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Model Output Discussions 12z 01/06/2017


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4 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

And there haven't been any 'downgrades' to the heat, as the models were never showing anything spectacular anyway- certainly no more than 3 or 4 days have been shown at any point.

He was talking about next week 're downgrades, comparing the Gfs 6z and 12z..massive gulf..but, next week is still up in the air.

Edited by Frosty.
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An unseasonally wet, cool and windy day amidst an underwhelming week of weather does not a summer make. Much as anticipated through the second half of Spring, the hand-over to Summer sees the atm

There have been some strange observations made today, as too often occurs in this thread whatever the time of year, and largely based on the usual knee-jerk response to longer term suggested NWP.

You always seem to jump in on my posts, along with a few others. Why don't you try giving your assessment of the models instead of picking holes in others efforts!

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All systems are go for a significant warm up for the south on this evening's Ecm 12z, becoming hot and humid across the s / se during the second half of this week..turning warmer across southern uk generally and potentially some fireworks in the form of thunderstorms and torrential downpours later this week too.

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Edited by Frosty.
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11 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

All systems are go for a significant warm up for the south on this evening's Ecm 12z, becoming hot and humid across the s / se during the second half of this week..turning warmer across southern uk generally and potentially some fireworks in the form of thunderstorms and torrential downpours later this week too.

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There's about as much chance of widespread thunderstorms as there is of a british woman winning wimbledon.

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4 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

I didn't say anything about widespread thunderstorms, I said potentially some Storms. Don't misquote me.

And that was an objective statement of likelihoods is all.

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Just now, Frosty. said:

You always seem to jump in on my posts, along with a few others. Why don't you try giving your assessment of the models instead of picking holes in others efforts!

How is making an objective statement inferring any criticism on you? I was merely stating that every time there's been mention of thunderstorms, we've seen very little. I will therefore try to be more concise in the future

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not my intention to take sides but in my opinion neither of the last few posts from you both could be considered wrong as you both make arguably valid statements , and frosty I know I'm one of the ones who jumps on your posts , I apologise for that just like I'm sure I did last year lol , I tend to post a reply before reading the whole of the post and get a distorted opinion , a habit I shall try and break from now on

Edited by Gordon Webb
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Hello . Could we please refrain from slagging each other off, after all this is the mod thread not the slagging thread , there is the models ramp and moan threads to do this   Thankyou:)

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The GEFS 12z mean follows the operational..kind of.. with a cooler / fresher weekend followed by a coolish westerly changeable / atlantic pattern next week and beyond with the azores high unable to build in across the uk.

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Edited by Frosty.
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12 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

with cape readings like this, thunderstorms are a distinct possibility and IF they kick off, they are likely to be violent. Frosty saying theres potential for fireworks in the form of thunderstorms and torrential downpours is id suggest, a very fair assessment .

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Also with the pressure lowering there will be nothing like the cap under the high a few weeks ago.

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Evening All! Well its high summer and the weather is at last playing ball. So Thursday looks like a thundery plume for the south ,after that it turns fresher and cooler for the weekend ,just as its done for eons:rofl::rofl::rofl:

Spoiler

 

 

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2 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:

Evening All! Well its high summer and the weather is at last playing ball. So Thursday looks like a thundery plume for the south ,after that it turns fresher and cooler for the weekend ,just as its done for eons:rofl::rofl::rofl:

  Reveal hidden contents

 

 

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supoose it's just a question of how north this potential thundery plume gets and either my display is screwed or the hidden contents are very disappointing

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Some decent temperatures across central/southern England over the next few days.

arpegeuk-41-50-0.png?03-18   arpegeuk-41-76-0.png?03-18   arpegeuk-41-98-0.png?03-19

Obviously treat Friday with a lot of caution given uncertainties with the progression of fronts. The odd looking Thursday chart is due to bands of rain and showers moving across the UK in association with that cut off low, these are predicted to be thundery. So high twenties possible in a fairly modest set up, you don't need much to develop some very warm conditions across southern areas, a lot harder to develop this UK wide. 

Some charts for potential thunder on Thursday.

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15 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:

Some decent temperatures across central/southern England over the next few days.

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Obviously treat Friday with a lot of caution given uncertainties with the progression of fronts. The odd looking Thursday chart is due to bands of rain and showers moving across the UK in association with that cut off low, these are predicted to be thundery. So high twenties possible in a fairly modest set up, you don't need much to develop some very warm conditions across southern areas, a lot harder to develop this UK wide. 

Some charts for potential thunder on Thursday.

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hmm Thursday despite the temps weather might not be too clever , just have to see how it pans out , don't mind me I'm just killing time waiting for my pizza to be delivered

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Ah well the GFS 06Z was fun while it lasted. Sorry if I got anyone's hopes up! Seemed a bit too much to ask both Atlantic lows to go towards Iberia (I refer to my posts earlier today for context!!).

Mind you, it hasn't happened yet so they still could? :)

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1 hour ago, mushymanrob said:

with cape readings like this, thunderstorms are a distinct possibility and IF they kick off, they are likely to be violent. Frosty saying theres potential for fireworks in the form of thunderstorms and torrential downpours is id suggest, a very fair assessment .

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I can empathise with what Iceman is saying however. Every time that storms have been shown this summer, they have been downgraded to a whimper- it has certainly hacked me off no end.

Back to the modelling here and now, the ECM seems to be out of whack at 72 hours when compared to the UKMO and GFS- from the surface pressure charts for Thursday I would imagine that the focus of any storm activity would be towards the S&E. The UKMO and 12z GFS has the risk more widespread but even the GFS had moved E slightly of its 6z position. 

Longer term it's a bit of a knife edge as to where we head. I personally wouldn't like to commit to either outcome, whether that be a profoundly more unsettled and cooler outcome or more of a warm/hot continental one.

Edited by CreweCold
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18 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Ah well the GFS 06Z was fun while it lasted. Sorry if I got anyone's hopes up! Seemed a bit too much to ask both Atlantic lows to go towards Iberia (I refer to my posts earlier today for context!!).

Mind you, it hasn't happened yet so they still could? :)

Don't feel guilty:D, you were just reporting on what the 6z showed, as was I..:)..and as you say, there is time for a better outcome.

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9 hours ago, CreweCold said:

I can empathise with what Iceman is saying however. Every time that storms have been shown this summer, they have been downgraded to a whimper- it has certainly hacked me off no end.

 

maybe, but the potential , which is what was mentioned, is there on the models so mentioning it doesnt really deserve ridicule unless theres supportative evidence presented as to why its unlikely to happen.  EDIT carole kirkwood on breakfast has just said there will be some 'humdingers' but not everybody will get one.

first signs of the azores high drifting eastward?... maybe im looking too hard but the current 8-14 day noaa anomaly appears to suggest slight height rise to our south and an eastward drift of the azh? (maybe its the dropping of the shallow trough off iberia that makes it appear thus...

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/500mb.php

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12 hours ago, Ice Man 85 said:

There's about as much chance of widespread thunderstorms as there is of a british woman winning wimbledon.

johanna konta must be quite happy with those odds then! :p

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Looking very westerly after the weekend! Not especially cool, just bang average. Best of the conditions towards the SE. Not sure what else to add at the moment! :D

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16 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

maybe, but the potential , which is what was mentioned, is there on the models so mentioning it doesnt really deserve ridicule unless theres supportative evidence presented as to why its unlikely to happen.  EDIT carole kirkwood on breakfast has just said there will be some 'humdingers' but not everybody will get one.

first signs of the azores high drifting eastward?... maybe im looking too hard but the current 8-14 day noaa anomaly appears to suggest slight height rise to our south and an eastward drift of the azh? (maybe its the dropping of the shallow trough off iberia that makes it appear thus...

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/500mb.php

Morning Rob

Yes i think the relationship between the Azores and the continuing low pressure in the north Canada/ Greenland area (not forgetting the continuing low pressure over the Arctic) quite interesting at the moment as regards the possibilities

Yesterdays EPS was not interesting in moving the centre east so that leaves two options that I can see. One is for the Azores to ridge sufficiently ENE to keep troughs emanating from the NW dipping south east over the UK which is the scenario we most familiar with as you get the waxing and waning with the different phasing of the cool/warm air.and the tendency for a N/S split.

And the second option is also familiar in which the ridging weakens somewhat and allows upper troughs to be transported either around or through the ridgeon a still fairly strong upper flow which in the best case scenario intensifies to the south and initiates some more WAA

Currently the former option would appear to be the percentage play

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Tomorrow looks very warm in the south / south-east and the same goes for thurs / fri..hot and sticky in the south and especially the south-east but thursday potentially brings some severe thunderstorms..impressive CAPE values.  :)

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Yep following on from Karls post  here are a quick selection of charts for Thursday.  Of course this is the GFS and only one run so caveats apply however.  some interest for sure  with high Dew points  things could potentially go bang

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