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Model Output Discussions 12z 01/06/2017


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Despite the usual doom and gloom, the GEFS 00z mean shows the Azores high building / ridging in as we go further into August bringing a more summery spell, at least to the southern half of the UK which would be welcome respite from the current unsettled / atlantic dominated pattern!:)

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Edited by Frosty.
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An unseasonally wet, cool and windy day amidst an underwhelming week of weather does not a summer make. Much as anticipated through the second half of Spring, the hand-over to Summer sees the atm

There have been some strange observations made today, as too often occurs in this thread whatever the time of year, and largely based on the usual knee-jerk response to longer term suggested NWP.

You always seem to jump in on my posts, along with a few others. Why don't you try giving your assessment of the models instead of picking holes in others efforts!

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To be honest, it's less a sense of "doom and gloom" as some of the eternally optimistic put it but the OP continues run after run to maintain the unsettled picture. 

Here's the OP at T=240:

gfs-0-240.png

Here's the Control at the same time - even worse:

gens-0-1-240.png

Looking at the Panel at the same time, I count 7 members with HP dominance so it's not an insignificant cluster by any means and I'm sure the Mean is reflective of it (it has to be):

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=1&ech=240

The point is, it's a cluster, yes and one to be acknowledged but with the OP and Control not wanting to show any significant HP influence you have to wonder what the genuine direction of travel is at present. 

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11 minutes ago, stodge said:

To be honest, it's less a sense of "doom and gloom" as some of the eternally optimistic put it but the OP continues run after run to maintain the unsettled picture. 

Here's the OP at T=240:

gfs-0-240.png

Here's the Control at the same time - even worse:

gens-0-1-240.png

Looking at the Panel at the same time, I count 7 members with HP dominance so it's not an insignificant cluster by any means and I'm sure the Mean is reflective of it (it has to be):

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=1&ech=240

The point is, it's a cluster, yes and one to be acknowledged but with the OP and Control not wanting to show any significant HP influence you have to wonder what the genuine direction of travel is at present. 

I'm not eternally optimistic!..i'm just describing what the models are showing, as I always do! The Gefs 00z mean is still looking encouraging further into august, at least for the south!!

Edited by Frosty.
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7 showing high pressure, which means 13 arent. To have to favour the majority, especially when ecm and even the extended UKMO aren't showing anything decent. I'm trying to remain positive, but really struggling!

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5 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

I'm not eternally optimistic!..i'm just showing what the models are showing, as I always do! The Gefs 00z mean is still looking encouraging further into august, at least for the south!!

As am I, my friend. I pointed out last night the 12Z had some encouragement through the GFS Members in terms of a significant cluster showing the Azores HP trying to ridge NE but I'd make two observations from this morning's output:

1) Neither the OP nor Control want to know and we can't ignore that.

2) The cluster showing Azores HP dominant has declined numerically overnight. It's a significant cluster (about a third of the members) and that in itself influences the Mean but it's also in low-res so just as if a third of the members were touting an E'ly at T+288 in January, everyone would be sceptical the same rules should apply now.

Next week is gone if you want settled and warm conditions and the following week is looking very iffy at the moment. 

You may well be right that the second half of August will be better - can't say one way or the other but it's a valid point just as those arguing for the continuation of Atlantic influence may be right as well.

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On 29/07/2017 at 08:14, mb018538 said:

I'm glad someone else posted this! I thought Darren Bert had been on the wacky baccy when I saw him forecasting this last night! Where the hell are they getting this forecast from!??

Well you can blame MeteoGroup for that forecast! (over 7 days away)...I can't ever remember the Beeb putting forecasts out that far ahead, they certainly don't go past 5 days ahead in the winter with specifics.

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47 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Huge split on ECM ensemble clusters between D8/D10, 4 clusters ranging from the very worst (super trough close to the UK) to the very best (cut off trough to our south with heights above us into the UK). More runs needed!

I appreciate you sharing the link the other day, and regularly check these clusters. It does appear the signal for settled into mid term is turning into less favoured option with every update. 

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10 minutes ago, draztik said:

 It does appear the signal for settled into mid term is turning into less favoured option with every update. 

That's the impression I'm getting too,  the settled mid / longer term signal is downgrading all the time, especially for the n / nw.:)

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Just now, Frosty. said:

That's the impression I'm getting too,  the settled mid / longer term signal is downgrading all the time.:)

Well there is one thing about you, Frosty - you will continue to look for silver linings and I do hope, for what it's worth, we do see some settled periods into August. Variety is what I look for... unsettled throughout certainly not. 

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3 hours ago, Froze were the Days said:

Well you can blame MeteoGroup for that forecast! (over 7 days away)...I can't ever remember the Beeb putting forecasts out that far ahead, they certainly don't go past 5 days ahead in the winter with specifics.

What has MeteoGroup got to do with the beeb forecast? Still provided by UKMO.

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22 minutes ago, draztik said:

Well there is one thing about you, Frosty - you will continue to look for silver linings and I do hope, for what it's worth, we do see some settled periods into August. Variety is what I look for... unsettled throughout certainly not. 

Yes I try to lift the gloom, I fully agree with your comments regarding August.:)

Edited by Polar Maritime
To move discussion on..
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8 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

I thought the contract went out to MeteoGroup for providing the BBC with their data etc...as opposed to the MetO?

Still the Met Office. Meteogroup hasn't taken over yet.

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39 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

I thought the contract went out to MeteoGroup for providing the BBC with their data etc...as opposed to the MetO?

The UKMO still supply the bbc at this point, it won't be changing until later in the year. 

On that note though, can we get this back to the topic of the models, there are topics about the beeb elsewhere, including one specifically about this stuff. 

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The Gefs 6z mean has watered down and pushed back the more settled signal with the azores ridge influence restricted to the far south in the depths of FI while most of the UK continues more changeable / unsettled and cooler with a broadly westerly upper flow.

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About the only positive thing one can say about the ecm this evening is that the weekend doesn't look too bad.

Scattered showers over the next two days before the fronts from the approaching low arrive over Wales and the south west by 12z Wednesday.

The whole caboodle tracks north east so a very wet and windy day on Wednesday and by 12z on Thursday the low is west of the Hebrides thus most of Britain south of Scotland in a strong westerly flow portending heavy showers in many places

The low continues to slowly track north east and fill thus the westerly winds veering and abating and showers not anywhere near as frequent, mainly confined to the north, and by 12z Saturday the low is a nondescript feature over Norway and the Azores ridge is pushing in from the south west.

The ridge hangs on through Sunday but is then brushed aside as the fronts from the next trough impact the north and west of the country by midday Monday.

ecm_mslp_uv850_natl_5.thumb.png.d4087e401a2ce28f386855fc13f036a5.pngecm_mslp_uv850_natl_8.thumb.png.40066dd75694048701b3be3dc498062a.pngecm_mslp_uv850_natl_9.thumb.png.6a5d9ebae7fea5b21d3f4ec0914745ef.png

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Hello Folks and sorry for the Bum Pic again ,I cant delete nothing on my laptop:rofl: A fast moving jet stream means plenty of weather ,wind and rain but that wont last to long as there will be plenty of hot summer sunshine in between the weather systems...

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ECM ensembles now 39 out of 51 going for an unsettled D7-D10 period.

D11-D15 much more mixed and generally improving - but there does seem to be a pattern of the most unsettled cluster in FI becoming the pattern of choice once we hit the period covered by the op run.

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Last night's anomalies although still indicating some change in the ext period are showing no sign of any permanent high pressure influence from the Azores. Currently the pattern indicated in the earlier period shows the Azores pushing north in the western Atlantic with the trough digging a fair way south adjacent to the UK. Thus an upper flow north of west and a tendency for systems to track down over the UK keeping the latter cool and unsettled. In the later period the flow is still forecast to flatten out to a more westerly regime, and the Atlantic becoming more positively anomalous with the trough weakening and shifting east,  which would probably indicate the Azores taking closer order in the south but still a tendency towards unsettled.and temps no great shakes.

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This morning's gfs run would not appear adverse to following the 6-10 anomaly script.and is not a long way from yesterday and could be worse given the overall pattern  Anyway Wednesday midday sees the fronts associated with the low to the west of Ireland encroaching from the west  These quickly traverse the country and by 12z Thursday the low is over north east Scotland with the UK in a showery westerly, many of which could be quite wintry.

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The low moves away quickly east thus the flow veers and slackens leading to the showers becoming less frequent and by midday Saturday the Azores HP is beginning to ridge north east  The ridge hangs on through Sunday but then the scenario already discussed applies  The strong jet running around the amplifying Azores HP in the western Atlantic delivers the next low on Monday

gfs_ptype_slp_eur3_25.thumb.png.bced14bf15e8a97bd4a7dda216f9b024.pnggfs_uv250_natl_29.thumb.png.3183943537facb9728eb13bbf27e2421.pnggfs_ptype_slp_eur3_29.thumb.png.acd58c18878d6ae22fedbd2348d5eb10.png

And then the sequence starts again.

gfs_ptype_slp_eur3_41.thumb.png.c7c7e83641d9bdd44345d821afbc24f6.png

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All 3 in the same ball park at day in the mid range, ECM/GFS/GEM

ECM1-192.GIF?31-12   gfs-0-192.png   gem-0-192.png?00

Signs that we will see the pattern amplify, trouble is the models are tending to develop a slow moving shallow trough over the UK with the Azores high ridging north with heights remaining fiarly high over the continent. Given some decent agreement across the models for this kind of solution, we could hope for two things, firstly longer term that the Azores high could eventually build towards the UK from the west offering some drier conditions though not particularly warm. The second would be a correction westwards of the pattern which could allow warmer air to be drawn in from the south. Small crumbs on the table, but at least a little hope of moving away from a rather persistet spell of unsettled weather that we are currently experiencing.

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Just to add, or not :), to what CS has said above. The ecm does follow the gfs script more or less until the beginning of next week when it introduces slightly more amplification with the rough digging quite a way south over Iberia thus a surface low doesn't materialise over the UK which becomes centred in a col. But it does activate thundery activity over southern France moving NE into Germany. The Azores can then ridge NE into Britain. For what it's worth I think the indications from this morning's runs quite positive keeping in mind the overall pattern.

ecm_z500_anom_natl_9.thumb.png.8a44e4ade5fde39d065ac25cc7c34f98.pngecm_mslp_uv850_natl_9.thumb.png.8ad3273608b67c426f47bea503231c29.png

Edited by knocker
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Well it's welcome to see the ECM slackening off the trough by D6, leading to a much better D7-D10 picture, but it's a bit baffling too - its ensembles had shown this as the middle option a few days ago but totally dropped it for the D7-D10 period in the past 24 hours. And now it's back! The swings and roundabouts...

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The GFS 0Z shows the Jet is determined to target the UK for most of the next eight days and it's much the same beyond that. The current unsettled weather pattern is not going to change much without a change in the direction of the jet...

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Theres only one thing for it - we must find a way to tow the UK down to join the Azores in mid Atlantic!   Mind you, I don't know if they get any snow down there?   :rolleyes:

 

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