July 2017 C.E.T. Forecasts

[Summer Sun]

17.9 to the 7th

2.3 above the 61 to 90 average

1.8 above the 81 to 10 average

_____________________________________

Current high this month 17.9 on the 6th & 7th

Edited July 8, 2017 by Summer Sun

[DAVID SNOW]

34 minutes ago, Relativistic said:

I hope so. I miss 2013

Excluding the July though.

[Don]

2 hours ago, DAVID SNOW said:

Excluding the July though.

Well, that's when the train departed and since then it's gathered pace!

[Don]

5 hours ago, DAVID SNOW said:

Which will 'eventually' come off the rails.

Eventually, yes.  Hopefully the hot weather will cause the rails to buckle! 

[Roger J Smith]

Current GFS suggests July CET will sit around 17.5 by end of next week, then 17.0 by 20th, with signs of warmer weather coming back near the end of the 16-day run. Seems to be landing where most of us are waiting (16.7 to 18.0 collected most of the forecasts). 

[Man With Beard]

4 hours ago, Roger J Smith said:

Current GFS suggests July CET will sit around 17.5 by end of next week, then 17.0 by 20th, with signs of warmer weather coming back near the end of the 16-day run. Seems to be landing where most of us are waiting (16.7 to 18.0 collected most of the forecasts). 

Models are starting to push the Azores High back in even by mid July. I think we're headed for an 18C plus CET.

[Summer Sun]

17.9 to the 8th

2.2 above the 61 to 90 average

1.7above the 81 to 10 average

_____________________________________

Current high this month 17.9 on the 6th, 7th & 8th

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield 16.9C +1.9C above normal.

[Summer Sun]

18.0 to the 9th

2.3 above the 61 to 90 average

1.8 above the 81 to 10 average

_____________________________________

Current high this month 18.0 on the 9th

[NorthYorksWeather]

16.5c to the 9th, 0.7c above the 1981-2010 average.

Looking at BBC forecast for the next 5 days we may see it drop back to average.

[Roger J Smith]

Warmest year watch is probably plausible now, looking at the current holder (2014, 10.95 C) which was warm but not quite remarkably warm from August to December. 

As shown in an earlier post (see follow-up indicating 0.2 errors in data in that post), July 2017 needs to finish on 17.8 to bring 2017 into a tie for warmest January to July. 

Assuming that were to happen, then for 2017 to become the warmest year on record it would need to outperform these five monthly values from 2014 ...

AUG 14.9 _ SEP 15.1 _ OCT 12.5 _ NOV 8.6 _ DEC 5.2

Now in that series, August is quite cool and September very warm, October and November quite warm, December not far from recent median values (I speak of median rather than average because December 2010 distorts the averages of shorter intervals). 

We may find 2017 either a bit ahead or behind after July, but assuming we are level with 2014, this sequence would maintain the tie and represents an outcome fairly even relative to normal. 

AUG 16.5 _ SEP 14.5 _ OCT 11.5 _ NOV 8.0 _ DEC 5.8

This gives a benchmark that can be adjusted as actual values come in, for 2017 to remain in the running for warmest year. It should be noted that if 2014 had used Nov-Dec 2015 instead of its own months, it would have finished around 11.4 C. 

One final note on all this, it came to my attention by comparing Met Office annual averages with my data set, that they do not generate the annual averages from a straight average of the twelve monthly values but from an average value of all days of the year. For 2014 the average of the twelve monthly values is 10.92, for all 365 days it is 10.95, the listed value. The rounding of second decimal places appears to have shifted the raw average from near 10.93 to 10.92. Almost always the annual average of each year is going to run above the average of twelve months because of February being shorter. I have not taken this into consideration in comparing 2014 with 2017 but the two years have very similar Feb CET anyway, the remaining slight differences that might develop would be down to relative anomalies in 31 day and 30 day months. This looks to favour 2017 by perhaps 0.1 degree (our March and May offsetting a cooler January, expecting a similar July and very likely a warmer August). 

 

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield at 17.3C +2.2C above normal. Very dry so far which looks like ceasing tomorrow.

[cheeky_monkey]

here in Edmonton we are at 20.6c which is 4.6c above normal..has been a hot dry start to July..with ave 27.6C high and 13.6c low

[summer blizzard]

5 hours ago, cheeky_monkey said:

here in Edmonton we are at 20.6c which is 4.6c above normal..has been a hot dry start to July..with ave 27.6C high and 13.6c low

When do you guys fall below freezing again?

[Lettucing Gutted]

15 hours ago, cheeky_monkey said:

here in Edmonton we are at 20.6c which is 4.6c above normal..has been a hot dry start to July..with ave 27.6C high and 13.6c low

If that weather lasts too long, it will bring the Dust Bowl back.

[Summer Sun]

17.9 to the 10th

2.2 above the 61 to 90 average

1.7 above the 81 to 10 average

_____________________________________

Current high this month 18.0 on the 9th

[cheeky_monkey]

15 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

When do you guys fall below freezing again?

Next week probably ...but usually the first air frost will happen in early to mid September and the first ice day will be at some point in October.

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield at 17.1C +1.9C above normal

[NorthYorksWeather]

16.1c here to the 11th, 0.3c above the 1981-2010 average.

We have now surpassed the average rainfall already by the 11th so another wet month.

[Summer Sun]

17.6 to the 11th

1.8 above the 61 to 90 average

1.3 above the 81 to 10 average

_____________________________________

Current high this month 18.0 on the 9th

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield 16.8C +1.5C above normal.

[Styx]

Just for comparison with the CET and Edmonton figure, we are -1.7 below the 81 to 10 average in Hobart. It's a big enough margin near the middle of the month to barrack the month on to hold steady, so it ends with a nice cold mean. But being realistic, I don't even have to look at the charts to know that there is a very good chance that this cold monthly anomaly will be wiped away with a warm end to July...I have seen that story play out too many times! But here's hoping for a historically cold July!  

[Summer Sun]

17.5 to the 12th

1.7 above the 61 to 90 average

1.2 above the 81 to 10 average

_____________________________________

Current high this month 18.0 on the 9th

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield at 16.6C +1.3C above normal. Rainfall only 10.4mm 18.2% of normal

[Roger J Smith]

Expect CET to rise gradually to about 18.5 by middle of next week then back down into high 17 range by near end of the month as per 12z GFS. Saturday 15th could see means near 20.5 then 19 or 20 each day to about Wed 20th. After that more like 16 or 17 most days, a few near 18. Last day of course unreliable but it does show a below normal outcome for the 29th (gasp). Probably won't happen though.