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Model Output Discussions 12z 01/06/2017


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27 minutes ago, Gael_Force said:

JMA update not seeing much change through August.

Y201707.D2612.png

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/gmd/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/1mE/map1/pztmap.php

Need to look to the tropics for a kick to the pattern.

 

Well the convectively active phase of a monstrous Kelvin wave will interact w/the current flurry of East Pacific tropical disturbances o/next 2d. H/t MV

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An unseasonally wet, cool and windy day amidst an underwhelming week of weather does not a summer make. Much as anticipated through the second half of Spring, the hand-over to Summer sees the atm

There have been some strange observations made today, as too often occurs in this thread whatever the time of year, and largely based on the usual knee-jerk response to longer term suggested NWP.

You always seem to jump in on my posts, along with a few others. Why don't you try giving your assessment of the models instead of picking holes in others efforts!

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Confidence is increasing for a more settled spell to develop during next month, the GEFS 6z mean shows this too with the Azores high building in.:)

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38 minutes ago, knocker said:

Nice little bomb which could bring some gales to the NW depending on the precise track.

gfs_ptype_slp_eur3_15.thumb.png.ea61c79e7657251014236a95969e3dcb.pnggfs_ptype_slp_eur3_19.thumb.png.7c68435ca51042ff296f97e5b452d1ce.pnggfs_ptype_slp_eur3_27.thumb.png.1f426a81ad1a694be24ecacd6efd77a6.png 

Very rare for this time of year as well.

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Not many comments on the Gfs 12z, I guess because although pressure rises for a short time in low res,  there is a fly in the ointment in the form of a shallow trough which drifts east over the UK and only at the end of the run does pressure start to rise again. My advice would be to not get hung up about individual op runs and stick with the mean which shows the general idea of the azores high ridging in during august.

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It's all about baby steps, the GEFS 12z mean also indicates support for the Azores high / ridge building our way as we go further into August.:)

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Edited by Frosty.
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12_144_mslp850.png?cb=849  144_mslp850.png?cb=849 144_mslp850.png?cb=849

 

Well this is of some interest; GFS is the most progressive by some margin for days 5-6. 

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Still room for a very warm day in the SE on Thursday if ECM knows the way. GEM is so slow that the flow hasn't yet brought as much of the very warm uppers north - the rounded shape of the low doesn't help of course.

Any signs of the low becoming a bit more stretched out as per the ECM 12z are worth raising an eyebrow over as that increases the potential to get a wedge of very warm air in across the S and SE. 

Ideally that low needs to become very slow moving while further west than the current consensus but there hasn't been much sign of a trend in that direction.

Edited by Singularity
Found the image from URL option!
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The highlight of the Ecm 12z is day 10 which ends on an upbeat note with high pressure ridging up from the southwest.

240_mslp500.png

Edited by Frosty.
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3 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

The highlight of the Ecm 12z is day 10 which ends on an upbeat note with high pressure ridging up from the southwest.

240_mslp500.png

I would think the days would be fairly pleasant cloud permitting but nights would be on the fresh side given the wind direction

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11 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

I would think the days would be fairly pleasant cloud permitting but nights would be on the fresh side given the wind direction

It ties in with what Exeter are currently saying. I'm optimistic that august will improve following a generally unsettled first week or so. Looking at the Ecm day 10 chart, it would potentially get better beyond that. It's the general mid / longer term trend that matters most at this stage..that we hopefully have something more anticyclonic to look forward to during the last month of the meteorological summer.

ECMOPEU12_240_1.png

Edited by Frosty.
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1 hour ago, Frosty. said:

The highlight of the Ecm 12z is day 10 which ends on an upbeat note with high pressure ridging up from the southwest.

240_mslp500.png

Think this is the time when these more settled charts need to move out of distant FI and into the earlier stages op runs - now or never.

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2 hours ago, Man With Beard said:

Think this is the time when these more settled charts need to move out of distant FI and into the earlier stages op runs - now or never.

Never 

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Despite quite a bit of fluidity on the cards with quite a deep Atlantic low next week the overall pattern in the 6-10 range is remarkably familiar as indicate by last night's anomalies.so I will skip the repetitive narrative and look further ahead to see if there are any glimpses of light at the end of the tunnel. Without going overboard there have been one or two recently and this still remains the case. There is by no means full agreement between them but the trend is positive. The Atlantic trough influence is much weaker with the UK trough slipping east and the upper flow becoming slacker and veering a tad north of west as the Azores, and positive anomalies, become much more influential This should, hopefully initiate quieter and drier weather over the UK. albeit probably emphasizing once again the N/S split, and temps no great shakes with the EPS keeping them below average. Cannot post the EPS chart but it is slightly flatter than the GEFS.

gefs_z500a_5d_nh_61.thumb.png.81186662dc1d9be0eaf2610852853369.png814day_03.thumb.gif.c680d3f1a66d4453b9c89991f37d2e3b.gif

Back to the here and now. Low pressure will continue to dominate over the weekend bringing heavy showers to most areas interspersed with longer periods of rain as a shortwave tracks across southern England overnight Saturday in the circulation of the main low to the north west.

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The low pressure finally clears by Tuesday with HP attempting to ridge in  But a deep low has quickly formed in the western Atlantic and by 00 Wednesday is in mid Atlantic 975mb with the associated fronts just west of Ireland. From here the low slowly drifts north east and fills and the aforementioned fronts also track north east and fragment. All of this indicates very much a NW/SE split with the latter remaining quite dry.

gfs_ptype_slp_eur3_21.thumb.png.e1bc6cd9495d4def93e743baf6b4384d.pnggfs_ptype_slp_eur3_26.thumb.png.b77406916f4db33306bea6a41a50ae00.pnggfs_ptype_slp_eur3_34.thumb.png.82ee650947f98521c6b7fcc6221da08b.png

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Not a great deal to add this morning, just a continuation of the unsettled theme we have all sadly become accustomed to over the last couple of weeks.

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The next 7 days looking pretty wet, especially so in the NW. Drier towards the SE. Weak signals for things to turn less unsettled after the first week of August, though by no means hot. The MetO appear to favour high pressure anchored out west somewhere, with a W/NW flow. Time will tell, but for now we've got another 7-10 days at least of disappointing summer weather to endure.

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The ecm does treat next weeks low a tad differently to the gfs so this still has to be nailed down.

It deepens a system that runs up the  eastern seaboard of N. America to form quite an intense low between Canada and Greenland on Monday. Over the next four days it tracks it east whilst slowly filling to west of the Hebrides by 12z Thursday with the UK in a showery westerly as fronts traverse the country. The UK remains within the circulation of the low as continues on it's travels to the east for the next couple of days and thus a continuation of the cool showery regime but all the while the Azores high pressure is building in the Atlantic and by the end of the run has become the dominating influence.

ecm_mslp_uv850_natl_7.thumb.png.5c11534ac97a23271214fd73d9dab521.pngecm_mslp_uv850_natl_9.thumb.png.91c1b6d29c049a9ab39d78d3a728d97d.pngecm_mslp_uv850_natl_11.thumb.png.6283b471e51f05d99b6d5f043e22f284.png

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Here are the first signs of the possible change from this rampaging southerly jet and Atlantic driven weather we are hoping for:

gfs-5-180.png?6

The jet is starting to pull northeast from the USA by next Friday. If we run this on a few days...

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The Azores high can finally start to build in without a roaring jet eating it away....

gfs-0-234.png?6

While it's not a heatwave by any stretch, it will at least be drier and a bit warmer. Still quite a long way out at present and very likely to change, but I feel this is where we need to focus for our next window of opportunity.

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ECM 00Z clusters: The split at T120 between a deeper low (21 out of 51 members) and a shallower low (16 members including the op run) is maintained from last night, but a new cluster (9) sees the incoming low as being much slower. This new cluster is very interesting because the ridge from the south is far more effective, delaying the Atlantic low even longer and would probably result in some very high temperatures by the end of next week. Long shot though.

Further out, all clusters see a lessening of the control of the Atlantic low between T192 and T240; 24 members follow the op, but the other 27 see ridging already across the UK by T240.

Between T264 and T360, there are three clusters equally split in membership (18, 18 and 15) – two look fairly settled throughout. One is changeable before bringing a new mother trough close to the UK by the end of the run.

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It looks like there will be some rather heavy rain tomorrow night in many parts of England, perhaps thundery the further east you are. Then Sunday and Monday look interesting with sunshine and showers which (like yesterday) are likely to turn thundery in places. 

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We are on track for a spell of pleasantly warm anticyclonic weather after week one of August according to the GEFS 6z mean as the Azores high ridges in with most of the UK enjoying a welcome respite from the unsettled atlantic conditions..especially across southern UK.:)

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14 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

We might see a short lived spell of warmer air drifting up from the south it won't last tho

UKMOPEU12_120_1.thumb.png.1cd78c94bd5c9faf88229ae02598cb1d.pngUKMOPEU12_144_1.thumb.png.615301425974b681931eec2caaa3b1f7.png

Yes, that deep low looks like the dominant player for next week. 

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33 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

We might see a short lived spell of warmer air drifting up from the south it won't last tho

UKMOPEU12_120_1.thumb.png.1cd78c94bd5c9faf88229ae02598cb1d.pngUKMOPEU12_144_1.thumb.png.615301425974b681931eec2caaa3b1f7.png

The UKMO at T144 is quite similar to the ECM control run from this morning (which was in the largest cluster in the ECM ensemble set). It got rid of the low pretty quickly and ended with high pressure bang over us for the start of the following week! So it's not as hopeless as it might look :)

Edited by Man With Beard
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