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Convective/Storm Discussion Thread - 8th July onwards

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The month of June was a month with at times much promise but little reward. Then into the start of July, for some of us, there were spectacular thunderstorms this past Thursday evening. Let's hope this is a harbinger of things to come, but with more of us getting in on the fun. Here's too a stormy middle and late storm season!

If you want to catch up on the old thread then you can find it here

As usual please remember to stay on topic and also remember that forecasting storms is a very difficult job. In 99% of cases it is an impossibility to know whether a storm will affect a certain village or town. I understand the frustration as I have felt it myself, especially this year. The UK can be a frustrating country to live in for storm seekers. So, if you feel frustrated, have tales of storm woe or feel that your town just keeps missing out (mine does) then the No Storms Club is open for business as always.

 

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Welcome to the new thread, everyone! Tomorrow looks like a very small chance, but i'll still keep an eye out on model outputs.

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14 minutes ago, LightningLover said:

Welcome to the new thread, everyone! Tomorrow looks like a very small chance, but i'll still keep an eye out on model outputs.

Heres hoping!! I will settle for a few flashes visible over the Channel after dark..Will be interesting to see how things develop over Northern France

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It would be fine if storms were to occur all the way to October as you say, but with half the season gone we've already been denied at least three events, and with nothing on the radar for the foreseeable future I just see the summer days passing by with nothing electrical of note happening. Especially with this heat: was 32° yesterday afternoon!

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33 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

It would be fine if storms were to occur all the way to October as you say, but with half the season gone we've already been denied at least three events, and with nothing on the radar for the foreseeable future I just see the summer days passing by with nothing electrical of note happening. Especially with this heat: was 32° yesterday afternoon!

That seems to be the trouble the past few years we down in the south bake and those up north get all the goods storm wise. 

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3 minutes ago, london-snow said:

That seems to be the trouble the past few years we down in the south bake and those up north get all the goods storm wise. 

Out of interest, is there a reliable source for data on thunderstorm frequency per UK town available?  All I've witnessed is hearsay so far.  I'd be happy with something that goes back as little as five years.  

I'm sorry, I'm new to this game so I don't know what resources are available.  

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Not sure I expected to wake up to this...

IMG_1654.PNG

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Today could see a few potent storms pop up, especially if the sun can get to maximum work and lift those temperatures high enough. Local convergence will aid this also. Not quite a level one from estofex, but a decent zone of a 50% chance of lightning. 

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11 minutes ago, Jcweather said:

Not sure I expected to wake up to this...

IMG_1654.PNG

It is looking like the possibility of some heavy showers and thunderstorms affecting the South East tomorrow either from the remnants of French imports or home grown in the last of the hot, humid air.

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Nice pic of a storm over Denver, Colorado yesterday evening, the airport is visible under the wing. 

IMG_4462.JPG

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5 minutes ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

Today could see a few potent storms pop up, especially if the sun can get to maximum work and lift those temperatures high enough. Local convergence will aid this also. Not quite a level one from estofex, but a decent zone of a 50% chance of lightning. 

24C here already with clear skies, looking promising? 

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Louise Lear has just mentioned the possibility of some french imports in the early hours of tomorrow morning.

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Posted (edited)
10 minutes ago, stainesbloke said:

24C here already with clear skies, looking promising? 

Not looking bad in all honesty. Clear skies here too. The chances will be greater, the higher the temperature, which if the way it's going, could be higher than what some forecasts suggest. I think they were expecting more cloudcover, but that looks to have thinned and broke away pretty well since earlier this morning :) 

Edited by East_England_Stormchaser91
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3 minutes ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

Not looking bad in all honesty. Clear skies here too. The chances will be greater, the higher the temperature, which if the way it's going, could be higher than what some forecasts suggest. I think they were expecting more cloudcover, but that looks to have thinned and broke away pretty well since earlier this morning :) 

Could things actually go our way, for once? Can't believe how rare storms have become in the SE. The thundery stuff over France looks like it might just clip Kent, yet again. 

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Lots of convection trying to develop here amid blue skies and very temps 

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38 minutes ago, stainesbloke said:

Could things actually go our way, for once? Can't believe how rare storms have become in the SE. The thundery stuff over France looks like it might just clip Kent, yet again. 

Good things often happen unexpectedly! And I agree. We used to get so many decent daytime homegrowns too back when I was in school, particularly the earlier years. I remember some cracking afternoon storms always happening particularly as we were on the approach to the summer 6 week holidays. There was a few times where we would be practically held hostage at the school doors as the rain was so intense and lightning striking all over! The 90s hold some brilliant memories for me. 

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20 minutes ago, Harry said:

Lots of convection trying to develop here amid blue skies and very temps 

Clouds bubbling up and some pretty reasonable towers starting to grow just north of here. 

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I'm over in Droylsden, Manchester and the same is happening here.

20170709_114514.jpg

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Certainly some convection taking place now, got dark to the W and SW very quickly

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some beautiful plumes here.  This slight warning was justified.  This been quite year so far,  Northern half of Lincolnshire tends to just miss out but not this year I think we been in the action just much as the south of the county.

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Forecast is nice for this evening.. 596212f764013_ScreenShot2017-07-09at12_26_20.thumb.png.547b50744a3c5eeefdff68316d6669e4.png

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Sky's over London look threatening

IMG_20170709_123357.jpg

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Seems met no confidence today but have put weather warning Norfolk, Suffolk, Essex and Kent for monday

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