Model Output Discussions 12z 01/06/2017

[Frosty.]

The GEFS 12z mean shows different shades of changeable atlantic weather next week with some decent weather further south at times and the worst of the unsettled further north / north-west and this is due to the ebb and flow of the azores high and the lower heights to the nw / n..however, beyond mid July there are signs that the azores high could have a window of opportunity to build in across the uk...fingers crossed!

Edited July 6, 2017 by Frosty.

[mb018538]

Doesn't look terrible, doesn't look brilliant either. Somewhere in the middle I reckon. Could be some pleasant days ahead, along with some cloudy and drizzly ones too. Ecm is broadly similar.

[Frosty.]

A rather changeable Ecm 12z but with occasional ridging further south bringing some fine and pleasantly warm intervals but generally temperatures next week look on the cool side of average, especially further n / nw...it's pretty much a trough / ridge / trough etc set up with northern uk generally experiencing the most inclement conditions. 

Coming back to the short term, there is a chance of a thundery disturbance spreading up from france to affect southern areas and the south stays warm this weekend although nothing like as warm as today has been at Heathrow where it reached 32c...28/29c in the SE tomorrow, 26/27c on saturday, down to 24c on sunday but progressively cooler and more changeable the further N / W you are from that zone.

Edited July 6, 2017 by Frosty.

[Frosty.]

That potential thundery disturbance risk from france I mentioned applies to sunday across the south, saw it on the weather forecast ..

Edited July 6, 2017 by Frosty.

[richep]

I also caught the BBC forecast of thundery rain possibly moving up from France on Sunday. Heard nothing of that until then though

[andybk]

56 minutes ago, richep said:

I also caught the BBC forecast of thundery rain possibly moving up from France on Sunday. Heard nothing of that until then though

yea like it was today ,  

[SizzlingHeat]

I must admit, I have gone old school the past 10 days. I haven't looked at the charts once or logged on here to see what's been going on, just enjoying each day on the beach, in the garden, having bbqs, long swims in the sea, spot of kayaking. Not a care in the world what the weather will be doing in 3 or 4 days time just enjoying each day and the unknown. Its been lovely. No idea what its showing for next week,haven't looked and dont give a toss. Last one from me this summer. Goodnight.

[ANYWEATHER]

10 minutes ago, SizzlingHeat said:

I must admit, I have gone old school the past 10 days. I haven't looked at the charts once or logged on here to see what's been going on, just enjoying each day on the beach, in the garden, having bbqs, long swims in the sea, spot of kayaking. Not a care in the world what the weather will be doing in 3 or 4 days time just enjoying each day and the unknown. Its been lovely. No idea what its showing for next week,haven't looked and dont give a toss. Last one from me this summer. Goodnight.

Hello ,enjoy the weather at big cooler session next week back to the best of British then a 1975 feel about the summer

[Man With Beard]

26 minutes ago, SizzlingHeat said:

I must admit, I have gone old school the past 10 days. I haven't looked at the charts once or logged on here to see what's been going on, just enjoying each day on the beach, in the garden, having bbqs, long swims in the sea, spot of kayaking. Not a care in the world what the weather will be doing in 3 or 4 days time just enjoying each day and the unknown. Its been lovely. No idea what its showing for next week,haven't looked and dont give a toss. Last one from me this summer. Goodnight.

We haven't needed models in on the south coast for the past five summers. - we just seem to keep getting great weather!!

Looking at the models for next week, I remain confident that a NWly will still feel hot in the sun down here - more changeable further north. But then you don't want to hear that, do you

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

20 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

We haven't needed models in on the south coast for the past five summers. - we just seem to keep getting great weather!!

Looking at the models for next week, I remain confident that a NWly will still feel hot in the sun down here - more changeable further north. But then you don't want to hear that, do you

Dont rub it in. Just remember those up North can get a decent nights sleep without sticking to their mattress. But then again you don't want to hear that do you?

[Mark wheeler]

Something I have noticed which probably means nothing , is that the 15th keeps showing some promise. This being the latest .

 

[knocker]

There is little change with  the GEFs anomaly this morning so little need to update the waffle

Instead a quick look at detail in the near future which is of interest. It has been mentioned previously that the current long wave set up lends itself to two or three possibilities vis the detailed evolution. One of them appears to be applicable this weekend.

The Azores is waxing in a manner which temporarily interrupts the west-east energy/trough transport but not in a manner that would bring the UK directly under it's influence. Thus. the latter comes under a very slack pressure regime which allows some northward drift of some unstable air from the south and perhaps some thundery activity. A scenario that on a good day can initiate some impressive WAA. This isn't one of the good days and one suspects that if this does materialize the convective activity may well be confined to the SE but even at this stage who knows.

The shallow low quickly moves away east but the slack pressure regime remains with the gfs creating a weak high cell before normal service is resumed. If it actually pans out this way it wouldn't be too bad with maybe a couple of very weak fronts traversing the country with temps around average.

Edited July 7, 2017 by knocker

[knocker]

Overall the ecm not dissimilar to the gfs but with quite a showery day on Monday and ending the run with a quite familiar, and not unexpected,r analysis

[Glacier Point]

Next 10 days looking a little mixed, but not washout territory and I have to question just how unsettled it will be, principally a belief that models aren't handling the trough to the NE Atlantic at all well.

Thereafter, it does get interesting. 

My expectation for August has been for pressure rising (in tandem with that for Europe) over Scandinavia. That places most of Europe on the eastern flank of a trough shifted west in the Atlantic. 

So, we have EC monthly last two runs going for this and CFS also advertising the pattern.

EC EPS this morning showing a notable upward trend in T850  for a large proportion of members from day 10 onwards.

Operational GFS for the last few runs also beginning to drop hints with pattern changes and rising pressure south and north-east of us.

[Gael_Force]

You can add the latest JMA to the list.

 

[Singularity]

Large-scale mechanisms at work behind that settling down and heating up trend later this month.

I do also wonder if some positive adjustment may be witnessed later this coming week, as the La Nina-like swing gets toned down. To a slight extent this has already happened but we can't be sure that this trend will continue. Arguably it's being a bit greedy given the impressive longer-term signals, but generally it's best to play for that which is nearer in time and so more dependable.

Edited July 7, 2017 by Singularity

[knocker]

The EPS mean anomaly this morning is not looking at any significant change in the 14 day period. What is beginning to show is a gradual weakening of the low pressure N. Canada/Greenland and the associated trough south east which encourages height rises in mid Atlantic thus veering the upper flow. This would portend a more settled influence in the south but with the north copping the more unsettled weather as usual. Temps still around average  NOAA not disagreeing with this, perhaps not pushing the Azores quite as much.

The EC 46 means update continues with this theme until the end of July with temps above average for much of the last third of the month before lapsing again. So basically the Azores centred to the south west and the north west remain the controlling influences.

[Mark wheeler]

I seem to be getting an obsession with the 15th of July , the models keep churning out good charts for this date as yesterday's post .

 

And as previous runs this is short lived .

 

Edited July 7, 2017 by Mark wheeler

[Frosty.]

7 hours ago, Singularity said:

Large-scale mechanisms at work behind that settling down and heating up trend later this month.

I do also wonder if some positive adjustment may be witnessed later this coming week, as the La Nina-like swing gets toned down. To a slight extent this has already happened but we can't be sure that this trend will continue. Arguably it's being a bit greedy given the impressive longer-term signals, but generally it's best to play for that which is nearer in time and so more dependable.

Top post as usual Singularity

Good to see Exeter is still hinting at a warmer more settled spell developing during the second half of July..just hope it upgrades into a nationwide summery spell instead of the usual north / south divide!

[Kentspur]

2 hours ago, Mark wheeler said:

I seem to be getting an obsession with the 15th of July , the models keep churning out good charts for this date as yesterday's post .

 

And as previous runs this is short lived .

 

Everyone's obsessed as it's my birthday and the famous St swithuns day will it be 40 days and 40 nights of heat?

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

5 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Top post as usual Singularity

Good to see Exeter is still hinting at a warmer more settled spell developing during the second half of July..just hope it upgrades into a nationwide summery spell instead of the usual north / south divide!

Take no notice of GFS and MO long range as neither will come off. Statistically speaking, whenever does a positive long range forecast come off? Just like almost all models had eyes on a "hot and dry" first half of summer that failed to fully materialise. I can't believe I fell for it. Too much attention gets paid to models in the 10+ day range when the even the 3 day range cant even be resolved. 

I wonder which model will be the first to drop the idea of this warm settled spell?

 

[Mark wheeler]

10 minutes ago, Kentspur said:

Everyone's obsessed as it's my birthday and the famous St swithuns day will it be 40 days and 40 nights of heat?

Here we go again . 

Blink and you will miss it .

 

Edited July 7, 2017 by Mark wheeler

[Frosty.]

Yes the Ecm 12z perks up for the south later next week with a warmer more settled few days as the azores high ridges in across southern uk for a time..hopefully at some point this summer the north of the uk will be included!

Edited July 7, 2017 by Frosty.

[Frosty.]

It's a changeable outlook on tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean, there is some fine and pleasantly warm intervals, especially further south / south-east with the most unsettled and coolest conditions mostly further north / north-west. Later next week there are signs that the azores ridge may bring a few days of warmer and largely settled weather to the south as the operational run showed.

[mushymanrob]

10 hours ago, Frosty. said:

It's a changeable outlook on tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean, there is some fine and pleasantly warm intervals, especially further south / south-east with the most unsettled and coolest conditions mostly further north / north-west. Later next week there are signs that the azores ridge may bring a few days of warmer and largely settled weather to the south as the operational run showed.

you highlight why the azores high is the enemy of summer... the anomaly charts support this too... average at best but with transient ridging that might produce a hot day here and there. but no lasting heatwave whilst the azh sits there - on the other hand, no monsoon either.