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Model Output Discussions 12z 01/06/2017


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Call me a wishful thinker but I'm going to make a case for the GEM tonight. In every plume event in the past three years (and there's been a few), the breakdown low from the SW has pushed through faster than forecast at D4/D5. The GEM shows what happens if that low is even a few hours faster - the resultant connection with the low to the NW happens later, and rather than a head on collision that stalls it, the NW low is pulled north, and the Azores High can quickly ridge in by the weekend.

Let's see if the ECM follows. But as this "speeding up" can sometimes only appear at D2/D3, it's something to watch out for even as late as Monday.

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An unseasonally wet, cool and windy day amidst an underwhelming week of weather does not a summer make. Much as anticipated through the second half of Spring, the hand-over to Summer sees the atm

There have been some strange observations made today, as too often occurs in this thread whatever the time of year, and largely based on the usual knee-jerk response to longer term suggested NWP.

You always seem to jump in on my posts, along with a few others. Why don't you try giving your assessment of the models instead of picking holes in others efforts!

Posted Images

The Gem 12z shows a north / south split developing after the more unsettled midweek period as the azores high ridges in across the south of the uk bringing warm and fine conditions with plenty of sunshine, remaining changeable and less warm further north. By the end of the run the azores high looks like it would spread fine weather across all areas beyond T+240 hours. Back to the shorter range, mon / tues look warm and sunny under high pressure but turning very warm and humid from the south with a growing risk of thunderstorms spreading up from the south on tues night and through wednesday followed by cooler / fresher atlantic air through next thursday and friday. Just had a look at the Gfs 12z and it shows plenty of warm anticyclonic weather during low res.:)

DEybakiWAAABF9u.jpg

GEMOPEU12_144_1.png

GEMOPEU12_168_1.png

GEMOPEU12_192_1.png

GEMOPEU12_216_1.png

GEMOPEU12_240_1.png

DEvby-YUMAAmMXm.jpg

Edited by Frosty.
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Wow the Ecm 12z is like a slap in the face with a wet fish, trough decides to remain in-situ over the uk for days and days, similar to what the Gfs has been showing recently..time for Victor meldrew again.. I don't belieeeve it!:D..even worse than the 00z! Now that took some doing..I'm impressed.

120_mslp500.png

144_mslp500.png

168_mslp500.png

192_mslp500.png

216_mslp500.png

240_mslp500.png

th.jpg

Edited by Frosty.
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4 hours ago, northwestsnow said:

Yup.

Im not even convinced its going to ridge in next weekend really.

That trough is going to hang around like a bad smell imho, infact i can see thing deteriating quickly esp with the awful prospect of heighta building to the north and north west, hopefully im barking up the wrong tree would be great to hear om Tamara/gp..

The ecm agrees with your thoughts. Absolutely typical. Is it me or does the last 6 or 7 years seem like groundhog day? The winters and summers have been the same - crud nonentities! 

Edited by blizzard81
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14 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Wow the Ecm 12z is like a slap in the face with a wet fish, trough decides to remain in-situ over the uk for days and days, similar to what the Gfs has been showing recently..time for Victor meldrew again.. I don't belieeeve it!:D..even worse than the 00z! Now that took some doing..I'm impressed.

168_mslp500.png

192_mslp500.png

216_mslp500.png

240_mslp500.png

 

Funny how our fortunes have changed and now we are looking at GFS and GEM with the better charts with the ECM looking pretty poor it's a complete role reversal will be interesting to see if the ECM sticks with it's guns or follows the GFS, comparing the ECM and the GFS keeps the low to the North of Scotland allowing high pressure to ridge into the south admittedly it does bring the low SW over the UK before settling after that even for the North but it's still better than the ECM. Also one thing to keep an eye out for is this CFS chart for August if this remains the same then we may end up with some hot air being drawn in from the continent so maybe don't give up hopes yet if July doesn't go to plan although i do sound like i am clutching at straws here. 

12_192_mslp500.png?cb=642

08_2017_00z_500.png?cb=642

Edited by Summerstorm
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Just now, Summerstorm said:

Funny how our fortunes have changed and now we are looking at GFS and GEM with the better charts with the ECM looking pretty poor it's a complete role reversal will be interesting to see if the ECM sticks with it's guns or follows the GFS, comparing the ECM and the GFS keeps the low to the North of Scotland allowing high pressure to ridge into the south. Also one thing to keep an eye out for is this CFS chart for August if this remains the same then we may end up with some hot air being drawn in from the continent so maybe don't give up hopes yet if July doesn't go to plan although i do sound like i am clutching at straws here. 

12_192_mslp500.png?cb=642

08_2017_00z_500.png?cb=642

I think we should see the funny side of what's happened with the models, it gets too serious in here..it's only the weather and nothing we do or say will change it.:D

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1 minute ago, Frosty. said:

I think we should see the funny side of what's happened with the models, it gets too serious in here..it's only the weather and nothing we do or say will change it.:D

Yep it's a funny old thing weather i guess. We'll just have to see what happens really and i think we do sometimes forget about the fact that we are in the UK here and we shouldn't set our expectations to high i will include myself in that boat.

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18 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Wow the Ecm 12z is like a slap in the face with a wet fish, trough decides to remain in-situ over the uk for days and days, similar to what the Gfs has been showing recently..time for Victor meldrew again.. I don't belieeeve it!:D..even worse than the 00z! Now that took some doing..I'm impressed.

120_mslp500.png

144_mslp500.png

168_mslp500.png

192_mslp500.png

216_mslp500.png

240_mslp500.png

th.jpg

at least its not a dartboard low. Cant contain much rain or wind as its yellow colour and not green snot like it was shown first

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Just now, 40*C said:

at least its not a dartboard low. Cant contain much rain or wind as its yellow colour and not green snot like it was shown first

That's the spirit, look on the bright side!:)

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The ECM 12Z, beyond T72, is the worst summer run I have ever seen. It would get 0 out of 10. Maybe less.

With all the chopping and changing, have previous runs given us any clues? Some past runs for next Friday (can't find GEFS mean archive):

Wednesday 12Z

gfs-0-216.png?12  ECM1-216.GIF?12  EDM1-216.GIF?12

Thursday 00Z

gfs-0-204.png  ECM1-192.GIF?00  EDM1-192.GIF?00

Thursday 12Z

gfs-0-192.png?12  ECM1-192.GIF?12  EDM1-192.GIF?12

Friday 00Z

gfs-0-180.png  ECM1-168.GIF?00  EDM1-168.GIF?00

Friday 12Z

gfs-0-168.png?12  ECM1-168.GIF?12  EDM1-168.GIF?12

Saturday 00Z

gfs-0-156.png  ECM1-144.GIF?00  EDM1-144.GIF?00

Present:

gfs-0-144.png?12  ECM1-144.GIF?12

Interesting to see how the ECM mean was on to it all along, just deepening the signal with time. I've learnt a good lesson this week - when you see a downtick in the 500mb lines, don't go by the colour alone - go by the shape, too.

Now hopefully that means this will be right too - much better shape, even if it is slightly N of W flow.

EDM1-216.GIF?15-12

Edited by Man With Beard
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Gavin Ps recent JMA Friday said both JMA and CFS had the azores ridging in next weekend, with CFS going for heatwave conditions and JMA with a more cooler and dryer option. Not sure what the ECM is looking at to see a trough domination?

Edited by 40*C
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5 minutes ago, 40*C said:

 with CFS going for heatwave conditions 

Isn't it the CFS which keeps predicting severe winters that never happen?:rolleyes:

Edited by Frosty.
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If it were possible, GFS 18Z looking even worse. Not merely a dartboard low - a very deep one too. Unbelievable! Yet so believable

Edit: mean windspeed just west of Ireland over 50 mph at T108 :0 :0

Edited by Man With Beard
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2 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

If it were possible, GFS 18Z looking even worse. Not merely a dartboard low - a very deep one too. Unbelievable! Yet so believable

Well, they need people to keep booking their med hols! 

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22 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

If it were possible, GFS 18Z looking even worse. Not merely a dartboard low - a very deep one too. Unbelievable! Yet so believable

Edit: mean windspeed just west of Ireland over 50 mph at T108 :0 :0

Not that bad, Blink and its gone by sunday

gone by sunday.png

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18z not looking bad for the end of July, just hope this will be a good sign. Hopefully it's not gone by Monday : P The storms would be amazing though for the West with the levels of Cape and precipitation. Temperatures looking good as well

STORM 28.png

TEMP 28.png

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A dry week on offer after next weekend on the 18z as the Azores ridges closer from following a mid-week trough attack from that pesky little green blob but no sooner does it fizzle away after the weekend is done.  

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1 hour ago, TJS1998Tom said:

18z not looking bad for the end of July, just hope this will be a good sign. Hopefully it's not gone by Monday : P The storms would be amazing though for the West with the levels of Cape and precipitation. Temperatures looking good as well

STORM 28.png

TEMP 28.png

My posts get deleted all the time ' But never mind like i said before its all Computer love models . ' they take all of you up the garden shed ' It will be a nice Hot summer for all .

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