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Model Output Discussions 12z 01/06/2017


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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    Favoured parts of eastern england could reach 32c tomorrow which would be the ninth time so far this summer that 30c+ has been recorded which has mainly been across the south-east..thunderstorms drifting north tonight with more breaking out and spreading north tomorrow..very humid too.

    Edited by Frosty.
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    An unseasonally wet, cool and windy day amidst an underwhelming week of weather does not a summer make. Much as anticipated through the second half of Spring, the hand-over to Summer sees the atm

    There have been some strange observations made today, as too often occurs in this thread whatever the time of year, and largely based on the usual knee-jerk response to longer term suggested NWP.

    You always seem to jump in on my posts, along with a few others. Why don't you try giving your assessment of the models instead of picking holes in others efforts!

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester
    35 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

    The Gfs 12z shows some usable weather next week with plenty of fine and pleasantly warm conditions with temperatures into the low 20's celsius.

    Yes Frosty and average at this time of year is often very nice, we don't need outstanding synoptics to deliver very reasonable weather. The GFS charts aren't going to excite anyone but it should be more than reasonable if this run is correct.

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    The GEFS 12z mean indicates plenty of usable weather next week, especially further south with pleasantly warm temperatures into the low 20's celsius across the southern half of the uk which is similar to what the earlier operational run showed..and more of the same further ahead too with a generally n/s split with the most changeable weather further north where it would also be cooler..not bad at all further south, this doesn't preclude some rain at times for the south but it's an improvement on recent output and there is potential to improve further on subsequent runs.

    Edited by Frosty.
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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Anything out of the ordinary!
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    ECM tonight is awful....worst case scenario for sure. Kick that one into touch and try again tomorrow!

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    Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
    5 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

    ECM tonight is awful....worst case scenario for sure. Kick that one into touch and try again tomorrow!

    Yep, ecm is shockingly bad and if it is anywhere near the mark, really screws up my plans for next week. Can't believe how the tables have turned. It is showing the opposite to what most models and forecasts were predicting for late July. If it comes off it will be another bad episode in medium to long range forecasting. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

    This evenings run is summer 2012 all over again with low pressure sent through the south of the UK with every conceivable way of preventing pressure to rise from the south. 

    Luckily for now this isn't supported by the GEFs at least.

    gens-21-1-192.png   gens-21-1-240.png   gens-21-1-300.png

    Back to a more normal pattern with low pressure to the north west and a west/south west flow. Not a lot of positives going forward with slightly drier and warmer than normal being the best on offer.

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    Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
    1 minute ago, Captain Shortwave said:

    This evenings run is summer 2012 all over again with low pressure sent through the south of the UK with every conceivable way of preventing pressure to rise from the south. 

    Luckily for now this isn't supported by the GEFs at least.

    gens-21-1-192.png   gens-21-1-240.png   gens-21-1-300.png

    Back to a more normal pattern with low pressure to the north west and a west/south west flow. Not a lot of positives going forward with slightly drier and warmer than normal being the best on offer.

    Ecm seems hellbent on explosive cyclogenesis somewhere near the UK in the 9 to 10 day range. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

    This evening's ecm is much more mobile than the gfs post the weekend  with the Azores being much less influential with quite a strong (120kt) jet running west to east and dipping south around Cornwall. Thus the low Friday quickly fills and tracks east to be equally quickly replaced by another system that pops in from the west equally quickly to be over the south of England by Monday midnight bringing some quite wet weather to the area,

    This in turn tracks east but by 12z Wednesday fronts are orientated southern Ireland to Cornwall having nipped around attempted ridging by the Azores and from here it gets way interesting. It quickly brings another system in from North America, squashing the ridge, and has it developing explosive cyclogenesis just south west of Ireland by 00z Friday as the jet swings into southern England. Now I don't think for a minute that this will happen but the models are certainly playing around with the idea of a deep low. Certainly of some interest.

    ecm_mslp_uv850_natl_9.thumb.png.1e97e2aff78fb7f7eb7d72ef85557537.pngecm_mslp_uv850_natl_10.thumb.png.c87bd8786a8575732242962ba2c6f44e.pngecm_mslp_uv850_natl_11.thumb.png.a3c2ec634b4da25e7f3c63195e4e04d5.png

    Edited by knocker
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    Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
    2 hours ago, Singularity said:

    Rukm1441.gif  Rtavn1441.gif

    UKMO 12z ends up uncannily similar to some of the charts that were cropping up prior to this week's extended fine spell that never was and GFS is not that far away from that - just a bit flatter with the Atlantic jet which is handy in the mid-range but potentially less so in the longer.

    This output is following an AAM climb that has gained some magnitude in the GEFS projections over the past few days which begs the question - are the models overreacting to such trends for the second time running?

    Rather more positive this evening due to GFS and UKMO - with the UK low dissipating a little quicker and the Azores ridge a little stronger, next week could be that settled week for the north after all.

    That was my thinking until I saw the ECM, anyway, which clearly hates us with a passion - basically finding every possible way to keep the worst possible charts coming our way. Anyway, zero support for it in the ops, it's known for overdoing heights to the north in FI and the best thing of all, when it has been on its own recently it has not been right - unlike the GFS and UKMO which have both led the way from time to time.

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    Posted
  • Location: manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Summer & Winter
  • Location: manchester

    ECM surely not? Has anyone ever seen such a vile set up in the start of Summer holidays? 

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Anything out of the ordinary!
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    BBC extended sounds more like the ECM tonight - saying on balance low pressure more likely to dominate rather than the high moving in. Sounds....er.....delightful.

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    Posted
  • Location: manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Summer & Winter
  • Location: manchester
    10 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

    BBC extended sounds more like the ECM tonight - saying on balance low pressure more likely to dominate rather than the high moving in. Sounds....er.....delightful.

    I think it was recorded at a time before the UKMO 12z came out and Ben Rich was following the 00z

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    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

    Mmm not very good short term developments today, low pressure set to intensify on Friday and become a stronger longer lasting feature than expected just 24-48 hours ago, only slowly filling having deposited quite a bit of rain for some, not great prospects for the weekend. It is a rather ominous signal perhaps, suggesting the atlantic could gain the upper hand next week, with the azores high forced to languish too far to our SW and in the wrong position to ridge this way, with the jetstream aligned NW-SE, allowing further low pressure and cool NW winds to persist. ECM certainly showing such a suggestion, GFS has markedly backed down from its northern tracking jetstream forecast yesterday.. mmm a very mixed July now looks on the cards..

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    Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

    Leaving aside explosive cyclogenesis for the moment although tonight's anomalies are on the same page you can see the differences that probably part way explains the det. variations. All agree on low pressure over the Arctic with a subsidiary lobe southern Greenland with a conduit to the trough just to the east of the UK So quite a strong jet leaving the eastern seaboard but the key remains with how much will the Azores push north. For example with the  EPS very little so systems can easily track into southern Britain on the strong westerly flow. The gfs on the other hand does have the Azores being more influential so the UK not so exposed with NOAA taking the middle road but with weaker upper flow in the eastern Atlantic.Getting this sorted will determine how the detail pans out on the next two or three det runs.

    ecm_eps_z500a_5d_nh_11.thumb.png.2a2c8689e6c2650f98c4e67d074376e5.pnggefs_z500a_5d_nh_41.thumb.png.8d1c860edf252c59e03be211b83abadc.png610day_03.thumb.gif.cc7fc79cedffb9d0ca009f2fac852643.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Bristol
  • Location: Bristol
    5 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

    The south-east has, most of the uk hasn't!:) 

    Temp anomaly for July shows Wales, and places south of Midlands with above average temps... Scotland & NI bucking the trend. June was widely above, bar Scotland. 

     

    5.png

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    Posted
  • Location: leeds
  • Location: leeds
    2 minutes ago, draztik said:

    Temp anomaly for July shows Wales, and places south of Midlands with above average temps... Scotland & NI bucking the trend. June was widely above, bar Scotland. 

     

    5.png

    Looking at that map.. Russia  and  a lot of the eastern block have had a cold July so far that's unusual?? its usually baking in western Russia at this time of year

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    Posted
  • Location: Bristol
  • Location: Bristol
    Just now, knocker said:

    I must admit I haven't been following the temp in Iberia that closely but I'm a little surprised it's not above average.

    Was thinking that myself when I saw the graph :cc_confused: tho, there was a notable cool off for a period in July... can't remember the dates, but did notice Madrid had temps around 26C for a time.

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    Posted
  • Location: Bristol
  • Location: Bristol
    2 minutes ago, weatherguru14 said:

    Looking at that map.. Russia  and  a lot of the eastern block have had a cold July so far that's unusual?? its usually baking in western Russia at this time of year

    It was the same story in June, notably so.

    rus.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
    4 minutes ago, weatherguru14 said:

    Looking at that map.. Russia  and  a lot of the eastern block have had a cold July so far that's unusual?? its usually baking in western Russia at this time of year

    They have had a lot of troughs dropping down into eastern Europe and thus colder (relatively) air. Also north west Europe.

    Edited by knocker
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    Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl

    A number of posts with no model discussion have been hidden.General chat wrt previous Summers or preferences please discuss in the relevant threads.

    Thanks all.:)

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    Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

    Today will be covered in detail elsewhere so suffice it to say that at some point storms could occur just about anywhere with the possibility of localized torrential rain a la Coverack. This morning the main batch moving north London/East Anglia area.

    PPVE89.thumb.gif.5aefdd556c0b544c1e4360710c4e5a06.gifmucape_d02_23.thumb.png.519327769cc26547eadc3a9bc6a67cbd.png

    Best  keep the waffle to a minimum this morning vis the gfs as there is nothing of any note to add to comments from yesterday.

    The depression is centred over Ailsa Craig 998mb Friday midday with associated fronts lying down the western half of Britain. These then track east along with the low which fills and 48 hours later is in the North Sea. Thus Friday and Saturday showery and unsettled with some more prolonged rain before becoming drier on Sunday as the UK is briefly under a very slack pressure regime as the Azores is about to ridge from the south west Feeling a lot fresher than of late.

    gfs_ptype_slp_uk2_11.thumb.png.50dd4cc6eee4f3611e72a2114005edf0.pnggfs_ptype_slp_eur3_19.thumb.png.968d03110cd165cc9dce9214323122c2.png

    So we have a transient ridge at the beginning of the week which is quite quickly suppressed as the next major upper low arrives SW of Iceland by 12z Wednesday with the associated surface fronts over Ireland. From here it does get a little more interesting (albeit it will not verify but it was around this time last night that the ecm dabbled with explosive cyclogenesis and the models have been playing around with the deep low idea) as the next major upper low leaves the eastern seaboard. So the question is will it generate a deep surface low that tracks close to the UK or will the Azores come to the rescue and align the jet north east. Or alternately it doesn't happen at all

    gfs_z500a_natl_34.thumb.png.05c12dc7b4f4daf597a1209b3193b49d.pnggfs_uv250_natl_39.thumb.png.a554f0508858ee0fae907d3dbc5cc1d9.pnggfs_ptype_slp_eur3_41.thumb.png.c29a34f25e4d5f4526d21edd61111da9.png

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

    And the GEFS anomaly this morning, with low pressure over the Arctic and Iceland, would suggest nothing but unsettled weather in the medium term.

    gefs_z500a_5d_nh_49.thumb.png.cc2cb5fd1ba8e1ac2c07494d39e68906.png

    Edited by knocker
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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
    50 minutes ago, knocker said:

    And the GEFS anomaly this morning, with low pressure over the Arctic and Iceland, would suggest nothing but unsettled weather in the medium term.

    gefs_z500a_5d_nh_49.thumb.png.cc2cb5fd1ba8e1ac2c07494d39e68906.png

    Yep, Ecm still promoting extensive blocking at northern latitudes and southerly tracking lows, or at least uk bound troughs.

    Dreadful, just dreadful.

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    Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire

    Ecm really is the summer dream killer at the moment. Second atrocious run on the bounce. Very meridional but I bet this pattern will not be replicated this winter. I am sure the azores high will have no problem ridging in then. Very cruel! 

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