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Model Output Discussions 12z 01/06/2017


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38 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Is it me or has the low at the weekend tracked a bit further west compared to a few days back? I'm fairly certain UKMO had Saturday's low right over the UK on Sunday's 00z and 12z

UKMOPEU00_96_1.thumb.png.67355850891f32c21bd9cfd756b23a75.pngUKMOPEU00_120_1.thumb.png.29f9cd73269bbfee9fe2947d8895514b.pngUKMOPEU00_144_1.thumb.png.bc2ce56c5bb4778aa919739675638292.png

You aren't imagining things Summer Sun...

UW144-21.GIF?04-12

the centre is much further west than was modelled a couple of days back. Sunday actually looks pretty warm on the UKMO run for the SE.....the brief pulse of heat is also there on the GFS and ECM this morning, but is more pronounced on the UKMO. Looking much quieter thereafter, but no heat wave on the cards.....for now.

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An unseasonally wet, cool and windy day amidst an underwhelming week of weather does not a summer make. Much as anticipated through the second half of Spring, the hand-over to Summer sees the atm

There have been some strange observations made today, as too often occurs in this thread whatever the time of year, and largely based on the usual knee-jerk response to longer term suggested NWP.

You always seem to jump in on my posts, along with a few others. Why don't you try giving your assessment of the models instead of picking holes in others efforts!

Posted Images

Rukm1201.gif    Recm1201.gif Rgem1201.gif Rtavn1201.gif

From best to worst - quite the spread of outcomes still for the weekend low's strength and track. Amazing that UKMO has it so much weaker than ECM and GFS.

Rukm1441.gif  Recm1441.gif  Rgem1441.gif Rtavn1441.gif

Anyone's guess going into next week. There seems to be no dominant signal whatsoever. UKMO seems to be the only one even trying to restore an Atlantic trough/NW Europe ridge pattern as would be expected when just considering seasonal wavelength changes against a neutral ENSO background... this stalled Scandi trough idea from GFS and GEM is a surprising one to be seeing for mid-June this year. It may be because by some measures the MJO has just about made it into phase 6 with significant amplitude at the moment, which may be enough to produce a lagged response on the Scandi heights tendency;

JunePhase6gt1500mb.gif

So it could be a case of hard luck there - but only if GFS and GEM are not propagating the response too cleanly. ECM introduces a major complication in the form of a broad mid-Atlantic trough days 8-10, with the combined picture favouring a changeable regime, most settled in the south and least so in the north. Just one of a myriad of possibilities as we struggle to find a more enjoyable weather pattern as there has been so much hope for by the final third or week or the month.

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h850t850eu.png  h850t850eu.png h850t850eu.png

GFS 06z is kind enough to find a path to the mid-Atlantic trough and NW-Europe ridge with the Scandi trough only a transitional feature.

Takes until Tue for the breeze to properly die down though. I wonder if this will be one of the windiest 7- or 8-day periods on record for June?

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Hmm ^^ is that the same EC monthly that continually pointed to impending cold and snow throughout the winter that failed to Happen? I hope we don't spend the next 3 months chasing heatwaves in FI that never materialise! 

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3 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

If you are not a fan of heat,look away now,the 12z gfs is a corker and would make for a nice birthday present:D

gfs-0-192.png?12gfs-1-192.png?12

ok,the 850's are not that warm but it is miles better than prevous runs,i just hope this trend continues and not be a warm outlier.

Agreed! It is much better than yesterday's 12z in placing the high slap bang on top of us. 850's are a little better too and start to increase thanks to a continental influence towards the end of the run :D 

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35 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

If you are not a fan of heat,look away now,the 12z gfs is a corker and would make for a nice birthday present:D

gfs-0-192.png?12gfs-1-192.png?12

ok,the 850's are not that warm but it is miles better than prevous runs,i just hope this trend continues and not be a warm outlier.

Bank that GFS op run all the way. Hopefully the ECM will back it later.

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37 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

If you are not a fan of heat,look away now,the 12z gfs is a corker and would make for a nice birthday present:D

gfs-0-192.png?12gfs-1-192.png?12

ok,the 850's are not that warm but it is miles better than prevous runs,i just hope this trend continues and not be a warm outlier.

That would still be a warm day without particularly decent uppers at this time of year.

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1 minute ago, mountain shadow said:

Bank that GFS op run all the way. Hopefully the ECM will back it later.

Yes,will be interesting to see the ens later to see if it is an outlier

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2 minutes ago, MKN said:

That would still be a warm day without particularly decent uppers at this time of year.

Yes,just looked:D

192-580UK.GIF?06-12

let's not get carried away just yet though,still a week away and hopefully it will get warmer than this nearer the time:)

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All depends on what happens around this critical point IMO

gfs-0-192.png?12

This is day 8-

The 12z shows the perfect scenario where you get enough split of the jet to enable the high pressure to stay in situ for days on end. However, should there be less of a tendency for that inflection of the jet (up through Iceland) then we'd either have a scenario where the HP is readily flattened and thus letting a NW/SE split occur (very common) or a scenario where too much jet energy is being modelled in the northern arm and we see mean jet energy shift S and allow an 'overshoot' of the HP with LP eventually encroaching from the SW.

Will be fascinating to see how this plays out because the 12z GFS is advocating a prolonged period of dry and warm weather...

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The 12z is (as expected) one of the warmest and driest ensemble members - there are plenty still peddling the muck shown in previous runs. There are also a number of very warm/hot runs appearing, though the bulk still clustered around average. Let's see what the ecm says!

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15 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

The 12z is (as expected) one of the warmest and driest ensemble members - there are plenty still peddling the muck shown in previous runs. There are also a number of very warm/hot runs appearing, though the bulk still clustered around average. Let's see what the ecm says!

Yep, no denying that...

gefsens850london0.png?cb

As you allude to though, it's not like it's a wild outlier, there are plenty of warmer runs appearing and, barring the very end of FI, it's pretty dry across the board for the SE too. You would imagine it's all down to the orientation of the high pressure :) It's encouraging to see the mean take on a gradual upward trend, indicating an increasing agreement on a warm and settled spell.

As @CreweCold mentions, there is still the chance of a NW/SE split next week, and that is still evident on the ensembles for Belfast...

gefsens850belfast0.png?cb=141

The operational is understandably one of the warmer options, but notice the precip spikes from 17th June onwards indicating a fall in pressure as the high flattens. Thankfully this option is in the minority but there's enough members to pay attention to it on future runs.

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High pressure building in from the SW at 168hrs on the ECM,the 192hrs should just about do it i would of thought.

ECM1-168.GIF?06-0

not quiet but getting there,i feel that this is going to be a good run from the ecm:D

ECM1-192.GIF?06-0

Edited by Allseasons-si
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Ecm comes to the party too...as others have said, you don't need really high 850s in summer to get a nice day. As long as you have a clear high pressure, temps will climb into the mid 20s with 850s around 5-8c some of the time. As ever, more runs will be needed to nail down a change in pattern, but tonight's output is a great start.

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On 6/5/2017 at 01:43, A Frayed Knot said:

UK METO  are going For a Warmer spell at the end of this working week ' stick to what they say ,instead of above posts .

Like is said yesterday ... (y)

Edited by Polar Maritime
But it's the Model Output Discussion thread.
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GFS 12z showing around 22c for that time period in my area at least. I hope it doesn't go higher and repeat the conditions a few weeks back. I know most of you would relish 30c from now until the autumn, but 21/22 is enough for me; a fan is still useful and the nights are not as sticky.

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