Jump to content
Cold?
Local
Radar
Snow?

Model Output Discussions 12z 01/06/2017


Recommended Posts

Spotted a post you think may be an issue? Please help the team by reporting it.
  • Replies 3k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Posts

An unseasonally wet, cool and windy day amidst an underwhelming week of weather does not a summer make. Much as anticipated through the second half of Spring, the hand-over to Summer sees the atm

There have been some strange observations made today, as too often occurs in this thread whatever the time of year, and largely based on the usual knee-jerk response to longer term suggested NWP.

You always seem to jump in on my posts, along with a few others. Why don't you try giving your assessment of the models instead of picking holes in others efforts!

Posted Images

Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

    The anomaly charts do not suggest any further heat in the 6-15 day period. Not totally consistent but enough to see that any hopes of a quick repeat of the past week are unlikely in the period mentioned.

    links below

    http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

    http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

    All 3 shows a trough dominated pattern for the UK with air sourced from quite a northerly area for the country. It does look quite unsettled but obviously one can expect an occasional break with 24-48 hours or so of more settled weather.

    Of course once we get into the Tropical Storm period then any of these getting into the N Atlantic quite often do upset all computer models of whatever length of prediction. So yet another layer of uncertainty can be added when this occurs.

     

    • Like 7
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    An absolute scorcher today with 34c 93f very likely around late afternoon in the south / south-east..gorgeous!

    BIG Thunderstorms  breaking out and tomorrow according to my weather app will still reach 28c across the southeast..the hottest summer solstice on record is today!:shok:

    A number of records could go today:D

    DC0n5OlXYAEkId3.jpg

    • Like 5
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    Arpege looks pretty close for those temps we have already passed 25c on the south coast

    9_uk2mtmp.png

    It still thinks the record will go in the Bristol area with 36c on the cards

    15_uk2mtmp.png

    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

    Could well see some thundery activity central/lowland Scotland today and n. England

    500vort_d02_14.thumb.png.aae66608ad7e37bfe3849ec80465edd3.png500vort_d02_18.thumb.png.d99e823e4ddb64af704051d57b89f51c.pnglpiswaths_d02_16.thumb.png.8ce0929dd305c11eea7194f3e2977d21.png

    Edited by knocker
    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Bedworth
  • Weather Preferences: No Extremes Of Any Kind
  • Location: Bedworth
    21 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

    Arpege looks pretty close for those temps we have already passed 25c on the south coast

    9_uk2mtmp.png

    It still thinks the record will go in the Bristol area with 36c on the cards

    15_uk2mtmp.png

    according to the windows 10 weather app it's 18c for me at the moment , of course I don't know the reliabity of this so take with caution

    Edited by Gordon Webb
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Anything out of the ordinary!
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    Ensembles not painting a pretty picture this morning (as expected):

    gefsens850london0.png

    Plenty of rainfall as we enter next week and move into July, with unusually tight clustering discounting any heat until well into the first week.

    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    Temperature wise, the Ecm 00z generally indicates low 20's celsius across southern uk and occasionally very warm into the mid / upper 20's c until late in the run..so..not a cool unsettled washout by any means!

    in the meantime, enjoy the glorious heat today:D

    0_mslp850uk.png

    24_mslp850uk.png

    48_mslp850uk.png

    72_mslp850uk.png

    96_mslp850uk.png

    120_mslp850uk.png

    144_mslp850uk.png

    168_mslp850uk.png

    192_mslp850uk.png

    Edited by Frosty.
    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Nr. Tunbridge Wells (150m/450ft asl)
  • Location: Nr. Tunbridge Wells (150m/450ft asl)

    GFS 06z looks good to me for the next week, for the South at least... Surely if that comes off we're looking at above average temps, a chance of thunderstorms early in the week, and sunshine and showers over the next days?

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
    4 hours ago, johnholmes said:

    The anomaly charts do not suggest any further heat in the 6-15 day period. Not totally consistent but enough to see that any hopes of a quick repeat of the past week are unlikely in the period mentioned.

    links below

    http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

    http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

    All 3 shows a trough dominated pattern for the UK with air sourced from quite a northerly area for the country. It does look quite unsettled but obviously one can expect an occasional break with 24-48 hours or so of more settled weather.

    Of course once we get into the Tropical Storm period then any of these getting into the N Atlantic quite often do upset all computer models of whatever length of prediction. So yet another layer of uncertainty can be added when this occurs.

     

    ay john, but ive been keeping an eye on the height anomaly that over the past few days has drifted eastwards out the states seen now as the azores high. but the current noaa charts suggest an eastward progress of that height anomaly, just flick between the two. imho, and for what its worth, that is consistent with the longwave pattern we have had since early may at least. the current gfs in deep fi also builds this azores feature across us. whilst i know theres no reload in the next 10-14 days, im expecting one by mid july. and as ive kept saying - it would be highly unusual to get no more heat after 2 hot spells in june. i dont believe this is it, i do believe history would suggest its more likely to get more then get none..... but hey, theres no guarantee..

    • Like 3
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    I don't see any reason for doom and gloom with the outlook, it still looks warm / very warm and humid at times, especially further south and east with some fine spells too..certainly not a cool unsettled washout, the coolest and most unsettled conditions tending to be more across NW Britain.

    Looking ahead to july, I have a real sense of optimism that we will have further very warm / hot spells with plenty of sunshine and a risk of thundery outbreaks..speaking of thunder, there looks like being some severe T-Storms later today, tonight and tomorrow morning in response to extreme heat and humidity today.

    Edited by Frosty.
    • Like 6
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

    You have to ask yourself - just how many times is the pattern going to stall? On the GFS 06Z, the Atlantic stalls sufficiently to bring another hot day to the SE next Tuesday, upper 20Cs to be expected again if this verifies

    gfs-1-156.png?6 gfs-0-150.png?6 156-582.GIF?21-6

    Difficult to see a way out of what follows though:

    gfs-0-192.png?6  ECM1-192.GIF?21-12

    A serious shock to the system particularly for SW Europe, where temps have been pushing 40C on a daily basis.

    Back in the present, up to 32C at Heathrow right now - we'll never know how hot it will get in N Somerset (where ARGEPE has its 36C) because we have no official station there :(

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Bedworth
  • Weather Preferences: No Extremes Of Any Kind
  • Location: Bedworth
    16 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

    You have to ask yourself - just how many times is the pattern going to stall? On the GFS 06Z, the Atlantic stalls sufficiently to bring another hot day to the SE next Tuesday, upper 20Cs to be expected again if this verifies

    gfs-1-156.png?6 gfs-0-150.png?6 156-582.GIF?21-6

    Difficult to see a way out of what follows though:

    gfs-0-192.png?6  ECM1-192.GIF?21-12

    A serious shock to the system particularly for SW Europe, where temps have been pushing 40C on a daily basis.

    Back in the present, up to 32C at Heathrow right now - we'll never know how hot it will get in N Somerset (where ARGEPE has its 36C) because we have no official station there :(

    compared to the recent weather in England And Wales that might be a shock here too , not so much for Scotland and NI

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Aylesbury, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Cold & Snowy, Summer: Just not hot
  • Location: Aylesbury, Buckinghamshire

    Just hidden numerous posts from several people. This is the model thread, there are relevant threads to discuss weather apps and current conditions. Please remain on topic for the benefit of other users.

    Thanks.

    • Like 6
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    Looking at the GEFS 6z mean, beyond this wonderful hot spell it looks more changeable and cooler across the uk, more so further northwest with some fine and warmer / humid spells further s / e / se. The mid range looks generally cooler and more trough dominated but thereafter there are signs that the azores high gradually becomes more influential again, at least across southern uk.

    Edited by Frosty.
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

    Feels much better here today mainly as we would appear to have generated quite a good sea breeze from the S/SE up to around 15kts. Possibly augmented by the terrain the SE but more detail would be required to verify that.The midday sounding is quite interesting and shows a very warm airmass , 20.6C at 850mb so surface temps away from boundary layer modifications may be quite interesting. As it is here we have deep 100mb inversion.

    2017062112.03808.skewt_parc.thumb.gif.9a7d78aa0454ed0aa93364609fa9b712.gif

    Edited by knocker
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    It's officially the hottest June day for over forty years with 33.9c recorded at Heathrow but there have already been some thunderstorms across the NE..more to come! Although the models show a change from tomorrow, it still looks very warm for the south-east on thursday and there is still some fine and warm weather indicated at times, especially for the s / se, most unsettled / coolest across the NW:)

    DC134bDXYAAfIYa.jpg

    DC1YUiwWsAAOTrg.jpg

    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Bedworth
  • Weather Preferences: No Extremes Of Any Kind
  • Location: Bedworth
    9 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

    It's officially the hottest June day for over forty years with 33.9c recorded at Heathrow but there have already been some thunderstorms across the NE..more to come! Although the models show a change from tomorrow, it still looks very warm for the south-east on thursday and there is still some fine and warm weather indicated at times, especially for the s / se, most unsettled / coolest across the NW:)

    DC134bDXYAAfIYa.jpg

    DC1YUiwWsAAOTrg.jpg

    not surprised to see storms up there , Northern and Eastern England was the main focal point

    Edited by Gordon Webb
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

    After the cool north westerly plunge on Sunday as the depression skirts Scotland it may be worth keeping an eye on the next low as it phases with the Iberian low and forms an interesting little duet.

    gfs_ptype_slp_eur3_17.thumb.png.69c268f75f1a0b495b3dc26dc2cc9b9c.pnggfs_ptype_slp_eur3_24.thumb.png.62d45b7feaa636f02d3a417be5ac7029.png

    Edited by knocker
    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Oakdale, Poole in Dorset
  • Location: Oakdale, Poole in Dorset

    12z shows atrocious weather from the end of the weekend right throughout next week. Low pressure centred bang over the UK with lots of rain, wind and cool temperatures for the time of year. A southerly tracking jet responsible for these abysmal conditions. Slow improvement into the following weekend but nothing particularly summer like at all for the foreseeable. 

     

    Please frosty, can you stop saying how good things are going to get blah blah blah nice and warm in the south East blah blah. The fact is that all major charts are not showing this and your posts really are entirely mis leading for those that rely heavily on people here with knowledge on how the weather is likely to unfold.

    'rain mostly in North and West is utter rubbish. Next week looks appalling for all of the UK with below average temps, above average rain and high winds at time. Please stop trying to put a positive spin on dreary charts because those that dont know about the weather in detail will interpret your posts in a way that is not correct. 

     

    I will no doubt get slated for being so pessimistic but this is the model thread and this is what the models are show across the board. Even the 7-10 day ECP show no sign of summer and is just as bas as gfs from next week. We may get a pattern change again mid July but in my opinion this spell of weather will be the best we will get all summer which is a shame.

    Screenshot_20170621-181756.png

    Screenshot_20170621-181805.png

    Screenshot_20170621-181818.png

    Screenshot_20170621-181830.png

    Screenshot_20170621-181837.png

    Screenshot_20170621-181849.png

    Screenshot_20170621-181921.png

    Screenshot_20170621-181941.png

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Oakdale, Poole in Dorset
  • Location: Oakdale, Poole in Dorset
    12 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

    Agree, organizers lucky they've put Wimbledon back a week, those charts look like it would be rained off

    Looks like a lot of outdoor events are going to be truly rained off next week. Cant see a way out either... Reminds me of 2012! Things may change in a few weeks but until then... Time to dust off those umbrellas.

    Oh and the ECM 850hpa charts on meteociel are so unbelievably mis leading too. Yes, the upper air temps of 0-10 degrees are yellow and orange (what you would associate with warmth) are not representative. Look at the ECM rain forecast, tie that in with the 850s you certainly wont be saying mid twenties... So mis leading. Mid to high teens at best.

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Monaghan, Ireland.
  • Location: Monaghan, Ireland.

    A lot of talk in the media of the Summer of 76, what were the highest temperatures during that Summer?

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
    Just now, markyo said:

    well said,some folk don't half talk dribble. Your post's are always welcome...at lot of others haven't your experience,please continue,many look forward to a informed view!:)

    Thanks, I don't appreciate it when my posts are twisted into something they are not, cheers markyo.:)

    • Like 4
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
    7 minutes ago, 049balt said:

    A lot of talk in the media of the Summer of 76, what were the highest temperatures during that Summer?

    36C, 97F, sometime in early July, at Southampton, methinks? 

    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Anything out of the ordinary!
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
    6 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

    36C, 97F, sometime in early July, at Southampton, methinks? 

    35.9c, 3rd July, Cheltenham :)

    Who knows where 2017 will end up...but it's got off to a blinding start! Ok the next 7-14 days look pretty poor, but this hot spell appeared from the abyss, what's to say another won't!

    • Like 5
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Guest
    This topic is now closed to further replies.
    ×
    ×
    • Create New...