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July 2017 C.E.T. Forecasts


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Now that the CET figure is "finally" in.I have this months figures.

Monthly - 4 players got 16.8c bang on. Weather 26, Changing Skies and simshady.

Seasonal - All Change at the top, with the top 3 vitualsphere, Changing Skies and simshady.

Overall the top 3 is

1st daveshug (still top)
2nd I remember Atlantic 252 (was 3rd)
3rd reef (was 7th)

July 2017 CET.xlsx
July 2017 CET.pdf

Edited by J10
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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

Updated report for the two recent 30-year normals and Consensus in the scoring.

 

Table of forecast errors and position points (Normal 1987-2016 played Dec as 1986-2015)

Error stat is forecast value minus actual value. Negative value means normal or consensus too low. 

... Positive means normal or consensus too high.

Errors are then averaged by absolute values, points are totalled.

Positions are relative to all players who have entered at least 7/8 months so far.

Rankings for months before July can be seen in the June post (last one in thread).

The July rankings are 5th for the two Normals (16.7) and 20th for Consensus (17.2).

 

FORECASTER ____ Dec _ Jan _ Feb _ Mar _ Apr _ May _ Jun _ JUL _____ mean ___ position

Normal 1981-2010 _  -1.4 _ +0.4_ -1.7_ -2.1_ -0.4 _ -1.5 _ -1.5 _ -0.1 ______ 1.14 ____ 13th

__ points _________ 79.6_ 69.9_ 56,1_ 59.0_ 86.8 _49.7__7.5 _ 93.7 _____ 502.3 ____ 9th

Normal 1987-2016 _  -1.0 _ +0.6_ -1.3_ -2.0__ -0.1 _-1.4_ -1.5 _ -0.1 ______ 1.00 ____ t-7th

__ points _________ 89.8_ 58.0_ 67.4_ 61.8_  98.4_ 53.0__7.5 _93.7 _____ 529.6 ____6th

Consensus _______  -2.1 _ -0.1_ -1.8_ -2.2 __ +0.9 _-1.3_ -0.5 _+0.4 ______ 1.16 ____ t-14th

__ points _________ 50.0 _95.7 _52.4 _56.2 _57.1 _56.4 _72.4_ 70.1 ______510.3 ___ 9th

 

Our group consensus has now settled into the small gap between Normal 1981-2010 and the slightly higher ranking Normal 1987-2016. You would be very close to first place if you always predicted Normal 1987-2016 plus 0.5 deg. 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

I have recalculated the year to date CET means from weighted monthly values, a slight change from the simple average used in earlier tables. On that basis, 2017 is still running second behind 2014 and here's the top twelve, the number in brackets refers to position at end of full year.

 1. 2014 __ 10.72 (1)

 2. 2017 __ 10.57 (?)

 3. 1846 __ 10.55 (31)

 4. 1733 __ 10.54 (t-15)

 5. 2007 __ 10.53 (t-15)

 6. 1990 __ 10.50 (5)

 7. 1834 __ 10.46 (t-13)

 8. 1868 __ 10.45 (20)

 9. 1686 __ 10.40 (32)

10. 1822 __ 10.39 (t-43)

t11. 1921 __10.38 (t-13)

t11. 1775 __10.38 (t-35)

_______________________________________________

 

These top twelve years generally lost a bit of ground although 2014 maintained top spot and 1990 held its position (it was 5th Jan to July before this year). Just one note, the Hadley site lists 10.51 as the CET to date, this does not match their own data so I can't explain that discrepancy. If you average the 212 days instead of using the weighted mean of months, it comes out to 10.56, and if you take the raw average of months (which they don't in their other work) it is still a bit higher than 10.51. Maybe they are applying a correction factor that they will later apply to the monthly data. 

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Posted
  • Location: Skirlaugh, East Yorkshire
  • Location: Skirlaugh, East Yorkshire
On ‎10‎/‎08‎/‎2017 at 19:10, Roger J Smith said:

I have recalculated the year to date CET means from weighted monthly values, a slight change from the simple average used in earlier tables. On that basis, 2017 is still running second behind 2014 and here's the top twelve, the number in brackets refers to position at end of full year.

 1. 2014 __ 10.72 (1)

 2. 2017 __ 10.57 (?)

 3. 1846 __ 10.55 (31)

 4. 1733 __ 10.54 (t-15)

 5. 2007 __ 10.53 (t-15)

 6. 1990 __ 10.50 (5)

 7. 1834 __ 10.46 (t-13)

 8. 1868 __ 10.45 (20)

 9. 1686 __ 10.40 (32)

10. 1822 __ 10.39 (t-43)

t11. 1921 __10.38 (t-13)

t11. 1775 __10.38 (t-35)

_______________________________________________

 

These top twelve years generally lost a bit of ground although 2014 maintained top spot and 1990 held its position (it was 5th Jan to July before this year). Just one note, the Hadley site lists 10.51 as the CET to date, this does not match their own data so I can't explain that discrepancy. If you average the 212 days instead of using the weighted mean of months, it comes out to 10.56, and if you take the raw average of months (which they don't in their other work) it is still a bit higher than 10.51. Maybe they are applying a correction factor that they will later apply to the monthly data. 

The 10.51 is the average of the months to 2dp here:

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_mean_2017

3.95 + 6.09 + 8.67 + 8.87 + 13.21 + 16.04 + 16.77 / 7 = 10.51.

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