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Model Output Discussions 12z 01/06/2017


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Posted
  • Location: Helensburgh,22 miles from Glasgow
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,snow and....a bit more snow
  • Location: Helensburgh,22 miles from Glasgow
    50 minutes ago, SizzlingHeat said:

    12z shows atrocious weather from the end of the weekend right throughout next week. Low pressure centred bang over the UK with lots of rain, wind and cool temperatures for the time of year. A southerly tracking jet responsible for these abysmal conditions. Slow improvement into the following weekend but nothing particularly summer like at all for the foreseeable. 

     

    Please frosty, can you stop saying how good things are going to get blah blah blah nice and warm in the south East blah blah. The fact is that all major charts are not showing this and your posts really are entirely mis leading for those that rely heavily on people here with knowledge on how the weather is likely to unfold.

    'rain mostly in North and West is utter rubbish. Next week looks appalling for all of the UK with below average temps, above average rain and high winds at time. Please stop trying to put a positive spin on dreary charts because those that dont know about the weather in detail will interpret your posts in a way that is not correct. 

     

    I will no doubt get slated for being so pessimistic but this is the model thread and this is what the models are show across the board. Even the 7-10 day ECP show no sign of summer and is just as bas as gfs from next week. We may get a pattern change again mid July but in my opinion this spell of weather will be the best we will get all summer which is a shame.

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    Considering some areas have had the hottest June temps since 1976 then perhaps you'll be right..... Perhaps this will have been the best spell of weather we get this Summer.......not sure whether we can really predict the rest of Summer on the Summer Solstice though.

    Anyhow, some of us are still waiting for a decent spell of summer weather.

     

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    An unseasonally wet, cool and windy day amidst an underwhelming week of weather does not a summer make. Much as anticipated through the second half of Spring, the hand-over to Summer sees the atm

    There have been some strange observations made today, as too often occurs in this thread whatever the time of year, and largely based on the usual knee-jerk response to longer term suggested NWP.

    You always seem to jump in on my posts, along with a few others. Why don't you try giving your assessment of the models instead of picking holes in others efforts!

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Staines, UK or Prague, Czech Republic
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and sunny, thunderstorms, snow, fog, frost, squall lines
  • Location: Staines, UK or Prague, Czech Republic
    30 minutes ago, SizzlingHeat said:

    Looks like a lot of outdoor events are going to be truly rained off next week. Cant see a way out either... Reminds me of 2012! Things may change in a few weeks but until then... Time to dust off those umbrellas.

    Oh and the ECM 850hpa charts on meteociel are so unbelievably mis leading too. Yes, the upper air temps of 0-10 degrees are yellow and orange (what you would associate with warmth) are not representative. Look at the ECM rain forecast, tie that in with the 850s you certainly wont be saying mid twenties... So mis leading. Mid to high teens at best.

    Looks like a week or so of Atlantic crap to endure after the weekend, yes, but it isn't like truly dire 2012. We've just had a week of beautiful weather and the hottest June day for decades. This time next week (or even sooner) we may be seeing much better charts. Calm down.

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    Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
    24 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

    Excuse me but I'm only saying its not as bad as some are making out, it's not a cool unsettled washout! 

    Plus I haven't even commented on the 12z yet.

    Could you elaborate on that because I haven't seen anyone saying that. In fact the only person who has repeatable used the expression "cool unsettled washout" is you when you put your inevitable spin on your posts. And it might help if you removed Mystic Meg from speed dial as there aren't many of us who can forecast thundery weather in July.

    Edited by knocker
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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Anything out of the ordinary!
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    ECM cooks up a nice North Sea low by 192 hours, bringning a nice arctic northerly, a keen wind, and 850s of 0-4c.

    Perfect for high summer!

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    Posted
  • Location: Crymych, Pembrokeshire. 150m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes of all kinds...
  • Location: Crymych, Pembrokeshire. 150m asl

    This short action film from the ECM (warning!  No sex or violence...) clearly indicates that the warm/hot upper air will be pushed far away to the south and east over the next ten days and colder North Atlantic air is soon knocking on our door:

    image.thumb.gif.69014e862f365827a6f7929451867724.gif

    My admittedly limited knowledge of these charts interprets this to mean that many areas will experience below average temperatures for the rest of this month.  However, we will soon be looking at reliable charts for July which may well bring more memorable summer weather.

     

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Anything out of the ordinary!
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    The ECM 240 has a flicker of hope with the Azores high trying to nose in again....but a long, long way off at present.

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    Posted
  • Location: Crawley
  • Location: Crawley
    19 minutes ago, Sky Full said:

    This short action film from the ECM (warning!  No sex or violence...) clearly indicates that the warm/hot upper air will be pushed far away to the south and east over the next ten days and colder North Atlantic air is soon knocking on our door:

    image.thumb.gif.69014e862f365827a6f7929451867724.gif

    My admittedly limited knowledge of these charts interprets this to mean that many areas will experience below average temperatures for the rest of this month.  However, we will soon be looking at reliable charts for July which may well bring more memorable summer weather.

     

     

    Edited by snowy weather
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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    Well..I think more runs are needed, the Ecm 12z looks nothing like the 00z for early / mid next week.:D

    Edited by Frosty.
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    Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

    Temps will remain slightly above average in the far south and the Southeast through Saturday by the looks of things but elsewhere it does look average at best and generally below in the west.

    Rukm1201.gif  Recm1201.gif 12_120_mslp500.png?cb=670

    Anyway looking ahead to the start of next week, I'm not sure how it is that UKMO continues to see that shallow low crossing the Atlantic being not just weaker but so much slower-moving than all of the other models, but it sure does keep the uncertainty nice and high (sarcasm alert).

    If for now we assume the big coming together of lows over the UK will actually feature next week, then at least a glimmer of hope has emerged in the charts for next weekend, albeit only just in the case of the slower GFS;

    Recm2161.gif  Recm2401.gif

    Rtavn2401.gif  Rtavn2641.gif

    This may seem like a major case of clutching at straws but I've been watching the atmospheric angular momentum projections adjust over the past couple of days in ways that may result in an opportunity to at least interrupt the cooler and more unsettled period of weather, so it makes sense to see the models bringing the Azores High back toward the UK again. Too early to say if this could be a full move away from the La Nina-like tendency that brings the troubles next week; GFS does not look at all keen on that idea but ECM looks a little more hopeful.

    Regardless, if one is hoping for the complex low next week to have as little impact as possible, best hope it scoots through as fast as possible, as stalling it west of the UK looks a major long-shot as of this evening (but Man With Beard's line of thought does remain alive).

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
    11 minutes ago, knocker said:

    The ecm cool plunge :shok: If it was winter the defibrillators would be on standby

    ecm_t850a_5d_natl_11.thumb.png.c0dd9ad43f6cee7d0e13507a1bb4c18b.png

    If it was winter it wouldn't verify but in summer..it just might:D:whistling:

    Edited by Frosty.
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    Posted
  • Location: Hampton, Evesham, Worcestershire. 27m asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme and Exciting weather, hate stratus clouds and drizzile
  • Location: Hampton, Evesham, Worcestershire. 27m asl.

    Evening All .A massive change in the days ahead from Mediterranean weather to a full blown north Atlantic weather. Not that unusual for the UK,  you often find for example after a very cold spell in winter it gets very mild thereafter.  Hence hot to cold formula , or the other way round it works and always has done in the uk:rofl:

    h850t850eu-1.png

    ecmt850.144-1.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

    Models all showing a marked change from tomorrow onwards, with the current ridge quickly cast aside by what appears to be quite an active atlantic - not a very good omen it has to be said, given this is the period when the northern hemispheric base summer state sets in... we could be in for quite an unusual summer, with robust deep longwave trough action interspersed with southern plumes and strong azores ridging, with wildly different conditions in 10 day periods.. thanks to a highly amplified pattern, not sure we shall see.

    We've had two very good spells so far this summer season, end May and now mid June, first half of May wasn't bad either. My hunch was for June to always produce the best the weather had to offer this summer, 7 days with somewhere hitting 30 degrees, is a tall order in any summer.

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    Posted
  • Location: Winchester, Hampshire ~ Southern Central!
  • Location: Winchester, Hampshire ~ Southern Central!
    3 hours ago, Ed Stone said:

    36C, 97F, sometime in early July, at Southampton, methinks? 

    We hit 35c in Winchester in 2006

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    Tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean supports a much cooler unsettled spell developing next week.:)

     

     

    ECMAVGEU12_168_1.png

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    Edited by Frosty.
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    Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

    I'm afraid there is nothing about this morning's gfs that contradicts the change to cooler unsettled weather that has been sign posted for some days now.

    Starting this evening as the upper low, currently between Greenland and Iceland, tracks east and surface features impact Scotland.This movement continues and by 00z Sunday the low is just north of Scotland which is under a showery regime in a strong WNW wind. This will also affect northern England but further south ridging from the Azores more influential so drier but temps now nearer average.

    gfs_z500a_natl_13.thumb.png.a470642d29ea05a8a6f90ac5851db2da.pnggfs_ptype_slp_eur3_13.thumb.png.ac291bda8bfc0cd39425dccb45b0d5b6.png

    What follows is not exactly straight forward. The Atlantic plays a key role but not in the way one would normally expect. The next trough quickly arrives from the west and forms a large complex slow moving low pressure area in the vicinity of the UK. Essentially it gets cut off from points west as high pressure builds in the western Atlantic which reinforces the jet but also tracks it north east along the eastern seaboard and then south east over southern France/norther Iberia.

    gfs_ptype_slp_eur3_23.thumb.png.a55af355deea9eaa7c5b9319f91eac2a.pnggfs_uv250_natl_26.thumb.png.3f23e2d61cf89979922a400387881cfa.png

    The whole pattern moves slowly east with the jet swinging south west of the UK and then strongly east over central Europe. Ans the low moves into the North Sea the surface wind will veer northerly and temps fall below average.

    gfs_ptype_slp_eur3_36.thumb.png.f60c5aa7191d94dc9191b799ebebb979.png

    So what about the weather. Pretty much a N/S split this weekend with Scotland bearing the brunt but from Monday becoming generally more unsettled but I've absolutely no idea vis specifics so will just leave it there. Temps around average but falling below towards the end of the week.

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    Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

    Although the ecm is tending to end up more or less the same as the gfs it takes a different rout to get there.

    Mast noticeable it runs the next system further south and by 12z Monday it's over the Bristol Channel with the rain impacting the south west. Twelve hours later it has phased with the Iberian low so a general area of low pressure with apparent instability stretching from England/Wales down to southern France. By 00z Wednesday the low and inclement weather are over the low countries with the UK in a transient cool north easterly. Obviously the details still need sorting.

    ecm_mslp_uv850_natl_6.thumb.png.0cf783e52e69cc2f5ac56af62a80d544.pngecm_mslp_uv850_natl_7.thumb.png.d6980880f4184150cef674a4e6df9a7e.png

     

    Edited by knocker
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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Anything out of the ordinary!
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    Yes, not much to chirp about this morning. Looking unsettled into July, for sure.

    gefsens850london0.png

    There is a definite ensemble trend to warmer and drier by the end of the run, with only a couple of runs below 5c, rather than the bulk being around that mark in a weeks time.

    For those of you looking for some heat relief - you are in luck! It's on the way.

    Rmgfs144sum.gif

    Looking wet in the NW, and also down the eastern half of the UK, with a drier slice through the spine.

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
    20 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

    Yes, not much to chirp about this morning. Looking unsettled into July, for sure.

    gefsens850london0.png

    There is a definite ensemble trend to warmer and drier by the end of the run, with only a couple of runs below 5c, rather than the bulk being around that mark in a weeks time.

    For those of you looking for some heat relief - you are in luck! It's on the way.

    Rmgfs144sum.gif

    Looking wet in the NW, and also down the eastern half of the UK, with a drier slice through the spine.

    Aye it looks like a cool unsettled washout for sure:whistling:

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    Very autumnal looking outlook from the latest models with spells of wet and windy weather and generally below average temps..that should keep my critics happy!:D

    Edited by Frosty.
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    Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk

    From what I'm seeing I agree with frosty. 

    Although we need to see what developments we get over the weekend. 

    I wouldn't say it's a true monsoon wash out pretty average. 

    But plenty of summer left I'd be more inclined to think the Atlantic is not awfully active. 

    But of course this could change 

     

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