July 2017 C.E.T. Forecasts

[Chris.R]

Oh dear, forgot. 

 18.2 please 

[Summer Sun]

17.4 to the 1st

1.7 above the 61 to 90 average

*81 to 10 average not available at the time of posting*

[Stargazer]

Oops - got caught out again! 17.3 please.

[Roger J Smith]

 

July CET 1981-2010 averages, and extremes 1772-2016

date _ CET _ (cum) ____ Max, Min 1772-2016

01 __ 15.9 __ 15.9 ___ 24.6 (2015) __ 10.4 (1773)

02 __ 15.9 __ 15.9 ___ 22.8 (1976) __ 11.3 (1821)

03 __ 15.9 __ 15.9 ___ 24.6 (1976) __ 10.1 (1907)

04 __ 16.0 __ 15.9 ___ 24.7 (1976) __ 10.0 (1965)

05 __ 16.4 __ 16.0 ___ 24.0 (1852) __ 10.7 (1920)

06 __ 16.3 __ 16.1 ___ 23.3 (1976) __ 11.3 (1877)

07 __ 16.3 __ 16.1 __ 22.6 (1923,1976) _ 11.1 (1877)

08 __ 16.6 __ 16.2 __ 21.4 (1870,1976) _ 10.6 (1823)

09 __ 16.3 __ 16.2 ___ 21.6 (1921) __ 11.0 (1856)

10 __ 16.6 __ 16.2 ___ 22.1 (1921) __ 11.2 (1993)

11 __ 16.7 __ 16.3 ___ 22.6 (1783) ___ 9.4 (1888)

12 __ 16.5 __ 16.3 ___ 23.7 (1923) __ 11.0 (1840)

13 __ 16.6 __ 16.3 ___ 24.5 (1808) __ 10.2 (1840)

14 __ 16.8 __ 16.3 ___ 24.4 (1808) __ 11.7 (1961)

15 __ 17.0 __ 16.4 ___ 23.7 (1825) __ 11.5 (1883)

16 __ 16.8 __ 16.4 ___ 22.7 (2003) __ 11.5 (1823)

17 __ 16.3 __ 16.4 ___ 22.3 (1834) __ 11.0 (1892)

18 __ 16.5 __ 16.4 ___ 23.3 (1825) __ 10.1 (1863)

19 __ 16.9 __ 16.4 ___ 24.5 (2006) __ 10.6 (1892)

20 __ 17.2 __ 16.5 ___ 23.5 (2016) ___ 8.7 (1836)

21 __ 16.9 __ 16.5 ___ 23.1 (1868) __ 11.3 (1902)

22 __ 16.9 __ 16.5 ___ 23.2 (1868) __ 11.5 (1902)

23 __ 16.9 __ 16.5 ___ 22.4 (1989) __ 10.1 (1843)

24 __ 16.6 __ 16.5 ___ 23.9 (1818) __ 11.1 (1843)

25 __ 17.0 __ 16.6 ___ 22.7 (2006) __ 10.9 (1920)

26 __ 17.2 __ 16.6 ___ 23.2 (2006) __ 11.0 (1884)

27 __ 17.2 __ 16.6 ___ 21.9 (1948) __ 10.6 (1867)

28 __ 17.4 __ 16.6 ___ 23.7 (1948) __ 11.8 (1886,1891)

29 __ 17.7 __ 16.7 ___ 25.2 (1948) __ 11.0 (1816)

30 __ 17.4 __ 16.7 ___ 23.1 (1948) __ 10.6 (1786)

31 __ 17.2 __ 16.7 __ 23.4 (1943,1995) __ 10.9 (1841)

[NorthYorksWeather]

15.7C here to the 2nd, 0.1c below the 1981-2010 average.

[Summer Sun]

17.0 to the 2nd

1.4 above the 61 to 90 average

1.1 above the 81 to 10 average

_____________________________________

Current high this month 17.4 to the 1st

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield 16.3C +1.6C above normal.

[Roger J Smith]

I mentioned in the June thread that 2017 was tied with 1846 and behind 2007 as second warmest year to date (Jan to June mean CET).

These are the top twelve for January to July and what 2017 needs to tie them. 

YEAR ___ Jan-Jul mean CET ___ 2017 needs to tie

2014 _______ 10.67 ___________ 17.6

1846 _______ 10.51 ___________ 16.5

1733 _______ 10.50 ___________ 16.4

2007 _______ 10.49 ___________ 16.3

1990 _______ 10.46 ___________ 16.1

1868 _______ 10.43 ___________ 15.9

1834 _______ 10.40 ___________ 15.7

1686, 1822 __ 10.36 ___________ 15.4

1775 _______ 10.34 ___________ 15.3

1779 _______ 10.33 ___________ 15.2

1921 _______ 10.31 ___________ 15.0

[Summer Sun]

16.9 to the 3rd

1.4 above the 61 to 90 average

1.0 above the 81 to 10 average

_____________________________________

Current high this month 17.4 to the 1st

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield down to 16.1C +1.4C above normal.

[Roger J Smith]

My calculations above for various outcomes to reach top twelve positions January to July need to be corrected as a result of one data point in my excel file (I spotted this when comparing some other data today). 

As a result, each outcome needs to be 0.2 higher than stated to tie the years in the table. Even so, most of these outcomes are lower than most of us have predicted for this month, so it would not be surprising if we are in second or third place after July, as we were after June (that was also very slightly out as a result, and we are not tied with 1846 after June but slightly behind 2014 in fourth). 

[NorthYorksWeather]

15.8c here to the 4th, bang on the 1981-2010 average.

Looks like the mean will go above average as we head into the weekend.

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield up to 16.3C +1.7C above normal.

[snowray]

No CET today then?

[Summer Sun]

17.2 to the 5th

1.7 above the 61 to 90 average

1.2 above the 81 to 10 average

_____________________________________

Current high this month 17.4 to the 1st

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield up to 16.5C +1.7C above normal.

[Summer Sun]

17.9 to the 6th

2.4 above the 61 to 90 average

1.8 above the 81 to 10 average

_____________________________________

Current high this month 17.9 to the 6th

[seaside 60]

Who said the first week in July looks really bad, even the northerners are well above average already.

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield now up to 17.1C +2.2C above normal.

[Don]

3 hours ago, seaside 60 said:

Who said the first week in July looks really bad, even the northerners are well above average already.

There's just no stopping the above average temperatures this year.  It's been like a runaway train!

[DAVID SNOW]

15 hours ago, Don said:

There's just no stopping the above average temperatures this year.  It's been like a runaway train!

Which will 'eventually' come off the rails.

[Froze were the Days]

ECM 10 day charts have generally been coolest at around 8-10 days but as we all know not that accurate, the first week of Wimbledon (the week just gone) at one stage was looking coolish with Pm westerlies but as we got nearer the time frame a backtrack to a very slack very warm westerly/south westerly evolved which seems to be the story of this summer. (although in June a breezier theme).

Edited July 8, 2017 by Froze were the Days

[NorthYorksWeather]

16.3c here to the 7th, 0.5c above the 1981-2010 average.

Only 7mm short of usual July rainfall to the 7th after Thursdays thunderstorm.

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield down to 17C +2C above normal.

[Relativistic]

2 hours ago, DAVID SNOW said:

Which will 'eventually' come off the rails.

I hope so. I miss 2013