Model Output Discussions 12z 01/06/2017

[northwestsnow]

Jury still out for july.Azores high desperately trying to ridge NE but coming up against a pretty active Atlantic( when isnt it these days).Fascinating model watching..:-)

[Frosty.]

6 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Jury still out for july.Azores high desperately trying to ridge NE but coming up against a pretty active Atlantic( when isnt it these days).Fascinating model watching..:-)

Agreed, it's going to be fascinating to see if the met office hints for a better 2nd half of July come to fruition. In my opinion the azores high will build in strongly at some point in the next 4 weeks, in the meantime, more ebb and flow between lower heights to the nw / n and the azores high + height rises across mainland Europe.

Edited July 2, 2017 by Frosty.

[Frosty.]

Well it certainly looks like warming up through the week ahead, especially further south where it will also become increasingly humid with more of a continental feel and I expect there will be good sunny periods but with an increasing chance of T-Storms later in the week..the kind of summer weather I like.

Edited July 2, 2017 by Frosty.

[MP-R]

2 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Well it certainly looks like warming up through the week ahead, especially further south where it will also become increasingly humid with more of a continental feel and I expect there will be good sunny periods but with an increasing chance of T-Storms later in the week..the kind of summer weather I like.

That low coming up from Spain is going to determine whether we receive something along the lines of what you've described or something much cooler and wetter. A difficult few days of forecasting to come I think.

[Frosty.]

Just now, MP-R said:

That low coming up from Spain is going to determine whether we receive something along the lines of what you've described or something much cooler and wetter. A difficult few days of forecasting to come I think.

I'm going by the MO and the Ecm 00z..with my usual dash of optimism thrown in!

[knocker]

The EPS 6-10 anomalies. No significant change out to day 14. This low pressure in the Canada/Greenland region is not doing us any favours.

[Frosty.]

I'm liking the Gfs 6z for the week ahead..warming up nicely, especially further south, in fact, becoming very warm and humid later in the week. There would be plenty of sunshine but some heavy showers and thunderstorms dotted around too although the s / se enjoying the best of the sunshine and dry conditions but still a risk of isolated storms..Bank 

Edited July 2, 2017 by Frosty.

[Frosty.]

2 hours ago, MP-R said:

That low coming up from Spain is going to determine whether we receive something along the lines of what you've described or something much cooler and wetter. A difficult few days of forecasting to come I think.

Agreed, a tricky forecasting week coming up but I think becoming noticeably more summery compared to last week with warmth returning from the south and for storm fans..could be interesting after midweek

Edited July 2, 2017 by Frosty.

[Gordon Webb]

9 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Agreed, a tricky forecasting week coming up but I think becoming noticeably more summery compared to last week with warmth returning from the south and for storm fans..could be interesting after midweek

something more summery than last week isn't really setting the bar that high now is it , you could have relatively poor weather and still be better than last week

[Frosty.]

1 minute ago, Gordon Webb said:

something more summery than last week isn't really setting the bar that high now is it , you could have relatively poor weather and still be better than last week

I've already described the Gfs 6z, it looks proper summery during the second half of the week ahead..I poorly worded the post you refer to, perhaps I should have said a marked improvement, temperature wise!

[richep]

What's the precipitation predictions for the 8th, got an airshow Saturday and can do without that 

[Frosty.]

6 minutes ago, richep said:

What's the precipitation predictions for the 8th, got an airshow Saturday and can do without that 

An airshow where..Somerset or elsewhere?

It looks like a general sunshine and showers mix with warm temperatures according to the latest data from the Gfs 6z operational.

Edited July 2, 2017 by Frosty.

[richep]

Sorry, yeah yeovilton,somerset. Can deal with showers if that's the case, starting to get the impression of a thundery breakdown Saturday which usually leaves a load of low level muck. Cheers for the reply frosty , shall be keeping a close eye on this anyway as is likely to change. Thanks 

[Frosty.]

3 minutes ago, richep said:

Sorry, yeah yeovilton,somerset. Can deal with showers if that's the case, starting to get the impression of a thundery breakdown Saturday which usually leaves a load of low level muck. Cheers for the reply frosty , shall be keeping a close eye on this anyway as is likely to change. Thanks 

You're welcome, it's very difficult to impossible at that range to determine precipitation but hope it stays dry and bright for you.

Edited July 2, 2017 by Frosty.

[richep]

Thanks mate , I know what it's like, just trying to get a rough idea.

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

We have a weakening Atlantic dominating weather pattern until around 16th and some real tasty uppers not too far way so expect a plumey July and with a lot of record heat on the continent who knows what will come post 16th. My hunch is that something severe and short lived will occur along the lines of Aug 1990.

[Frosty.]

51 minutes ago, 40*C said:

My hunch is that something severe and short lived will occur along the lines of Aug 1990.

Yes please! think it almost got to 100F 37 / 38 celsius if I'm correct. If it's followed by an August 1995..this will be an exceptionally good summer.

 

Edited July 2, 2017 by Frosty.

[Frosty.]

According to the Gfs 12z, Friday could be a hot one for the s / se with 30c 86f..bearing in mind that the gfs under plays max temps some times by 3-4c it could be a scorcher later in the week with thunderstorm potential too..an increasingly summery week coming up.

Edited July 2, 2017 by Frosty.

[mb018538]

It does frosty yep....to me though that looks about right this time. Don't think we will see any 32/33c off that set up, it's rained a lot recently, and there won't be the heat build up that you usually require. UKMO isn't as hot either. Could go either way, let's see what ECM says later!

[Frosty.]

4 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

It does frosty yep....to me though that looks about right this time. Don't think we will see any 32/33c off that set up, it's rained a lot recently, and there won't be the heat build up that you usually require. UKMO isn't as hot either. Could go either way, let's see what ECM says later!

Agreed, I think 30c maybe 31c 88f could be squeezed out somewhere in London or Essex / Kent if everything falls perfectly into place for friday..potentially hot and humid with thunderstorms risk.

[Gordon Webb]

19 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

According to the Gfs 12z, Friday could be a hot one for the s / se with 30c 86f..bearing in mind that the gfs under plays max temps some times by 3-4c it could be a scorcher later in the week with thunderstorm potential too..an increasingly summery week coming up.

those from the Northern Midlands Northwards ,Wales and Scotland in particular feel free to ignore these charts as they don't really apply , those in the SE corner as you were

[Ice Man 85]

1 minute ago, Gordon Webb said:

those from the Northern Midlands Northwards ,Wales and Scotland in particular feel free to ignore these charts as they don't really apply , those in the SE corner as you were

Factoring the usual undercook, it could well reach 28 again in my area. It was really nice today aswell. Sunny, dry but not hot. This summer seems hell bent on feeding us extremes one way or the other. Roll on, Autumn. Roll on.

[Scorcher]

12 minutes ago, Gordon Webb said:

those from the Northern Midlands Northwards ,Wales and Scotland in particular feel free to ignore these charts as they don't really apply , those in the SE corner as you were

What about the 26C the chart you commented on shows around the Durham area? That's well north of  the Midlands.

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

38 minutes ago, Ice Man 85 said:

No, Thank you:

Across England and Wales, the heat placed strains on every day life. Transport was affected with road closures as surfaces melted, a runway at Heathrow airport suffered similar problems and, as a precaution, speed restrictions were in force for some inter-city trains in case rails buckled. There was also a surge in hospital admissions with heat-related conditions, and an increased mortality rate. The fire services were kept busy tackling heath and farmland fires that broke out in dry conditions that had prevailed since March. On 3 and 4 August there was a spate of drownings as people turned to swimming as a way of keeping cool. The entire stock of a Liverpool chocolate factory melted and at Stansted Mountfichet Castle, Essex a waxwork knight melted into a puddle.

Give me an August 2012

You live in Skelmersdale overlooking the fresh and cool Atlantic so how does SE affect you?

[Mark wheeler]

14 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Agreed, I think 30c maybe 31c 88f could be squeezed out somewhere in London or Essex / Kent if everything falls perfectly into place for friday..potentially hot and humid with thunderstorms risk.

I'm not celebrating a short hot spell yet Frosty although I hope it will come , Ukmo not in agreement although no disaster further south , so let's hope the  ECM  is on side .