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Model Output Discussions 12z 01/06/2017


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Question for the forecasters! We've got two boot fairs to do, Saturday and Sunday in North Kent, does anyone have an idea of whereabouts the rain band might be at that time? Clearing away or still across the south east.

 

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An unseasonally wet, cool and windy day amidst an underwhelming week of weather does not a summer make. Much as anticipated through the second half of Spring, the hand-over to Summer sees the atm

There have been some strange observations made today, as too often occurs in this thread whatever the time of year, and largely based on the usual knee-jerk response to longer term suggested NWP.

You always seem to jump in on my posts, along with a few others. Why don't you try giving your assessment of the models instead of picking holes in others efforts!

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The ECM charts see Low pressure domination from Wednesday with a terrible pattern for settled weather. The Azores ridge going west into Greenland. Good news longer term maybe for winter fans but August 2008 comes to mind when seeing charts like that.

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ECM op tonight just keeps them coming... (the lows, that is!)

Nothing like the ensembles from this morning in its latter stages - but very much like last night's ensembles.

Another series of 00Z run Vs 12Z runs??? Which one normally wins, if there's indeed a winner??

I note the GEFS is going pretty fervently for a build of high pressure over the UK by T216/T240, much like the ECM control did this morning.

I'd personally say our direction of travel after the midweek low is 50/50. Overall, the ensembles and op runs of the past day are just slightly towards higher pressure over the UK, but as it's always easier to keep a pattern rather than break one, you'd have to give slightly more weighting on any models to the status quo.

Could be nicish next weekend, could be a washout, could be a bit of both.

Best forget the weekend to come for many of us, two terrors in a row here in the south. Though ironically I'm going to miss it tomorrow by going on holiday in the north :)

Edited by Man With Beard
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Still no agreement on precisely how the evolution of next weeks low is going to pan out, not surprising at this range, but the general theme is not looking unpromising keeping in mind that next week was never going to be a ray of sunshine.

By 12z Monday the ecm has developed the low south of Greenland whilst the UK is still under the influence of the current low as it fills and moves east. Thus the UK in a showery westerly albeit the showers far less frequent on Tuesday but the low to the wrest is tracking rapidly east and by 12z Wednesday is west of Ireland with the fronts over Ireland and Cornwall. The whole package moves east in the next 24 hours bringing some very wet and windy weather to everyone

Midday Friday sees a broad area of low pressure orientated over the UK to points north east with disturbances running around the circulation which track into southern England. Eventually the low pressure moves east and gives way to the Azores ridge but, unlike this morning's run  the Azores builds too far west and a new trough whips around the north of it on the jet and slips south east to impact the UK Sunday/Monday

I feel this is a very knife edge scenario and could easily revert to this morning' take.

ecm_mslp_uv850_natl_6.thumb.png.3690be73400a2d6944af4be7d2f7a620.pngecm_mslp_uv850_natl_8.thumb.png.070ed2e60c278458a2d3e98d40e081bf.pngecm_mslp_uv850_natl_10.thumb.png.9edb7b3e335dc40fbcb655a044a963db.png

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Evening, Low in charge thanks to the Atlantic,  good news for some not so good for others , but there will be plenty of fine weather at times during this week . Who wants that Disgusting Spanish heat and air :rofl:Well unless they can send us some thunderstorms:rofl:

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ALL_emean_phase_full.gifu.anom.30.5S-5N.gif

Models are depicting the MJO essentially hitting a wall in the form of those C-Pac trade winds which now have increasing ensemble support to simply shrug off that approach (I know it doesn't truly work like that but I'm going for dramatic effect here). In fact, why not go the whole hog;

Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to hell on Earth for summer holidaymakers.

 

Okay, now for the disclaimer;

Unless the models are handling this incorrectly - as in any or all of the MJO, the interaction with trades or the manner in which the pattern responds over here (it tends to change a bit in August compared to June-July).

These are pretty dark times with just a few chinks of light such as 'Tuesday might be pleasant enough' and 'still a chance of warmth in the SE on Wednesday' but surely some day things will recover. Probably in September knowing our luck :laugh:.

When looking back at what went wrong, the name of the head villain is 'standing La Nina-like atmospheric wave'. Not as catchy as most but an accurate description of the culprit.

Edited by Singularity
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What a terrible set of runs tonight - really developing that low and slamming it into the UK, when previously it was shown to not be anywhere near as bad. We need some serious improvements on the 00z runs!

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The EPS mean anomaly does rather give some credence to the det run.this evening but the only possible saving grace is the Azores does take closer order post T240 albeit still centred to the south west so with the weakening trough moving east a more settled period still looks okay, certainly in the south. Roasting it won't be with trending around average.

ecm_eps_z500a_5d_nh_11.thumb.png.8e24d7925e9c592d91d69ccc2299fb50.pngecm_eps_z500a_nh_11.thumb.png.685f71e750fd07c312df375600cc7f21.pngecm_eps_t850a_5d_natl_11.thumb.png.a402702b1389b730a36ac5c9cdcb4739.png

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Yeah going from the models in general since last week a change for the worse definitely happened. This August will probably be like June 2012 knowing our luck. Settled weather will be rare until September. The Met Office will probably get on board soon and accept that high pressure and warm weather won't return for god knows how long. Certainly not for the next 4 weeks. Summer is definitely over now :sorry: Meanwhile Europe will continue to roast in 25 - 30 degrees we will get battered by endless rain, howling winds, below average temperatures and floods with no end in sight for at least a month if not more now. Sigh.

Edited by wishingforsnow
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Although there have been some indications of late of more influence from the Azores and a weakening trough and trough feeder scenario in the medium term, we drastically need some confirming of this in a realistic time frame so here's hoping today will continue in the right direction.. In the mean time there is no great point in attempting to gild the lily so onwards and upwards.

I imagine everyone is familiar with the pattern this weekend (awaiting the imminent  arrival of the next batch of rain in these parts) so on to the analysis at 12z on Monday where we see the area of low pressure receding NE, albeit the UK still in a showery regime, and with the quite intense surface low that will effect us south of Greenland.

gfs_ptype_slp_eur3_12.thumb.png.3e9be5e9cf373efe413cd00e4a526762.png

Then a brief respite on Tuesday but the low to the west has been steadily tracking east on a strong west-east jet and by 12z Wednesday it around 350km west of Ireland with the fronts already impacting same and Cornwall. Also, and quite relevant the jet has established a conduit for systems to track NNE in 'support' of the main low later in the week.

gfs_ptype_slp_eur3_19.thumb.png.6a44c06ad5cb339800211c9a90a2af37.pnggfs_uv250_natl_19.thumb.png.3015280f2b94bf6839221539f1903f21.png

From here things get a tad complicated, The main low continues to track ENE to be over Scotland by 12z Thursday ensuring a wet and windy day for all  By Friday this low has become quite distorted to the NE but fear not, the next trough has arrived, courtesy of the previously mentioned conduit, and  phases in with the old low  to bring a new, complex area of low pressure with more showery rain over the UK on saturday and Sunday and a distinctly cool weekend.

gfs_ptype_slp_eur3_27.thumb.png.d5604e4fdca889296cc9e4e3991308a9.pnggfs_ptype_slp_eur3_32.thumb.png.495f3c86f5324c2c1e3482c662c93641.png

This is about the time the Azores needs to stand up and be counted and to disrupt the west-east energy transfer. This morning's GEFS anomaly is still inconclusive with Azores taking slightly closer order but still a quite strong westerly upper flow so one suspects very much a N/s split on this evidence.

gefs_z500a_5d_nh_53.thumb.png.fc4769e989b58ed2e9204764701f581a.png

 

 

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Although varying in detail the ecm is definitely singing from the same hymn sheet as the gfs. It takes the main low rather quickly east at the end of the week but still has the supporting feature tracking in bringing rain and quite strong winds on Saturday and to a lesser extent on Sunday, as well as being quite cool. And more to the point, post the weekend  it still insists on swinging the next low around the ridging Azores to be between southern Ireland and Cornwall at the end of the run.

ecm_mslp_uv850_natl_7.thumb.png.2984980727aca1c39a00fcbee3c44364.pngecm_mslp_uv850_natl_9.thumb.png.3d5c2fa41d89bf96708c4e557b7e8fa2.pngecm_mslp_uv850_natl_11.thumb.png.542dcfd0d2c3482b692f9d13970e030f.png

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7 hours ago, Spah1 said:

Which model will the Beeb be using to be able for them to predict this then? 

IMG_3224.PNG

I'm glad someone else posted this! I thought Darren Bert had been on the wacky baccy when I saw him forecasting this last night! Where the hell are they getting this forecast from!??

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10 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

I'm glad someone else posted this! I thought Darren Bert had been on the wacky baccy when I saw him forecasting this last night! Where the hell are they getting this forecast from!??

Must be rather confident if they are showing that graphic.... given its a week away. So their own internals must be at odds with the other output we can see.... tho there was suggestions of ridging into August - which is still present on GEFS - tho seemingly, that signal is being somewhat diluted. 

Edited by draztik
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For next weekend, it is fair to say that the ECM is making much more of the next low in the Atlantic, the GFSand UKMO have that trough there but only the ECM has been air spliing into this alowing the low to deepen. That said it is more likely than not that another spell of rain is likely at some point over next weekend. 

UW144-21.GIF?29-06   gfs-0-144.png   ECM1-144.GIF?29-12

I must admit I can't see a route out of there frankly rather zonal looking patter with areas of low pressure crossing the country. Ensembles look pretty flat going forward so like others at the moment I cannot see something significantly drier on the cards at the moment.

ECM ens

EDM1-144.GIF?29-12   EDM1-192.GIF?29-12   EDM1-240.GIF?29-12

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29 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

The difference between ECM and UKMO extended at t168 is pretty significant

ecm2.2017080500_168_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.4153925a75748344c65b74881da8e24f.pngukm2.2017080500_168_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.d1ec56fed18f8c88c3e0a33f6e9e3e2b.png

I see the UKMO shows a hurricane towards the east Caribbean while the ECM has just a tropical low much further east.

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7 minutes ago, karyo said:

I see the UKMO shows a hurricane towards the east Caribbean while the ECM has just a tropical low much further east.

I think we need a hurricane to plough through and disrupt the current pattern of the jet- this happened in August 2014 with poor results for the UK, but in all honesty it can't make things any worse right now.

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1 minute ago, Scorcher said:

I think we need a hurricane to plough through and disrupt the current pattern of the jet- this happened in August 2014 with poor results for the UK, but in all honesty it can't make things any worse right now.

Careful what you wish for though, hurricanes shooting up north can pump a lot of unwanted warmth in the already fragile Arctic ice.

By the way, the ECM has a massive typhoon hitting Japan in 9 days time while the GFS tracks the typhoon just east of Japan.

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10 hours ago, Spah1 said:

Which model will the Beeb be using to be able for them to predict this then? 

IMG_3224.PNG

Certainly not the ECM or GFS. Could be one of those predictions they quickly forget about.

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