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Model Output Discussions 12z 01/06/2017


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No comments at all on the 12Zs, which says it all.

Unfortunately the GEFS has now lost any signal it did have for something more settled in FI. So there really is nothing to hold out for.

If we're thinking "damage limitation", perhaps we could hope that the primary low will fill and actually drift south slightly, like the GFS 06Z did. That way, at least the secondary lows (the real stormy threat) may miss us south meaning it won't be too windy and so the sun might feel that bit warmer when it is out. Sunshine and showers might be preferable to fronts on steroids. Trouble is, it is very unusual to get the jet as far south as the 06Z managed in order for that to happen.

Edited by Man With Beard
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An unseasonally wet, cool and windy day amidst an underwhelming week of weather does not a summer make. Much as anticipated through the second half of Spring, the hand-over to Summer sees the atm

There have been some strange observations made today, as too often occurs in this thread whatever the time of year, and largely based on the usual knee-jerk response to longer term suggested NWP.

You always seem to jump in on my posts, along with a few others. Why don't you try giving your assessment of the models instead of picking holes in others efforts!

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2 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

No comments at all on the 12Zs, which says it all.

I haven't had any time to comment today but the Gfs 12z has a better low res, at least for southern UK due to some ridges of high pressure bringing at least some fine and warmer spells.:)

Fingers crossed that  August will produce at least some warm anticyclonic weather to look forward to at some point!

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1 hour ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

At least it will be mild! seem to be tracking SW/NE, rather than dreaded NW/SE, summer seems over, but sunny days likely 23° days inbetween systems, as long as rainbands timed for the night

Blame my birthday it rained for only the second time in my 31 years on earth that i can remember on 15/07 thanks to St Swithun to our deteriorating summer! Had such a good first half to it down here in SE my tans fading fast now...

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9 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

I haven't had any time to comment today but the Gfs 12z has a better low res, at least for southern UK due to some ridges of high pressure bringing at least some fine and warmer spells.:)

Fingers crossed that  August will produce at least some warm anticyclonic weather to look forward to at some point!

It's a tough job being optimistic Frosty, we've both had our wobbles in recent days but sometimes got to do it :)

Looking at D7 on the ECM, I'm wondering if we might get really lucky. The jet has dived south, leaving the low near us to fill. The cold air spilling into the Atlantic is cut off by the low in the Western Atlantic, which perhaps could take some fuel out of the jet?? Which could mean (I'm hypothesising here), the next low on the train will slow, hit the low near us head on, amalgamate with it whilst pulling it back, allowing heights to build in our direction?

 

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Yes man with beard its tough at the moment but if we can hang in there, I'm still seeing tentative signs from the GEFS 12z mean of the Azores high / ridge building NE towards southern UK during the first half of august so there is hope we could see summery weather return after the current changeable / unsettled phase..at least for the south..also Exeter still hinting at some signs of high pressure and rising temps too in their extended outlook..now I've used up all my positive energy for the day..think I need a lie down now:D

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18 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

It's a tough job being optimistic Frosty, we've both had our wobbles in recent days but sometimes got to do it :)

Looking at D7 on the ECM, I'm wondering if we might get really lucky. The jet has dived south, leaving the low near us to fill. The cold air spilling into the Atlantic is cut off by the low in the Western Atlantic, which perhaps could take some fuel out of the jet?? Which could mean (I'm hypothesising here), the next low on the train will slow, hit the low near us head on, amalgamate with it whilst pulling it back, allowing heights to build in our direction?

 

no, got that all wrong!!! but I can't help thinking if the jet dives far enough south, could it force a split??

 

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Well, I am encouraged by the GEFS 12z mean 're early / mid august which shows signs of the Azores high becoming more influential again so I thought I would post these 12z perturbations which show all is not lost for some anticyclonic and warm or very warm august weather..we just need to hope the current generally cooler and unsettled spell won't last too long..I know some will be happy for it to continue for the rest of this summer but most of us are hoping charts like these, admittedly deep FI charts at this stage, could be giving us a glimpse of summery times still to come!:)

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Evening All , despite Atlantic dominance in the days ahead there is little sign of washout conditions ,indeed away from the north of Britain some lengthy spells of dry sunny weather with some rain in between , great for holiday makers and farmers and growers alike , probably why the Uk does well on the worlds economy!!!:yahoo:

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15 minutes ago, knocker said:

Last night's anomalies indicate no discernible pattern change in the near future and maintain the now familiar pattern so no point in running through it once again. Suffice it to repeat this does not necessarily mean a complete sackcloth and ashes scenario and perhaps a fair bit can be salvaged from a filling trough/Azores possibilties regime although there is probably no point in denying the prognosis is unsettled.

ecm_eps_z500a_5d_nh_11.thumb.png.f9e6ab5b7f963361456bdc9075629b4e.pnggefs_z500a_5d_nh_41.thumb.png.adb234213fb21628c329aa7140fc389f.png610day_03.thumb.gif.ec0cc067fbe2053301b495fc01a95a7e.gif

So what does the gfs hold this morning. We are just entering the period when the low pressure takes centre stage. Today's fronts pass through quite quickly and as the trough get more organised to the WNW of Scotland the UK becomes under a westerly showery regime. with minor perturbations running around the circulation perhaps bringing periods of longer spell of rain

gfs_ptype_slp_eur3_11.thumb.png.fa987934f42a5916e9cc691dd76b1b1e.pnggfs_ptype_slp_eur3_19.thumb.png.08b57fc29e8d76d3156da60b7f36c846.png

From here it gets slightly more complicated, and interesting,and I suspect it may differ from the ecm. The trough fills and moves east virtually becoming a non feature until it is reenergised over the Baltic by upstream energy being diverted around Scotland by the Azores ridging over the UK. Thus as it stands next week could a lot worse with little wind, showers becoming less frequent, albeit the temps no great shakes and varying around the average, until the next Atlantic fronts arrive impacting the north on Friday. In the current situation I would takes this but rather depends on whether the ecm will as well

gfs_ptype_slp_eur3_27.thumb.png.7e5fe1a42684b60892657dcb7d8277e8.pnggfs_ptype_slp_eur3_35.thumb.png.15c2015e012200d86b544994b16b2454.pnggfs_ptype_slp_eur3_39.thumb.png.a01acda289e162c5e95610dbbd62acf6.png

 

i dont like what youre forecasting, but i do like your forecast :)

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In the main Ecm looks unsettled bar perhaps a couple of days next week as a flimsy ridge temporarily provides some respite before another low hurtles across the Atlantic bound for the uk, no doubt assisted by the Greenland block.

Meanwhile for southern , central and east Europe the heat goes on and on...

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Not unexpectedly the ecm does vary in detail next week. It still fills the low but drifts it north before it becomes a non feature on Wednesday but this ensures a fairly inclement day for N/I/ northern England and Scotland on Tuesday and Wednesday before the next Atlantic depression arrives WNW of Ireland on Thursday with the fronts impacting the west and north of the UK. So again it really is a north south split. But in any case this is next week so no point in fretting about the detail at this stage.

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44 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

In the main Ecm looks unsettled bar perhaps a couple of days next week as a flimsy ridge temporarily provides some respite before another low hurtles across the Atlantic bound for the uk, no doubt assisted by the Greenland block.

Meanwhile for southern , central and east Europe the heat goes on and on...

5

And if ECM is right it going to get even hotter in these areas next week no real respite in sight for the wildfires in south-eastern France

ECMOPEU00_0_2.thumb.png.6a95cd3d247fbfbb301e3818c44e4ee2.pngECMOPEU00_96_2.thumb.png.8234049e8e7e021f4cb950cca9ea6a24.pngECMOPEU00_168_2.thumb.png.36e3aeca452db90ca4fb9bb9b007217f.pngECMOPEU00_240_2.thumb.png.9c791443ddab680784644b5aae35c1d8.png

 

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13 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

And if ECM is right it going to get even hotter in these areas next week no real respite in sight for the wildfires in south-eastern France

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Yup, can clearly see all the Iberian heat heading NE bypassing the UK on those 850 slides..central Europe in particular having another scorching summer.

Hopefully at some point that horrid blocking to the north west will relent and allow us to tap into the heat, prior to that one does wonder if flooding will become an issue over the next 10 days..:(

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Very interesting developments at T144 this morning:

UW144-21.GIF?26-07  ECM1-144.GIF?26-12  gfs-0-144.png

Still low pressure in charge, but the jet is diving way south and the low near us is filling much faster.

Not far from a split in the jet actually

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The temporary result for the UK is a much slacker flow and possibly improving weather around the middle of next week for two or three days, with fewer showers (though not dry in most places) and more sun. I'd have taken that scenario this time yesterday.

But something else to watch:

UW144-7.GIF?26-07  

As that jet becomes more north/south aligned for next Tuesday, so does the plume. On the UKMO, this means the plume gets really close to the SE. I'd love to see the T168 chart!

Is that as good as it is going to get, or can the jet pull back even a little bit more? GEFS ensemble support is low (only 1 out of 22). But if it does pull back, a shock 30C could be in store for the SE and a temporary warm up through central/eastern England. After all, it is a Tuesday ;) 

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I admire the optimism, but I feel that the trough over the UK is just supporting the heat pump into central and eastern Europe....can't see it backing west enough to give us any heat. You'd have to say we're now probably looking at well past the first week of August for a chance of something settled. Such a shame this mess has occurred right around the hottest part of the year.

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Looking at the EPS means the higher temps are confined to southern and south east Europe as the upper trough loses any enclosed circulation and becomes positively tilted across the UK and down adjacent to Iberia.

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9 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

I admire the optimism, but I feel that the trough over the UK is just supporting the heat pump into central and eastern Europe....can't see it backing west enough to give us any heat. You'd have to say we're now probably looking at well past the first week of August for a chance of something settled. Such a shame this mess has occurred right around the hottest part of the year.

Yes im struggling to see much in the way of positives today ...while that block stays to the north west we are in a hole, or a trough...

 

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6 minutes ago, knocker said:

Looking at the EPS means the higher temps are confined to southern and south east Europe as the upper trough loses any enclosed circulation and becomes positively tilted across the UK and down adjacent to Iberia.

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Looks toasty into much of mainland Europe knocker?

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16 minutes ago, knocker said:

Looking at the EPS means the higher temps are confined to southern and south east Europe as the upper trough loses any enclosed circulation and becomes positively tilted across the UK and down adjacent to Iberia.

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Do you have a similar one for precipitation? Also, can you post the last month anomaly for Europe? (temp and rainfall)

Thanks.

 

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Morning all :)

Very much a case of trying to make something of the scraps this morning.

These re hardly unprecedented or unusual charts though - August can be a very wet month if the pattern gets stuck over us and while I'm in no way writing off the month as a whole, the first week or so doesn't look that promising.

I do think points south may scrape a couple of decent days next week:

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A half decent day for Goodwood.

GFS 00Z OP at the same time:

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One or two of the GEFS members bring the pulse of Iberian heat tantalisingly close to the SE but it's transitory at best (P11 at T+240 a good example) but there must always be a chance under the right circumstances (slowing Atlantic trough and a build of HP to the east) we could get a brief warmer incursion but for now it's what we have.

Some will welcome the rainfall and cooler conditions - most won't but it's the same for us all.

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11 minutes ago, jvenge said:

Do you have a similar one for precipitation? Also, can you post the last month anomaly for Europe? (temp and rainfall)

Thanks.

 

Afraid not from the EPS. Total rainfall from the GEFS. I also don't have the last two to hand. :)

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Must admit I was sceptical when the ECM started putting a Greenland block in place, but it called it right:

gensnh-21-1-144.png  EDH1-144.GIF?26-12

In the past ten years, what I've seen is that Greenland blocks are often forecast but rarely verify ... but when they do finally verify, they can last months...

So now I'm on the opposite side of the fence where I am sceptical of attempts to remove it. At D10, the GEFS mean seems to have blasted it but the ECM mean is still holding on.

gensnh-21-1-240.png   EDH1-240.GIF?26-12

Hard to get a long settled period from the ECM version. Could do with the blue blob moving south at this time of year, really.

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1 minute ago, knocker said:

Afraid not from the EPS. Total rainfall from the GEFS. I also don't have the last two to hand. :)

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Hmph, dry summer here to continue. 

There is a perception that the day time highs haven't been so high this summer so far, but wanted to see if the perception meets reality. Can impact the wine of 2017, so its a very important issue :-D

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What are the chances - eight days of unrelenting low pressure right over the UK at the height of summer....

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Just when you think it might move away to the east, another one comes rolling in to keep it going.   This continues even into far FI so unless something changes dramatically the first part of the summer holidays will see frequent showers and annoyingly strong westerlies nearly everywhere.  Could be worse though - at least it won't be overly cold.  I am looking out for signs of this pattern changing though - the last two warm and sunny spells were not properly foreseen by the models until five days out so they can't be relied on to have the next ten days nailed on......

 

 

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