Convective/Storm Discussion Thread - 8th July onwards

[LightningLover]

Is it worth watching developments in N France?

[Thunderstruck]

4 minutes ago, LightningLover said:

Is it worth watching developments in N France?

Possibly. Just been outside and it does feel pretty humid out there...

[Lynxus]

Well, estofex.org have a warning out today (I say warning.. Its a chance of thunder) anyway...

They are normally on the ball. So may get something later!

 

[Gordon Webb]

17 minutes ago, Lynxus said:

Well, estofex.org have a warning out today (I say warning.. Its a chance of thunder) anyway...

They are normally on the ball. So may get something later!

 

well the UK is not mentioned with any detail in their forecast and they only indicate a 50% chance of lighting been within 25 miles of a particular point in the area so as an example there's a 50% chance of lighting strike in birmingham from my current location but I won't be expecting any now as for Lincs and east anglia later there might be more chance

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

12 minutes ago, Gordon Webb said:

well the UK is not mentioned with any detail in their forecast and they only indicate a 50% chance of lighting been within 25 miles of a particular point in the area so as an example there's a 50% chance of lighting strike in birmingham from my current location but I won't be expecting any now as for Lincs and east anglia later there might be more chance

And there's also a 50% chance from Birmingham to right on top of your house! 

Quite a few hi res models showing some beefy showers into the evening and overnight into Lincs, maybe the odd spark in them perhaps, but nothing like a few nights ago I wouldn't have thought. 

Edited July 9, 2017 by East_England_Stormchaser91

[poseidon]

Roasting hot day again - what a summer! Some dark clouds starting to appear but MO predicting it wil just turn cloudy round here and stay that way. Wind has picked up as well. 

[sunnijim]

3 hours ago, LightningLover said:

Louise Lear has just mentioned the possibility of some french imports in the early hours of tomorrow morning.

A theme that was alluded to on Wednesday evening then dropped as models lost interest.

A couple of models have re - introduced the idea today as have BBC forecasts, not sure about Kent clipper,it looks like a 'South coast scimmer' at best,Points East from IOW to Kent.

[LightningLover]

17 minutes ago, sunnijim said:

A theme that was alluded to on Wednesday evening then dropped as models lost interest.

A couple of models have re - introduced the idea today as have BBC forecasts, not sure about Kent clipper,it looks like a 'South coast scimmer' at best,Points East from IOW to Kent.

Just remember to stay hopeful! Mother Nature has it's ways of surprising you. 

[LightningLover]

On LightningMaps.org, there is some sferics developing in N. France.

[tomp456]

Any chance the potential 'Kent clipper' could move a bit west to the Sussex coast?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

aaaaand that's a no.

[Polar Maritime]

Some smashing cloudscapes here this afternoon.

[Arnie Pie]

Hardly any convection going on around here atm......75% chance of breeding a few storms for our friends further East

A few `mares tails` around though

 

[Sparkiee storm]

A bit of convection around here, but more so looking east.

Looking like a storm in Paris - http://www.citycams.tv/en/france/paris-eiffel-tower/

[Windblade]

Well, so much for our supposedly cooler weekend, it's been absolutely sweltering here yesterday and today so far. Theres some low cumulus buildup but I can't see anything faintly promising at the moment. I just hope the clouds block the sun and give us some relief at least. 

Edited July 9, 2017 by Windblade

[Windblade]

4 hours ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

Good things often happen unexpectedly! And I agree. We used to get so many decent daytime homegrowns too back when I was in school, particularly the earlier years. I remember some cracking afternoon storms always happening particularly as we were on the approach to the summer 6 week holidays. There was a few times where we would be practically held hostage at the school doors as the rain was so intense and lightning striking all over! The 90s hold some brilliant memories for me. 

We had some great storm action in the 80's and 00's too and I can't work out what's changed since then that has made storms so rare in our neck of the woods now (especially mcs)?

Edited July 9, 2017 by Windblade

[Milocation]

Lots of cells popping up across N.France now...

[LightningLover]

2 minutes ago, LimoPreacherman said:

Lots of cells popping up across N.France now...

Do you think that is a sign for tonight in the SE?

[Milocation]

Just now, LightningLover said:

Do you think that is a sign for tonight in the SE?

Honestly, i have no idea :/ I guess we wait and see.....

[Julian 777]

21 hours ago, TropicThunder said:

 

 

Edited July 9, 2017 by Jules777
posted same pic twice by accident

[LightningLover]

2 minutes ago, Jules777 said:

 

I have a similar view from Hastings.

[staplehurst]

23 minutes ago, Windblade said:

We had some great storm action in the 80's and 00's too and I can't work out what's changed since then that has made storms so rare in our neck of the woods now (especially mcs)?

There have been some suggestions that in the past 10 years (or more) the broad synoptic scale pattern has shifted a little further east, so in general the areas that used to experience plume breakdowns (the phasing of upper troughs interacting with the warm, moist low-level air masses) has shifted more to central and eastern Europe - with an increase in supercell activity in western Russia in recent years, for example - though this may be due to increased awareness through social media etc.

Edited July 9, 2017 by staplehurst

[Milocation]

Just a bit of cumulostratus here, definitely humid...

[Julian 777]

1 minute ago, LightningLover said:

I have a similar view from Hastings.

I'm guessing that what we are seeing is the overhang from the storms on the other side of the channel..Thumbs up for a northward heading drift!!

[sunnijim]

43 minutes ago, Windblade said:

Well, so much for our supposedly cooler weekend, it's been absolutely sweltering here yesterday and today so far. Theres some low cumulus buildup but I can't see anything faintly promising at the moment. I just hope the clouds block the sun and give us some relief at least. 

The heat has been an interesting one for sure.For many days leading up to, Friday was supposed to be the 'drain away'of heat day.Forecast high was 27c.It hit 30c at Heathrow...

And ever since temperatures have been two or three degrees higher than predicted values in the SE,on what at one time last week was supposed to be a 22c maximum weekend!(looking at a high of 29c today I would imagine)

Edited July 9, 2017 by sunnijim

[Ciderwithrosie]

It's Hot and sticky. But it's been like this for a while now in the last week and nothing happens . There are clouds forming but I think they will blow over .