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Model Output Discussions 12z 01/06/2017


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Posted
  • Location: Skelmersdale
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: 6-10 degrees. Spring 12-16 degrees. Summer 17-22 degrees.
  • Location: Skelmersdale
    2 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

    Awesome..what a transformation, much nicer to look at anyway!:D

    12_312_mslp850.png

    12_312_uk2mtmp.png

    12_312_2mtmp.png

    12_336_uk2mtmp.png

    Today was nice, Frosty. That is just hell.

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    An unseasonally wet, cool and windy day amidst an underwhelming week of weather does not a summer make. Much as anticipated through the second half of Spring, the hand-over to Summer sees the atm

    There have been some strange observations made today, as too often occurs in this thread whatever the time of year, and largely based on the usual knee-jerk response to longer term suggested NWP.

    You always seem to jump in on my posts, along with a few others. Why don't you try giving your assessment of the models instead of picking holes in others efforts!

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire

    Oh my, well this looks a little hot doesnt it? ;)

    Temperatures from 36-39 possible perhaps in some  spots?

    SUMMER 2017.png

    Edited by TJS1998Tom
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    Posted
  • Location: manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Summer & Winter
  • Location: manchester

    Don't understand GFS, it should never be trusted. Where has that low gone that was destined to sit over us for the next 10 days and beyond?

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    Posted
  • Location: Chepstow Wales
  • Location: Chepstow Wales
    9 minutes ago, TJS1998Tom said:

    Oh my, well this looks a little hot doesnt it? ;)

    Temperatures from 36-39 possible perhaps in some  spots?

    SUMMER 2017.png

    Yes please ' i would love 2 weeks or more of this .BANK!!

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    Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
    1 minute ago, A Frayed Knot said:

    Yes please ' i would love 2 weeks or more of this .BANK!!

    aha, this would literally happen just a day or so before we head back home from holiday in Silverdale, Cumbria. Fingers crossed it doesnt go bust again in 2 days like last time ;)

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    Posted
  • Location: Bristol
  • Location: Bristol
    9 minutes ago, TJS1998Tom said:

    aha, this would literally happen just a day or so before we head back home from holiday in Silverdale, Cumbria. Fingers crossed it doesnt go bust again in 2 days like last time ;)

    These are day 10 + from the ops. You can be assured a variation or a complete change on next run. 

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    Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

    Uh.. what just happened?

    I mean really GFS, really? A sequence of charts that would rival the most interese heatwave of 2003?

    It must really be making something of eastward tropical convection propagation to counter the C-Pac trades. Either that or killing those off sooner and more definitively - not had a chance to check these things yet as I'm out and about.

    Needless to say, UKMO still has none of these adjustments, and from what I can make out GEM is not better.

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    Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

    The GFS really does show what happens if we can get that low to life out northwards and hence retain the ridge to our east, the trough over Canada moves east and the Azores high is allowed to build across the UK during week two to bring settled and warm conditions.

    What the operational then does is simply outrageous with low pressure becoming cut off west of Iberia and a dome of exceptionally hot air is pushed straight over the UK with the 20C isotherm reaching most of England and Wales and the 18C Isotherm reaching Shetland!!!

    gfs-1-312.png?12

    No point commenting before this but this chart for Sunday comes after temperatures hitting the high twenties or low thirties from Wednesday (day 9) onwards, worth archiving this run because this set up would push 100F both on this day and the following day and I cannot express how exceptional this would be if it came off.

    Anyway back in reality, we need to sort out the movement of that low, the GFS solution offers a swift route back to summer like conditions with temperatures returning to near normal or above by the weekend with this extending northwards with time. The UKMO..... probably below average from Thursday onwards......

    GEFs

    gens-21-1-192.png   gens-21-1-240.png

    The ensembles tend to slowly track the low eastwards north of the UK by the end of week one but not through the UK as per the UKMO and GEM, it then restores us to a warm west/south west flow with a lot of fair weather in the south and the risk of rain at times in the north. There are some good runs in there as well as a few UKMO like solutions, the control however does look similar to the operational up to day 10, in fact that is almost in the same range of heat in the extended range. Small crumbs perhaps.

    gens-0-1-240.png   gens-0-1-300.png

    A tough ask but you bet the GFS won't be on the right track twice in the space of the week, especially as it is showing a much more positive outlook.

     

    Edited by Captain Shortwave
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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    WOW!! What a run from GFS doubt it will come off but potentially record breaking if it did

    596cec5392977_yesplease.png.9198203cbb17e6af538266f67ec671b1.thumb.png.fbd70a3e9b817fc8ea034778771d8229.png

    giphy.gif

     

    Edited by Summer Sun
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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
    10 minutes ago, draztik said:

    These are day 10 + from the ops. You can be assured a variation or a complete change on next run. 

    You're absolutely right, not going to get carried away with 1 operational run but it looks great for a change.

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    Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
    9 minutes ago, Singularity said:

    Uh.. what just happened?

    I mean really GFS, really? A sequence of charts that would rival the most interese heatwave of 2003?

     

    with extremely high temps up the med including iberia, why not?..... ok, i know its unlikely to verify but if such a chart ever becomes reality then its surely only a question of time before the 2003 record is threatened.

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Anything out of the ordinary!
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    Let's just wait and see the 12z ensemble and that big green line miles above anything else!!

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    Posted
  • Location: Bristol
  • Location: Bristol
    4 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

    You're absolutely right, not going to get carried away with 1 operational run but it looks great for a change.

    No doubt about it. A massive change. And while we want things to go different ways, it makes for interesting model watching. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
    4 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

    Let's just wait and see the 12z ensemble and that big green line miles above anything else!!

    Well the medium term anomaly is not exactly enthralling. Westerly upper flow with N/S split temps around average. But all a bit pointless without a couple more runs and cross model support.

    gefs_z500a_5d_nh_53.thumb.png.a3caec8b29c484f3785aac0004f36976.png

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

    For the record, the GFS op by T300 is NOT an outlier. The control run follows it and about 5 other ensemble members!!

    graphe3_1000___-0.12574_51.5085_Londres.

    Edited by Man With Beard
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    Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
    2 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

    For the record, the GFS op by T300 is NOT an outlier. The control run follows it and about 5 other ensemble members!!

    :shok:

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    Posted
  • Location: Bristol
  • Location: Bristol
    3 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

    For the record, the GFS op by T300 is NOT an outlier. The control run follows it and about 5 other ensemble members!!

    This chart is for central England. I'd call this a massive outlier.

    IMG_3900.GIF

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Anything out of the ordinary!
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    It's clearly an outlier. If you've got 20 members, and only 4/5 go for something similar, it means 75-80% are going elsewhere!

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    Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
    8 minutes ago, draztik said:

    This chart is for central England. I'd call this a massive outlier.

    IMG_3900.GIF

    Ok alright, it's an outlier against the mean, but it is within a cluster, and I thought we didn't consider clusters to be outliers?? ;)

    Anyway, don't worry to much about it because after 12.30am tonight when the ensembles update, you'll never see anything like it again!

    Edited by Man With Beard
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    Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire

    If the ecm op follows the GFS tonight, this country won't be the only thing going into meltdown. This forum will go into one instantly. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
    21 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

    For the record, the GFS op by T300 is NOT an outlier. The control run follows it and about 5 other ensemble members!!

    graphe3_1000___-0.12574_51.5085_Londres.

    5 or 6 is 5 or 6 more than yesterday:D..baby steps

    Edited by Frosty.
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    Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

    Another run, another variant on the low at just D2, D3 and D4 ... the ECM returns to a UK low, no link up with a Scandi trough, goodness knows where it will put the low for the weekend.

    In all honesty the GFS is on its own tonight with its better weekend for the south.

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    My advice, don't worry, be happy, the Ecm 12z looks summery tomorrow and wednesday..thunderstorms midweek too!:drinks:..as for the outlook, that is unclear. 

    24_mslp850.png

    24_mslp850uk.png

    48_mslp850uk.png

    48_thickuk.png

    Edited by Frosty.
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