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Model Output Discussions 12z 01/06/2017


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8 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

And if its settled warm weather you want look away now, ties in with Tomasz on the Beeb last night, pretty much no end in sight to Atlantic driven weather,meanwhile much of Europe is baking...the mainlanders must love the uk trough as all the heat sweeps NE from spain bypassing the UK.

Tbf he did mention the SE may well escape much the Atlantic gunk being on the very periphery of the plumes heading into France Germany Poland etc..

From those charts, it looks like C and E Europe will often be very warm, Germany eastwards, with NW Europe pretty dire. Think even the SE of the UK will be lucky to see any heat if these charts verify. Depressing stuff. 

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An unseasonally wet, cool and windy day amidst an underwhelming week of weather does not a summer make. Much as anticipated through the second half of Spring, the hand-over to Summer sees the atm

There have been some strange observations made today, as too often occurs in this thread whatever the time of year, and largely based on the usual knee-jerk response to longer term suggested NWP.

You always seem to jump in on my posts, along with a few others. Why don't you try giving your assessment of the models instead of picking holes in others efforts!

Posted Images

The usual heads we win tails you lose UK weather chart then....look how much of a negative height anomaly there is in our vicinity. Disgusting charts and stupidly deep low pressure systems for late July/August.

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15 minutes ago, stainesbloke said:

From those charts, it looks like C and E Europe will often be very warm, Germany eastwards, with NW Europe pretty dire. Think even the SE of the UK will be lucky to see any heat if these charts verify. Depressing stuff. 

Aye, i was just quoting Tomasz who said the SE may escape the worst of it i think he actually mentioned essex kent.

:)

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1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:

And if its settled warm weather you want look away now, ties in with Tomasz on the Beeb last night, pretty much no end in sight to Atlantic driven weather,meanwhile much of Europe is baking...the mainlanders must love the uk trough as all the heat sweeps NE from spain bypassing the UK.

Tbf he did mention the SE may well escape much the Atlantic gunk being on the very periphery of the plumes heading into France Germany Poland etc..

You really can't argue with that. The GFS precipitation chart tells the story quite well:

240-777UK.GIF?24-0

All areas except for the south east unlikely to dry out at all in the next 10 days (and I think there is fair consensus in the models) - if you go through the charts individually up to T240, it is clear that these totals arise from daily top-ups of rain rather than one day wash-outs. South eastern areas - their fate hangs in the balance, could go either way, the GFS as it would suggests quite dry but "pinch of salt" comes to mind.

But hot weather is so tantalisingly close to coming off!! Indeed, on the GEFS ensembles at T240, 10 out of 22 members have a heatwave in the SE, and 3 out of 22 members have a UK wide heatwave. How much would have to change on the models for this to verify? A small weakening of the Atlantic, a small strengthening of a plume... Of course, the ECM ensemble mean is that little more pessimistic than the GEFS mean to start with, so we're probably even further away in reality than this GEFS member would make out:

gens-2-1-228.png  gens-2-0-252.png

So it's not all over on the models. Think Antony Joshua just knocked to the floor by Klitschko - looked like the fight was over, but there was still a chance that he would come fighting back, as he did.

In other words, don't expect decent weather next week, but the final nail isn't in the coffin just yet.

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Morning all :)

Mr Beard has a point inasmuch as the GFS is the most "hopeful" of the main models if you want fine and warm/hot conditions but that relies on the LP first stalling and then drifting away NW allowing a general pressure rise and a draw of very warm/hot air from Iberia. Some of the Members suggest this, in fairness some don't.

Neither ECM nor GEM are that inspiring if heat is what you're after. Yes, in the SE there will be drier and warmer spells but fairly transient in all honesty and for all the amounts of rain may not be large that certainly doesn't mean cloudless skies and heat from dawn till dusk.

The 06Z seems a step back in the short term with the LP too close to the British Isles to allow a flow from Iberia to reach even the SE and a developing secondary feature looking likely to track across the south early next week:

gfs-0-150.png?6

Some optimistic hints in low-res but more around settled than hot.

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A couple of posts have been removed for being off topic.

Please use the other threads for general chat. 

Model output discussion only in here please,  ta.:-) 

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No real change to the overall set-up..i.e staying changeable with some potent atlantic unsettled spells bringing strong winds and bands of moderate / heavy rain across the uk interspersed with clearer / brighter showery conditions with hail and thunder. The south / south-east are likely to have the best of any short-lived warmer drier intervals and the north-west the most unsettled conditions. Temperatures generally ranging from cool to average across most of the uk..still hints that high pressure could build in at some point during the first half of August.

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I mentioned hints of high pressure next month and the GEFS 6z mean shows that with some support for anticyclonic / ridging close to or over the south of the uk towards week 2 of august..I'm looking for crumbs of hope / comfort.:D

21_336_500mb.png

21_366_500mb.png

Edited by Frosty.
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Oh heck. Tonight's GFS is a terror threat to our summer. It would be considered unsettled in December, let alone July. It's the perfect whammy of a static mother low sitting to our North West which slings low after low towards the UK, starting Wednesday, then going on for days and days. I wonder if flooding might be the weather story by the middle of next week.

Oh and South-easterly - no, you don't escape on this run either.

The very worst runs I've seen for late July in many a year.

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32 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Oh heck. Tonight's GFS is a terror threat to our summer. It would be considered unsettled in December, let alone July. It's the perfect whammy of a static mother low sitting to our North West which slings low after low towards the UK, starting Wednesday, then going on for days and days. I wonder if flooding might be the weather story by the middle of next week.

Oh and South-easterly - no, you don't escape on this run either.

The very worst runs I've seen for late July in many a year.

It's almost 2007-esque. Although we have had some poor spells this summer, we haven't seen anything quite this bad, with low after low ploughing through the UK. I hope Mushy is right and that we end up with something less extreme.

GFSOPEU12_192_1.png

This is as bad as it gets for the start of August. It's still in FI so hopefully it won't happen, but the trend is not what we want to see.

Edited by Scorcher
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When we all pondered in June after all those days of 30c+ if you could get a really bad second half of summer after a warm start....we could be finding out the hard way!!

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The bad thing would be if the trough sat over us just can't clear out, and lows just spin in and rotate around it for weeks on end. Hopefully into the first week of August things can get a shift on.

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I must admit I'm struggling to remain calm in the face of these GFS runs that just won't turn the westerly momentum down in the Atlantic-Europe sector. Well not far enough west for us to escape, anyway.

Rtavn1441.gif Rukm1441.gif Rgem1441.gif
Thankfully when we compare the bile-inducing GFS run (left) at day 6 and compare it to UKMO (middle), we find that the latter has the low S of Greenland weaker, further north and with more of a ridge in between it and the trough by the UK, which itself lacks the shallow disturbance on S side that GFS has decided to introduce. All four of those things indicate a setup less conducive to the low S of Greenland storming east and hammering us with considerable force.

Of some interest is that GEM has managed to slow the low down a good deal further, but this does seem a bit out-there at this stage. A shame because that run is the first in a while to turn out pretty good next week;

Rgem1921.gif Rgem2161.gif Rgem2401.gif

If ever we have needed GEM to be leading the way in spotting some very warm/hot weather potential, it's now! Everybody prepare to clutch those straws :rolleyes::laugh:

 

I do wonder, though, if the model output can be trusted much at all beyond even 4 day's range at the mo, given some pretty odd looking MJO projections and the fact that the observed MJO took a marked step into phase 5 on the H-W diagram yesterday when most models had a move into the COD (central circle that represents weak or indistinct MJO activity):

ALL_emean_phase_full.gif

I can't remember seeing all the models depict such a there-and-back evolution of the MJO before. I've seen GEFS do something similar in phases 8-1-2 before but that's as close as I can recall.

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17 minutes ago, Singularity said:

I must admit I'm struggling to remain calm in the face of these GFS runs that just won't turn the westerly momentum down in the Atlantic-Europe sector. Well not far enough west for us to escape, anyway.

Rtavn1441.gif Rukm1441.gif Rgem1441.gif
Thankfully when we compare the bile-inducing GFS run (left) at day 6 and compare it to UKMO (middle), we find that the latter has the low S of Greenland weaker, further north and with more of a ridge in between it and the trough by the UK, which itself lacks the shallow disturbance on S side that GFS has decided to introduce. All four of those things indicate a setup less conducive to the low S of Greenland storming east and hammering us with considerable force.

Of some interest is that GEM has managed to slow the low down a good deal further, but this does seem a bit out-there at this stage. A shame because that run is the first in a while to turn out pretty good next week;

Rgem1921.gif Rgem2161.gif Rgem2401.gif

If ever we have needed GEM to be leading the way in spotting some very warm/hot weather potential, it's now! Everybody prepare to clutch those straws :rolleyes::laugh:

 

I do wonder, though, if the model output can be trusted much at all beyond even 4 day's range at the mo, given some pretty odd looking MJO projections and the fact that the observed MJO took a marked step into phase 5 on the H-W diagram yesterday when most models had a move into the COD (central circle that represents weak or indistinct MJO activity):

ALL_emean_phase_full.gif

I can't remember seeing all the models depict such a there-and-back evolution of the MJO before. I've seen GEFS do something similar in phases 8-1-2 before but that's as close as I can recall.

Terrible weather on the way over the next two to three weeks with very cold stormy autumnal weather. I agree that there is likely to be flooding across England. No sign of jet stream moving north. This is going to end up like 2007 wish a washout end of July and rain for the whole of august. Nightmare models for heat lovers like me.

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1 hour ago, Man With Beard said:

Oh heck. Tonight's GFS is a terror threat to our summer. It would be considered unsettled in December, let alone July. It's the perfect whammy of a static mother low sitting to our North West which slings low after low towards the UK, starting Wednesday, then going on for days and days. I wonder if flooding might be the weather story by the middle of next week.

Oh and South-easterly - no, you don't escape on this run either.

The very worst runs I've seen for late July in many a year.

Let's hope the GFS 12z is as way off the mark as last Monday's.

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35 minutes ago, Weatherlad50 said:

Terrible weather on the way over the next two to three weeks with very cold stormy autumnal weather. I agree that there is likely to be flooding across England. No sign of jet stream moving north. This is going to end up like 2007 wish a washout end of July and rain for the whole of august. Nightmare models for heat lovers like me.

You may wish to consider putting GFS aside for a while as that might improve moods.

Or maybe not - let's see what ECM does this evening.

As of +120 it's much more similar to the GEM 12z than GFS 12z with the low over by Newfoundland (much deeper with more amplification of jet ahead of it as a result), which suggests a slower progression of the Atlantic troughs may be seen from this new ECM run. This doesn't equate to a finer outcome next week for sure, but it makes it seem more plausible which is a start.

120_mslp500_arc.png?cb=399 120_mslp500_arc.png?cb=399  12_120_mslp500arc.png?cb=399

Ah here's the +144 now so;
144_mslp500_arc.png?cb=399 144_mslp500_arc.png?cb=399 12_144_mslp500arc.png?cb=399

A good deal closer to GEM than GFS here. Closer to it than UKMO too, for that matter. Go on ECM - give us a change of heart*.

* by which I mean please do so for the love of all things great and good :rolleyes::laugh:

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9 hours ago, Man With Beard said:

But hot weather is so tantalisingly close to coming off!! Indeed, on the GEFS ensembles at T240, 10 out of 22 members have a heatwave in the SE, and 3 out of 22 members have a UK wide heatwave. How much would have to change on the models for this to verify? A small weakening of the Atlantic, a small strengthening of a plume... Of course, the ECM ensemble mean is that little more pessimistic than the GEFS mean to start with, so we're probably even further away in reality than this GEFS member would make out:

gens-2-1-228.png  gens-2-0-252.png

So it's not all over on the models. Think Antony Joshua just knocked to the floor by Klitschko - looked like the fight was over, but there was still a chance that he would come fighting back, as he did.

In other words, don't expect decent weather next week, but the final nail isn't in the coffin just yet.

144_mslp500.png?cb=399

Okay so I know I'm threatening to send some people tumbling into madness but this day 6 chart from ECM bares more than a slight resemblance to that ensemble member. Just needs that ridge to trend stronger still. Hmm!

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168_mslp850.png?cb=399 192_mslp850.png?cb=399

That disturbance makes a mess of things on this run. It does feel like every little thing that can make it harder to us is very much determined to do so. For whatever reason GEM decided to drop it this evening and that seems to be all we need to get more of a ridge in place next week, but it sadly remains the lesser probability as of this evening.

ECM could still get that ridge in on day 9 but it looks tight unless that low out west really slams on the brakes, which it very much hasn't done in the preceding two ECM runs.

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The ecm is handling the main depression at the end of the week differently to the previous run.

At 12z Friday it is WNW of the Hebrides at around 15w 984mb with the subsidiary low swinging around it very close to south west Ireland. The latter then tracks rapidly NE to be over southern Scotland by 00 bringing some wet and windy weather particularly to the north.

This is very short lived as the system is rapidly into southern Norway and at the same time the upper trough has become virtually stationary and complex adjacent to the UK and has spawned an associated complex surface feature with various little lows, including the original which is slowly filling just north of Scotland.

The upshot of all this is low pressure over the UK until Wednesday of next week and thus a cool, showery regime with the odd spell of more concentrated rain. Obviously interspersed with sunny intervals. Difficult at this stage to pin down any regional bias.

The low pressure area eventually moves away east but the very brief ridging is quickly brushed aside as the next Atlantic system arrives on Wednesday thanks once again to the upper trough being "topped" up from upstream.

ecm_mslp_uv850_natl_5.thumb.png.b5370d9f52251e02b4984fb9b571c805.pngecm_mslp_uv850_natl_7.thumb.png.690eedbb8875ed66e04bdb32a088444c.pngecm_mslp_uv850_natl_9.thumb.png.4b1130dac7da2cc586349267a5844395.png

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The current model output is making me feel like we have skipped the last days of July and the whole of august and just fast forwarded into September / October. I feel so sorry for UK holiday makers in the height of summer facing a powering up jetstream.

Edited by Frosty.
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Looking further ahead, there are hints from the GEFS 12z mean of the Azores high ridge building NE towards southern UK during the early august period with a chance of a warmer more settled period for the south at least.

21_288_500mb.png

21_336_500mb.png

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Thumbs up for the one gfs ensemble member that goes crazy and well over 20c on the 850s! :D

As disappointing as the 12z OP run is, it's a bit of a cool outlier. The general prognosis is still bad though, the next window of opportunity appears to be in around 10 days time....if the door slams shut again there, then it could be another 7-10 day lockout before any sort of improvement.

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