Model Output Discussions 12z 01/06/2017

[Frosty.]

3 minutes ago, Snowy L said:

I appreciate you being optimistic, but 14^oC (the forecast for Wednesday) is not normal summer fayre, it's standard early Spring fayre. That's 6 degrees below average. Friday/Saturday was typical summer weather: a bit of rain, some sun and feeling comfortable with temperatures of around 20^oC. Monday aside, there's no point beating around the bush, it looks terrible and it's weather typical of October, not late June.

Being a weather fan I appreciate all kinds of weather..apart from mild mush in winter..despite what you say, there is some warm sunshine to enjoy in the week ahead along with the heavy downpours and a risk of thunder.

[knocker]

A brief resume of this morning's gfs as I'm sure most people are au fait with the evolution this week.

Over the next 36 hours or so a shallow low tracks into Ireland with associated fronts bringing rain to the north west during this evening which will gradually spread east. Whilst another shallow low to the south will track north east. Both lows will deepen to some extent and a complex area of low pressure is established over the UK and western Europe which hangs around until Friday. Thus a mixture of sunny intervals and showers with a wide spread of temps but generally around average. Tuesday ranging from 10C in northern Scotland to 24C in Portsmouth; Wednesday 12c -21C and Thursday the start of a brief cool down with only 12-14C down as far as Worcester.

By this time the low pressure is moving east as we get into a new regime that has been sign posted vis the interaction between the troughs/cooler air tracking from the eastern seaboard and N. Canada/Greenland and the warmer Azores air pushing north. the phasing of this tends to dictate the UK weather and generally results in a N/S bias.Thus by Sunday we have this analysis

From this point some brief ridging before a major upper trough arrives in mid Atlantic with associated deep surface depression and a subsidiary low girding it's loins by the middle of the week which seems an excellent point to leave it.

Edited June 26, 2017 by knocker

[mb018538]

Hopefully in time to come we will see a trough drop out into the atlantic, with another one to our east, along with a pressure build in our vicinity - much like the last hot spell. Not looking quite as unsettled after this week, more your typical summer weather of sunshine and showers, with the best conditions the further S and E you head.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

9 hours ago, Snowy L said:

I appreciate you being optimistic, but 14^oC (the forecast for Wednesday) is not normal summer fayre, it's standard early Spring fayre. That's 6 degrees below average. Friday/Saturday was typical summer weather: a bit of rain, some sun and feeling comfortable with temperatures of around 20^oC. Monday aside, there's no point beating around the bush, it looks terrible and it's weather typical of October, not late June.

infact nowadays, not that uncommon Dec to Feb

[knocker]

Nothing constructive to add vis the ecm so just a couple examples of the cold/warm air interaction

[Summer Sun]

The SE could see some torrential rain on Wednesday morning

[mushymanrob]

11 hours ago, ANYWEATHER said:

Evening All ,Hope you have had a good weekend. Outlook uninspiring at the ten day range from  Gfs and Ecm if you like High Summer weather . We have had a BIG  bite of the cherry this year with a hot spell the last week in May and another hot spell just last week the 3rd week in June. . Normal British weather resuming . Looks a 1975ish summer .intence downpours in some places .Bone dry in others

sorry, it doesnt look anything like '75, which was high pressure dominated with one thundery spell in early july (i think it was).

[mushymanrob]

anomaly charts have changed, are inconsistent, so are of little use which can be seen as a good thing because it leaves the door open for something favourable to appear.....

hmmph... thats a hopecast i guess.

[knocker]

1 hour ago, mushymanrob said:

anomaly charts have changed, are inconsistent, so are of little use which can be seen as a good thing because it leaves the door open for something favourable to appear.....

hmmph... thats a hopecast i guess.

That puzzles me slightly as the ones I use are still very much in the same ball park albeit not being completely in agreement. The EPS retains the N.Canadian low through to day 14 although is losing the negative anomaly in the Atlantic, albeit still a westerly upper flow.. So still changeable for the foreseeable future with the usual caveats but we are getting to the time when the Azores may start getting a tad more influential. It's going to require a massive pattern swing, which is not obvious at the moment, to initiate further WAA in the beginning of July. Not unknown of course

[johnholmes]

Well what about the basic stuff I use, let's see how they are. The ECMWF-GFS output had been along similar lines for 2 days or so,  until this morning when they dropped their suggested ridging south of the UK, see below

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

It had become quite noticeable.

Below is last evening from NOAA 6-10

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

This had been consistent with itself in NOT showing much in terms of +ve height anomalies south of the UK, it does so again on this ouput. So to me, with NOAA usually the nearest to the predicted 500 mb flow than the other two when there are differences, the forecast suggests not much signal for any settled or hot weather. We might just about squeeze a 24 hour window but that woukld be about it in my view. At least the 500 mb flow is not a strong one, a bit stronger in its 8-14 day version. On all of them the fairly rounded trough shown best on the 8-14 NOAA suggests nothing too drastic but neither much looking like approaching the upper air profile during the 'heat' for many recently?

Just my view and you may disagree, please do.

 

[Summer Sun]

UKMO again shows the high getting closer to the UK by the weekend so maybe a bit better more so in the south

Thursday

Saturday

Sunday

Edited June 26, 2017 by Summer Sun

[mushymanrob]

5 hours ago, knocker said:

That puzzles me slightly as the ones I use are still very much in the same ball park albeit not being completely in agreement. The EPS retains the N.Canadian low through to day 14 although is losing the negative anomaly in the Atlantic, albeit still a westerly upper flow.. So still changeable for the foreseeable future with the usual caveats but we are getting to the time when the Azores may start getting a tad more influential. It's going to require a massive pattern swing, which is not obvious at the moment, to initiate further WAA in the beginning of July. Not unknown of course

sorry for my lazy post earlier, i should have cited the 8-14 day chart which doesnt bare much simularity to the previous one, nor does it appear to me to follow on from the 6-10 day chart youve posted smoothely. whilst i dont expect the 6-10 day chart to change much i am looking towards the 8-14 day chart for hints of a change, but a plausible one... hey just my tuppence worth, im not expert.

 

[bluearmy]

Just a heads up that a few gefs members are bringing a hurricane/ex TS into the Atlantic basin in a couple weeks time.  Could ruffle a few feathers if it verifies. 

 

[johnholmes]

An early start to model chaos then ba, if it does as predicted; they are notorious as I've commented several times for upsetting all models.

[Summer Sun]

NMM and Arpege are very different in how they handle Wednesday's rain...

[DTHFCJ]

the only chink of light i can find is one run hits over 30c!

gonna happen surely   

[northwestsnow]

Frankly, the models/ outlook is vile, esp the further north and west ones travels, there just seems to be no escape from the Atlantic.

Really hoping for an improvement as we move through July as the next 10 days look more like Autumn than high summer..

[Frosty.]

24 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Frankly, the models/ outlook is vile, esp the further north and west ones travels, there just seems to be no escape from the Atlantic.

Really hoping for an improvement as we move through July as the next 10 days look more like Autumn than high summer..

Agreed, it looks like we are becoming locked into a changeable / unsettled pattern for the foreseeable future with temperatures generally on the cool side but still with some warmer days at times across the south.

Edited June 26, 2017 by Frosty.

[Scorcher]

42 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Frankly, the models/ outlook is vile, esp the further north and west ones travels, there just seems to be no escape from the Atlantic.

Really hoping for an improvement as we move through July as the next 10 days look more like Autumn than high summer..

I think 'vile' is far too strong a word- it is massively overused in these forums.

Until I see April 2012 style charts being shown with lows crashing right through us constantly I don't see how that sort of hyperbole can be justified.

There are some dry days on offer still- today was more than reasonable in Oldham and actually quite warm feeling. 19C is not a temperature I consider typically autumnal.

Edited June 26, 2017 by Scorcher

[northwestsnow]

13 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

I think 'vile' is far too strong a word- it is massively overused in these forums.

Until I see April 2012 style charts being shown with lows crashing right through us constantly I don't see how that sort of hyperbole can be justified.

There are some dry days on offer still- today was more than reasonable in Oldham and actually quite warm feeling. 19C is not a temperature I consider typically autumnal.

Sorry i meant after today scorcher

Well i suppose its all about opinions, this week is 14/15 deg these parts and lots of rain,im not sure how else to describe that for late June?Anyway,like i said, fingers crossed for some improvements in July

[damianslaw]

Models all showing unsettled conditions for the foreseeable, quite different to recent conditions, with the atlantic longwave trough becoming the dominant player, and a deep feature also, drawn across the country as the jetstream sinks south. End result, quite disappointing for late June - early July, not very inspiring with rain for all, heaviest and most persistant in the north west, temps average at very best, cooler than average further west and north with very limited sunshine.. The heat of last week already becoming a distant memory.. our best summers have come courtesy of strong heights over the country, southerly plumes are notorious for being shortlived affairs- need a breakaway azores ridge to do the trick.. plenty of time yet, but I do the northern hemisphere settles into its base summer state now, and the ease in which last weeks heat was cast aside, is not a very good omen..

[TJS1998Tom]

1 minute ago, damianslaw said:

Models all showing unsettled conditions for the foreseeable, quite different to recent conditions, with the atlantic longwave trough becoming the dominant player, and a deep feature also, drawn across the country as the jetstream sinks south. End result, quite disappointing for late June - early July, not very inspiring with rain for all, heaviest and most persistant in the north west, temps average at very best, cooler than average further west and north with very limited sunshine.. The heat of last week already becoming a distant memory.. our best summers have come courtesy of strong heights over the country, southerly plumes are notorious for being shortlived affairs- need a breakaway azores ridge to do the trick.. plenty of time yet, but I do the northern hemisphere settles into its base summer state now, and the ease in which last weeks heat was cast aside, is not a very good omen..

We may end up getting a repeat of June where the first half started out quite poor, but then from week 3 the temperatures began to heat up a bit

[I remember Atlantic 252]

3 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Models all showing unsettled conditions for the foreseeable, quite different to recent conditions, with the atlantic longwave trough becoming the dominant player, and a deep feature also, drawn across the country as the jetstream sinks south. End result, quite disappointing for late June - early July, not very inspiring with rain for all, heaviest and most persistant in the north west, temps average at very best, cooler than average further west and north with very limited sunshine.. The heat of last week already becoming a distant memory.. our best summers have come courtesy of strong heights over the country, southerly plumes are notorious for being shortlived affairs- need a breakaway azores ridge to do the trick.. plenty of time yet, but I do the northern hemisphere settles into its base summer state now, and the ease in which last weeks heat was cast aside, is not a very good omen..

Ay, Damian, court coverers may be busy this year, by the models, another middle Sunday with play possible?

[damianslaw]

6 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Ay, Damian, court coverers may be busy this year, by the models, another middle Sunday with play possible?

Sorry to go off topic.. but yes Wimbledon could see a wet start, its very late this year isn't it, usually last week of June, first week of July, there probably grateful its been put back a week, as the start of next week looks fairly changeable at this range..

[I remember Atlantic 252]

1 minute ago, damianslaw said:

Sorry to go off topic.. but yes Wimbledon could see a wet start, its very late this year isn't it, usually last week of June, first week of July, there probably grateful its been put back a week, as the start of next week looks fairly changeable at this range..

Yes, latest on record, they've made it later to give players an extra week to prepare, or rest, after the clay season, could be weather affected more though, July, I find wetter/more westerly than June