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Model Output Discussions 12z 01/06/2017


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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

    I think it's fair to say that in general the models have not handled the forthcoming amplification resulting in the the formation of a cut off upper low that swings south east to be west of Ireland Weds/Thursday and then east over the UK by the weekend very well. Although to be fair the gfs did indicate this scenario a few days ago. This uncertainly has resulted in the much vaunted settled warm spell being put back a few days, assuming that it is still on the cards which still looks the percentage play.

    gfs_z500a_natl_16.thumb.png.1f32e7122d3ac4f363da1933ac962403.pnggfs_z500a_natl_27.thumb.png.921202e6859cb29c87b8f34ba2cc151d.png

    So on to a bit more detail. Tuesday evening/Wednesday sees the thundery low over France move north and phase with the weakening fronts of the newly formed surface low to the north west before the thundery outbreak moves away north east. There could well be some impressive convective activity as the airmasses combine

    gfs_ptype_slp_eur3_16.thumb.png.fcc3ed2af1b3af84b627b9c8b2ce6909.pngPPVA89.thumb.gif.ce7ddd2ae0c4230a117b28ff72bf21c9.gif

    From this point the surface low to the north west tracks south and then east to be over the south Irish Sea 993mb at 12z on Friday  From here it tracks steadily east into the North Sea and points east and fills whilst at the same time the Azores ridges in from the south west. So quite a wet  and unsettled Friday/Saturday before the quieter drier spell get underway apart maybe Scotland that will still come under the influence of the major trough to the north west.

    gfs_ptype_slp_eur3_23.thumb.png.34e689c93aa6c967b7a85baf8250d1eb.pnggfs_ptype_slp_eur3_31.thumb.png.b75ec88a92374492c276beb9a82d0869.pnggfs_ptype_slp_eur3_40.thumb.png.9c3e379b91e1205bb96d15243387cfe7.png

    And regarding the upcoming warmer and settled spell it has to be said the GEFS anomaly doesn't give this confident support

    gefs_z500a_5d_nh_53.thumb.png.7e5074910aceb51f5bfb410d9e1370af.png

    Edited by knocker
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    An unseasonally wet, cool and windy day amidst an underwhelming week of weather does not a summer make. Much as anticipated through the second half of Spring, the hand-over to Summer sees the atm

    There have been some strange observations made today, as too often occurs in this thread whatever the time of year, and largely based on the usual knee-jerk response to longer term suggested NWP.

    You always seem to jump in on my posts, along with a few others. Why don't you try giving your assessment of the models instead of picking holes in others efforts!

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

    Not much change this morning so far, except the GEM has followed the others.

    The UKMO is actually a little slower than the others and is there just the tiniest hint that a ridge in front of the main low might be a little stronger than forecast?

    The GEFS, on the other hand, has quite a few runs which keep the trough stalled over us until the end of the month!!

    The trouble is, with the Atlantic gone AWOL, there isn't anything to push that low away with ridging on both sides holding it in place.

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    Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

    The ecm , albeit varying in detail, is along the same lines as the gfs. But at the end of the day we are still left with the vexing questions. How influential is the Azores ridge going to be? Will it be withdrawn far enough to allow incursions from the NW and the south? Or a combination of the lot?

    ecm_t850a_5d_natl_11.thumb.png.daf681c3cf0290264a3b69526a36827f.png

    Edited by knocker
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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester

    Not looking good at all this morning, I'm sorry to say.

    All the models now show that cut off low getting stuck over the UK until at least the weekend, and its influence will probably last for longer than that.

    We also have pretty much the only sub 5C airmass in the whole of Europe (including Iceland and Scandinavia) slap  bang over us, as if a child has just drawn a perfect circle over the UK!

    So I imagine it will be wet, windy and cool with maxes in the mid teens at best for many after Wednesday.

    All while the near continent continues to enjoy hot sunshine. If you haven't booked your summer holiday abroad yet, I'd recommend doing it sharpish!

    The Azores high is very reluctant to move over us now- in the position it's in I can see more lows moving down southeast from Iceland over the top of us with NW winds. Really hope I'm wrong about this.

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    There's no sign of the CFS heatwave on the Gfs / Ecm 00z..it looks meh to me at best.:D..indeed the big two are singing from the same hymn sheet along with the fat lady.

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    Edited by Frosty.
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    Posted
  • Location: Hampton, Evesham, Worcestershire. 27m asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme and Exciting weather, hate stratus clouds and drizzile
  • Location: Hampton, Evesham, Worcestershire. 27m asl.

    Morning! Well after some initial heat and humidity along with some thunderstorms the Atlantic will bring much more unsettled and much cooler conditions for the second half of this week So headlines will be Low In Control :hi:

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    Posted
  • Location: Bedworth
  • Weather Preferences: No Extremes Of Any Kind
  • Location: Bedworth
    11 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

    Not looking good at all this morning, I'm sorry to say.

    All the models now show that cut off low getting stuck over the UK until at least the weekend, and its influence will probably last for longer than that.

    We also have pretty much the only sub 5C airmass in the whole of Europe (including Iceland and Scandinavia) slap  bang over us, as if a child has just drawn a perfect circle over the UK!

    So I imagine it will be wet, windy and cool with maxes in the mid teens at best for many after Wednesday.

    All while the near continent continues to enjoy hot sunshine. If you haven't booked your summer holiday abroad yet, I'd recommend doing it sharpish!

    The Azores high is very reluctant to move over us now- in the position it's in I can see more lows moving down southeast from Iceland over the top of us with NW winds. Really hope I'm wrong about this.

    Even Wednesday Temps wise look uninspired away from Eastern side of the Country

     

    ukmaxtemp.png

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    Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
    21 hours ago, johnholmes said:

    picking up on what phil posts above, he has summed up the UK prospects pretty well in my view.

    I wrote this in my daily check on what the anomaly charts are depicting.

    And by Sat 15 July all 3 have +ve heights and ridging w of uk into trough just e of uk, so another change in emphasis; about the only thing not sown recently, say past 7-10 days, as an active Atlantic flow

    The fact that at 500mb the usually reliable and less prone to the often large variations in the synoptic models does suggest to me that some heat and sun and some rain or showers/storms alternating through the next couple of weeks is probably the quick overview of the weather much of the UK will get. It is also likely that southern areas of the UK will see more of any heat and any storms with a more changeable regime at times for the NW of the UK.

    links to 500 mb anomaly charts

    http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

    http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

     

    anomalies arent consistent surely, and the latest suggest troughing over the uk drifting east since you posted this. troughing over the near continent changes dramatically what we might get, and the azores enemy (whos retrogressing is going to allow the evolution of that nasty little midweek low - remember it was expected to be closer to the uk and ridge between it and the scandinavia high). this change could, imho, be a pattern changer and if it becomes reality theres no quick way back to anything hot after wednesday as the uk will be under a northwesterly upper flow with the azores enemy allowing a cooler unsettled flow across the uk.

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    It looks like the peak of the heat for the south will be around Wednesday after this we see a fairly rapid drop down

    gefsens850London0.thumb.png.16101738c193b56410c66b7ac2eb0f70.png

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    Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: Basically intresting weather,hot,cold,windy you name it
  • Location: sheffield
    22 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

    There's no sign of the CFS heatwave on the Gfs / Ecm 00z..it looks meh to me at best.:D..indeed the big two are singing from the same hymn sheet along with the fat lady.

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    Looking very nice.....apart from the Fat lady that is:)

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    Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
    2 hours ago, Man With Beard said:

     

    The trouble is, with the Atlantic gone AWOL, there isn't anything to push that low away with ridging on both sides holding it in place.

    Such a frustrating problem in this country. Why are we such a trough magnet?! Makes you wonder why, if there's no oomph to push the trough out, why there IS enough to push it in.

    My own hope is that the constant flip flopping of the models means there's no certainty of a trough dominated outlook after the next two days' summery blip versus a more settled one. FI looking very La Niña-esque on some runs.

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    Posted
  • Location: Bedworth
  • Weather Preferences: No Extremes Of Any Kind
  • Location: Bedworth
    2 minutes ago, markyo said:

    Looking very nice.....apart from the Fat lady that is:)

    That green spot doesn't half stick out like a sore thumb doesn't it

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    Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
    5 minutes ago, Gordon Webb said:

    That green spot doesn't half stick out like a sore thumb doesn't it

    last chart of Frostys post looks the worst, follow the winds, sort of setup to be expected in autumn

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester
    5 minutes ago, MP-R said:

    Such a frustrating problem in this country. Why are we such a trough magnet?! Makes you wonder why, if there's no oomph to push the trough out, why there IS enough to push it in.

    My own hope is that the constant flip flopping of the models means there's no certainty of a trough dominated outlook after the next two days' summery blip versus a more settled one. FI looking very La Niña-esque on some runs.

    Always wondered the same...these troughs are in a hurry to get here it seems but then just refuse to leave our shores once they get here. And they hardly ever influence even the near continent.

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester
    22 minutes ago, Gordon Webb said:

    Even Wednesday Temps wise look uninspired away from Eastern side of the Country

     

    ukmaxtemp.png

    We should manage 23/24C at least in Manchester on Wednesday. Probably the last day over 20C for some time.

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    Posted
  • Location: Orebro, Sweden
  • Weather Preferences: Summer time: 26-29 degrees and partly cloudy. Winter time: -4 to -7 and sun
  • Location: Orebro, Sweden

    Another downgrade on latest ECM 0Z compared to yesterday's 12Z which was way more anticyclone

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    Posted
  • Location: Bristol
  • Location: Bristol

    I dare say August will be a better month for Scotland and the wider U.K.  It was discussed prior to summer, that the latter end may herald the better part of summer this year. The EC monthly for at least first half of August looks promising (if you're looking for settled & pleasantly warm weather) will be interesting to see tomorrow's update regarding this potential. 

    Edited by Polar Maritime
    To move discussion on..
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    Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: Basically intresting weather,hot,cold,windy you name it
  • Location: sheffield
    44 minutes ago, Gordon Webb said:

    That green spot doesn't half stick out like a sore thumb doesn't it

    I'll take that sore thumb any day,though i know many wouldn't. Not looking good for heat till at least August now further North. Odd days may be but that's it.

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    Posted
  • Location: Staines, UK or Prague, Czech Republic
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and sunny, thunderstorms, snow, fog, frost, squall lines
  • Location: Staines, UK or Prague, Czech Republic
    51 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

    Always wondered the same...these troughs are in a hurry to get here it seems but then just refuse to leave our shores once they get here. And they hardly ever influence even the near continent.

    Seen this so many times over the last 10-15 years in 'summer'. Troughs race across the Atlantic at the speed of light and then suddenly screech to a halt over the UK, sit there for days, even deepening sometimes, giving wind and rain. Then they suddenly depart but fill at the speed of light again. Utterly vile! Though I disagree that the near continent doesn't get affected, usually it does too. 

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    Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

    I too question the longevity of a shallow trough sitting over us. The Central Pacific upper wind anomaly should too localised to persistently force the pattern so it would not be surprising to see a kick of westerly momentum crop up around the weekend time. 

    That could lift the lingering low out, but will struggle to be enough to bring the Azores High very far toward us. GFS 00z a fair reflection of this with a few drier but still not all that warm days early next week.

    For a better recovery next week we could do with the wind anomalies becoming more neutral again as there is a window of opportunity for another upward swing in AAM. I have seen the models overdoing those C-Pac easterlies on several occasions in recent months so there is a chance.

    Odd thing is there is barely any literature supporting a C-Pac upper wind influence of any significance on Atlantic-European weather patterns, yet recent observations appear to suggest otherwise. The lack of strong theoretical grounding may be why the Met Office have left it late to move away from the drier and warmer stance despite models predicting those anomalously strong C-Pac easterlies for quite some time now.

    In fact, they were predicted before the output even moved away from settled conditions, so I'm not convinced that they have been more than half the story here. The rest may quite simply be hard luck given the extraordinary coincidence of three LP systems in the right region of the N Hemisphere at the right time. Only relatively small time variations could have produced a less undesirable placement of the resulting shallow low; GEM illustrated this yesterday evening.

    Yes, it hurts and some may feel downright cheated out of sole nice weather. Its a bit like when we had impressive easterlies snatched away in Jan-Feb... this sure has been a terrible year for raising and dashing expectations - though it could have been worse given the abundant dry weather and warmth in spring and, for the south, summer so far.

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    Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl

    Unfortunately a number of off topic posts have had to be hidden.

    Please confine content to model discussions in this thread.

    There are a number of other threads for more general weather chat,thanks all.:)

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    Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk
    On 14/07/2017 at 05:37, northwestsnow said:

    I feel physically sick after watching the GFS0z - you really couldnt make it up, we end up under a cold wet trough for days and days..UKMO looks very similar by 144 just to rub salt in the wounds.

    An absolute joke of a climate.

    Looks like the meto warm settled spell is fast going down the kazi, typical really, when the charts look good for either winter cold or summer heat and they go against the charts they often call it right, looks like for all the best will in the world we get shafted, time after time.

    Just hurry up and emigrate, i really need to...:-(

    Emotional post of pure disappointment but I'd be very inclined to say hold on for few more runs yet. 

    Theres bound to be some minor blips in summer. 

    And from being a weather nut and on this site since 2009 I can safely say that I'd hold judgement on the ukmo long-range, 

    Not because the Gfs don't show a scorcher. 

    Its a model that's extremely progressive and often not as accurate after t96. 

    More runs needed. 

    I'm sure over the weekend we will see lows zipping across to North of UK. 

    But with heights rising in Scandinavia 

    Still believe this is going to be a few day unsettled spell at the most I'm not seeing end of summer at all. 

    Possibly humid easterly at some point after the unsettled blip

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    Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
    1 hour ago, Singularity said:

    I. The lack of strong theoretical grounding may be why the Met Office have left it late to move away from the drier and warmer stance despite models predicting those anomalously strong C-Pac easterlies for quite some time now.

    I

     

    I'm not absolutely sure what you mean by this. Are you suggesting that experienced senior forecasters at Exeter do not have the background or qualifications in atmospheric physics to understand teleconnections? Connections which at best remain theoretical for pressure distribution in the eastern Atlantic unless one can take all signals into account and even then.............. Any enlightenment would be appreciated

    Edited by knocker
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    Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

    Looking at the models, I guess the best case scenario for the end of the week into the weekend is if we can hold that low a little further west, a cyclonic south/south westerly will at least hold the temperatures up and encourage some decent convection. The GFS(P) isn't too bad. Temperatures generally in the low twenties so not feeling too bad in the sun.

    gfs-0-126.png?6   gfs-0-150.png?6   gfs-0-174.png?6

    Another route out if we do get that strong Atlantic ridge is that we could sink that low south into France and pull in winds from central Europe which would encourage a rise in temperatures. 

    gfs-0-222.png?6

    Something like that wouldn't be too bad a starting point. 

    At the moment we are kind of scrabbling for a bit of good news. Fair to say this feels like we have been robbed given some solid model support not only from the models we could see but from professional input as we in terms of the Metoffice. 

    Going forward, the GEF are tending to revert to a westerly pattern in the extended range whilst the ECM is back with that la-nina type Scandi trough pattern which has been a regular occurance in the extended range this summer which has never really came off either. We will have to wait and see but a hundred mile or so correction of that slow moving low at the end of the week could drastically change the surface conditions in the mid range, from cool and wet to something much warmer perhaps.

    Best case scenario at the moment seems to be the low stalling somewhere near Ireland and slowly sinking south allowing drier and warmer conditions to develop, but with the caveats of an easterly patter (RIsk of rain in the south and low cloud in the north east). The worst case scenario is low pressure stalling a few hundred miles further east in the north sea with a north westerly feed but with a lot of cloud and a cool and fairly stable atmosphere.

    Edited by Captain Shortwave
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