Atlantic 252]

bin day tomorrow! thought that was thunder then

[Methuselah]

And I'm having one of my Pete Seeger moments - where have all the showers gone?

[Supacell]

First lightning detected to the west of Stafford.

[Lauren]

Sadly the storm shield over my house looks to hold firm. Been nearly 3 years since I last saw a decent storm.

Was in Italy last month where I could see huge thunderclouds on the horizon and black skies beneath them but it never came my way. We were dodging storm clouds all the way home. To be flying at 40,000ft and still have Cb towering well above you is quite a spectacular sight!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

1 minute ago, Supacell said:

First lightning detected to the west of Stafford.

thought I heard it just, but sounds like a chopper, but another faint rumble there

[Allseasons-Si]

Another cell blown up SE of me.

[tomp456]

Just went to church and threw in a cheeky prayer begging that any French import makes its way further west (into W Sussex) overnight/tomorrow am rather than just Kent.

 

desparate times call for desparate measures.

 

cue my prayer to be ignored lol 

 

[PurpleButterfly]

Current sky here in warm and still Luton! Temp is 24c. 

[LightningLover]

Thunderstorm potential for tomorrow is looking good here!

[Arnie Pie]

Big lump of convection to the N of Birmingham

[The PIT]

Cells approaching here beginning to die away before even producing anything.

[Methuselah]

2 minutes ago, The PIT said:

Cells approaching here beginning to die away before even producing anything.

At least you've got some dying cells, PIT? I am right where this morning's BBC forecast predicted storms might be troublesome and, yes, you've guessed it - there's absolutely sod-all!

[Craigers]

This looks interesting 

 

[Guest]

5 minutes ago, The PIT said:

Cells approaching here beginning to die away before even producing anything.

Yep and they've still got a long way to travel. Better to pin hopes on something developing a little closer to our south-west out of the blue tbh.

[Allseasons-Si]

3 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

At least you've got some dying cells, PIT? I am right where this morning's BBC forecast predicted storms might be troublesome and, yes, you've guessed it - there's absolutely sod-all!

Yet!!

there are showers developing in a line/lines from Oxford to Norwich.

 

Edited July 9, 2017 by Allseasons-si

[Arnie Pie]

we may get lucky with a couple of cells coming up from our SW near Kidderminster

[Sparkiee storm]

29 minutes ago, Arnie Pie said:

Big lump of convection to the N of Birmingham

I think I was underneath that, as is was really dark but didn't produce anything.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

2 minutes ago, Sparkiee storm said:

I think I was underneath that, as is was really dark but didn't produce anything.

North West of you, clipped me, bucketed doon, but other cell did miss to my NW, 

[Arnie Pie]

More Stafford way i think Sparkiee but it seemed to be developing over your area

[Sparkiee storm]

2 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

North West of you, clipped me, bucketed doon, but other cell did miss to my NW, 

 

1 minute ago, Arnie Pie said:

More Stafford way i think Sparkiee but it seemed to be developing over your area

Oh okay, my mistake lol

[Thunderstruck]

Is that anaprop in the Channel off the coast of New Romney? 

[LightningLover]

Tiny piece of a sun halo!

[Ciderwithrosie]

Very dark cloud , drop in temperature to 18 C breeze picking up. Not sure why it's dark n brooding here as I understand it no storms are forecast here .but I don't think anything will come of it . 

[Stuart]

Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Mon 10 Jul 2017 - 05:59 UTC Tue 11 Jul 2017

ISSUED 19:31 UTC Sun 09 Jul 2017

ISSUED BY: Dan

Upper trough continues to migrate eastwards on Monday, its axis over eastern Britain early afternoon, then shifting east to the North Sea by evening. At the surface, residual warm, moist air will exist across East Anglia and SE England, with some elements of showery precipitation likely ongoing / expanding at the beginning of this forecast period as the approaching upper trough continues to destabilise the mid-levels initially. 

 

Provided there is some insolation, scattered showers are likely to develop quite quickly during the morning, with a few thunderstorms possible too - particularly in eastern parts where elements of low-level convergence will aid forcing (such as along and east of the A12 for example). Forecast profiles are fairly moist with skinny CAPE, so lightning may be sporadic at times but large rain accumulations may occur locally giving the risk of local flashing flooding. Low cloud bases and low-level convergence could allow a few funnels / weak tornadoes to occur.

 

Elsewhere, showers are expected but with drier layers aloft acting as a cap and limiting convective depth somewhat - and so lightning is considered less likely.

 

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2017-07-10

[Eye to the sky]

The cell to the SW of me looks impressive,think we might get a few drops of rain but nothing more.