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Model Output Discussions 12z 01/06/2017


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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
    13 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

    possible, the longwave pattern of ridging and troughing would suggest the next ridging will be in early july. until then we will be dominated/driven by a mean upper trough to our north, as knockers post above highlights.


    edit....ive just seen glacier points post in serious thread... i did write this before id read his post, and i had mentioned this previously. i just didnt want to be thought of as copying him..

    The EC46 means update this morning is low pressure dominated, particularly over the Arctic until certainly the 10th July. Thus we are looking at the Atlantic trough remaining the most influential with temps below average, perhaps significantly, so at the beginning of July.

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    An unseasonally wet, cool and windy day amidst an underwhelming week of weather does not a summer make. Much as anticipated through the second half of Spring, the hand-over to Summer sees the atm

    There have been some strange observations made today, as too often occurs in this thread whatever the time of year, and largely based on the usual knee-jerk response to longer term suggested NWP.

    You always seem to jump in on my posts, along with a few others. Why don't you try giving your assessment of the models instead of picking holes in others efforts!

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
    9 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

    That should please all the moaners who don't like this very summery spell..sad

    Yes sounds totally un -inspiring and a waste of high Summer. Plenty of time for wet and windy weather in Autumn/Winter & Spring :nonono:

    Even though I'm sneezing constantly with Hay fever & and getting very little sleep due to the heat, I would still take this weather over what the EC46 is saying any day of the week. Small price to pay for this glorious Summer weather.

    Edited by SteveB
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    Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

    The ecm is not dissimilar to the gfs. It has trial run taking a front across the country on Monday before the main depression arrives west of Ireland mid week

    ecm_mslp_uv850_natl_7.thumb.png.2920dbdc118e6c862c5d0c1df6ce5970.pngecm_mslp_uv850_natl_9.thumb.png.2db91d04d478406ec0722e9fe9544815.png

    Edited by knocker
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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    In the meantime, high summer goes on..bliss:D

    DCvojHVXcAAu-t_.jpg

    24_mslp500.png

    24_mslp850uk.png

    48_mslp850.png

    48_mslp850uk.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    Tomorrow is still going to be recording breaking according to arpege with 37c/98f on the way easily beating the 1976 record

    arpegeuk-31-42-0.thumb.png.f7ba80bd387acd3893d2f65a6bda1b78.png5948d31560c56_DCvqSWgXsAA6nBm.jpglarge.thumb.jpeg.765c1dd1d8d3eca7c6355976f154d62e.jpeg

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    Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
    53 minutes ago, SteveB said:

    Yes sounds totally un -inspiring and a waste of high Summer. Plenty of time for wet and windy weather in Autumn/Winter & Spring :nonono:

    Even though I'm sneezing constantly with Hay fever & and getting very little sleep due to the heat, I would still take this weather over what the EC46 is saying any day of the week. Small price to pay for this glorious Summer weather.

    Sometimes people are inclined to bring their own interpretation to a general comment on the EC46 means. I posted a general interpretation of the long wave pattern which within the stated time frame was mainly influenced by the Atlantic trough. This is forecast to ease as as we move further into July and the Azores HP becomes more prominent. No attempt was made vis detail but given this I consider wet and windy for any length of time unlikely. But that is just my opinion of course.

    Also given this I think it probably wise not to comment on the EC46 output in future.

    Edited by knocker
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    Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
    26 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

    Tomorrow is still going to be recording breaking according to arpege with 37c/98f on the way easily beating the 1976 record

    arpegeuk-31-42-0.thumb.png.f7ba80bd387acd3893d2f65a6bda1b78.png5948d31560c56_DCvqSWgXsAA6nBm.jpglarge.thumb.jpeg.765c1dd1d8d3eca7c6355976f154d62e.jpeg

    Kinda reminds me of the last 2 summers, midweek plume, then fresher for all areas on a Thursday

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Anything out of the ordinary!
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    ARPEGE must really like the Bristol area! :D It's been hammering home mid thirties there for the last couple of days. I will tip my hat if it is anything close to 36/37c...that's in the realms of all time UK records! Would certainly be in the top 10 yearly hottest recorded days (with thanks to Trevor Harley):

    2003 38.5 Brogdale, near Faversham (Kent)
    1990 37.1 Cheltenham 3 Aug
    2015 36.7 Heathrow 1 July
    1911 36.7 Raunds, Canterbury 9 August
    2006 36.5 Wisley (Surrey) 19 July
    1932 36.1 London (several sites, inc. Camden), Tottenham, Halstead 19 August
    1976 35.9 Cheltenham 3 July

    Edited by mb018538
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    Posted
  • Location: Bedworth
  • Weather Preferences: No Extremes Of Any Kind
  • Location: Bedworth
    7 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

    ARPEGE must really like the Bristol area! :D It's been hammering home mid thirties there for the last couple of days. I will tip my hat if it is anything close to 36/37c...that's in the realms of all time UK records! Would certainly be in the top 10 yearly hottest recorded days (with thanks to Trevor Harley):

    2003 38.5 Brogdale, near Faversham (Kent)
    1990 37.1 Cheltenham 3 Aug
    2015 36.7 Heathrow 1 July
    1911 36.7 Raunds, Canterbury 9 August
    2006 36.5 Wisley (Surrey) 19 July
    1932 36.1 London (several sites, inc. Camden), Tottenham, Halstead 19 August
    1976 35.9 Cheltenham 3 July

    and also one of the few outside the SE if it occurs

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    Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
    1 hour ago, Summer Sun said:

    Tomorrow is still going to be recording breaking according to arpege with 37c/98f on the way easily beating the 1976 record

    arpegeuk-31-42-0.thumb.png.f7ba80bd387acd3893d2f65a6bda1b78.png5948d31560c56_DCvqSWgXsAA6nBm.jpglarge.thumb.jpeg.765c1dd1d8d3eca7c6355976f154d62e.jpeg

    Going to be interesting following this. It does feel as if the ARGEPE has a bit of a love-in for the Bristol area, but to be fair, yesterday it forecast 33C in that area and it nearly got it right, with 31C/32C officially being reached all through that part of the Severn valley, and 31C even on the N Devon coast which I think ARGEPE was the only one that got close with. So even if it falls 2C short tomorrow, that's still an incredible 35C.

    Some other forecasts for comparison

    EURO4: this was 3C too low on the same chart yesterday, so suggests 34C/35C could be reached

    17062118_2000.gif

    AROME: 34C in the SE but not as hot in the SW

    arome-31-42-0.png?20-07

    GFS: This model was 5C too low yesterday (apart from in Dorset/Somerset/Wiltshire where it was 2C too low). Again, applying the same correction, it is suggestive of 34/35C, since the darker colour is 30C

    39-582UK.GIF?20-0

    So general consensus is 34C-35C for Wednesday. Not far off that June record at all.

    Thursday not a done deal according to the ARGEPE either. 36C in Great Yarmouth??

    arpegeuk-31-66-0.png?20-06

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Anything out of the ordinary!
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
    5 minutes ago, knocker said:

    The EPS 6-10 pattern

    ecm_eps_z500a_5d_nh_11.thumb.png.c2318359d54a6af2d9f9170353dbe04a.pngecm_eps_t850a_5d_nh_11.thumb.png.b0ad1f5c34906453fcee881d369654aa.png

    Thanks knocker. Doesn't look too great - quite unusual to have a massive trough dominating the eastern USA and all of the N Atlantic. We're also going from quite a weak jet profile to something much stronger, and more E-W orientated:

    Rtavn0015.gifRtavn19215.gif

    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?cone#contents

    Tropical
    developments In the GOM may stir things up slightly....though it isn't going to make hurricane strength, it will still inject heat and moisture into the south of the USA, and effect things downstream a week after.

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    Posted
  • Location: Salzburger Sportwelt Lungau/ Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Salzburger Sportwelt Lungau/ Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
    14 hours ago, Singularity said:

    I found myself going all jittery looking at what ARPEGE gets up to... interesting how the hottest spot starts a little way down the coast from Bristol and then migrates north, like some kin dof freakish 'pressure cooker' zone where local convergence is occurring while somehow avoiding the creation of cloud cover. Not sure I can see the CAP being so strong and the airmass so dry as to permit that... right? :shok:

    Even so, given that the slightly faster progression of events now brings the 20*C 850 hPa isotherm up to the far-SW by Wednesday evening and that this is following four days of increasingly high temps for a large part of the southwest region, I'd not be that surprised to see the mid-30s crop up somewhere in said region.

    It'll then be one more uncomfortable night before the freshening up occurs at some point on Thursday. Interesting that while GFS performs this early on, ARPEGE takes until mid-morning for CS England and late morning for the SE. The former then manages to get into the mid-20s anyway thanks to the warm start (the boundary does not look all that strong in temps of temp changes at the surface on this model run) while the SE sneaks in the high-20s in the late morning and then, after a dip due to some showery rain, rebounds toward that again by late afternoon. This could be a bit optimistic but it goes to show that Thursday is not looking like a straight forward changeover to fresh Atlantic weather.

    Allowing again for over-optimism from the model, the weakness of that boundary may even allow Friday to bring further respectably high temps;

    arpegeuk-41-101-0.png?19-19

    ECM appears similar enough that this option is at least on the table rather than the chair, but GFS and UKMO both make more of Thursday's boundary and so restrict temps to the mid-20s at best. So it remains unclear just how much we'll be cooling down Thu-Fri.

     

    Briefly on the weekend onward, well there's so little consistency between models that it all seems very much up in the air (thankfully, given GFS' nightmarish ideas for several runs now). It has not escaped my attention though how the abrupt forcing toward a broad trough dropping in from the NW has in the case of ECM been put back to day 10 on three runs in a row now. The change to a run of easterlies in the tropical Pacific are enough for me to see highly changeable conditions as very plausible for next week as a whole, but I've seen ECM overestimate those easterlies before so I'm not yet convinced that a trough will completely take over... though I'd not rule out a brief romp across our lands. Either way, the critical question going forward will be how long do the easterlies last before the pendulum swings back the other way? Typical duration is what, a week?

    Edit:

    arpegeeur-6-48.png?12 arpegeeur-1-60.png?12

    The uppers are one thing but perhaps the belt of extreme theta-e values predicted by ARPEGE is the reason for it showing such incredible temperatures; this belt moves NE during the evening and so do the most extreme temps.

    I refer to this interesting post from Singularity sent yesterday. He always puts another view on the main models and offers an alternative prognosis that may be the outcome. That itself is refreshing and innovative.  There appears this morning little consistency between the main models going into next week with UKMO sinking the trough and cutting off the Westerlies with a rise of pressure in Mid Atlantic that builds a ridge to the NW of the British Isles, also born out by the UKMO extended. Maybe a rise in pressure to the NE would now be the favoured longer term outlook ( day 10 )  also indicated by  latest GEM. Anyway its been great weather viewing over the past few days with the heat and will SW England temps reach a record tomorrow ?

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    I reckon Heathrow could be the hottest spot this afternoon at 32c and tomorrow too when a wonderful 34c 93f is realistic..superb spell, loving the current model output for the next few days and hopefully we will see several more spells like this before the end of August and including the first half of September potentially!:D

    Edited by Frosty.
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    Posted
  • Location: Salzburger Sportwelt Lungau/ Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Salzburger Sportwelt Lungau/ Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
    2 minutes ago, carinthian said:

    I refer to this interesting post from Singularity sent yesterday. He always puts another view on the main models and offers an alternative prognosis that may be the outcome. That itself is refreshing and innovative.  There appears this morning little consistency between the main models going into next week with UKMO sinking the trough and cutting off the Westerlies with a rise of pressure in Mid Atlantic that builds a ridge to the NW of the British Isles, also born out by the UKMO extended. Maybe a rise in pressure to the NE would now be the favoured longer term outlook ( day 10 )  also indicated by  latest GEM. Anyway its been great weather viewing over the past few days with the heat and will SW England temps reach a record tomorrow ?

    Here is the extended chart from UKMO t168 showing the Azores high ridging northwards.

    ukm2.2017062700.168.lant.troplant.prp.fcst.gentracker.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
    Just now, Frosty. said:

    I reckon Heathrow could be the hottest spot this afternoon at 32c and tomorrow too with a wonderful 34c 93f is realistic..superb spell, loving the current model output for the next few days and hopefully we will see several more spells like this before the end of August!:D

    Sept had 30° temps last year, Tues and Wed, last plume of the year, 30° heat, and Clinton's had their Xmas tree with snow falling from it in window

    archives-2016-9-7-12-0.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
    1 hour ago, Man With Beard said:

    Thursday not a done deal according to the ARGEPE either. 36C in Great Yarmouth??

    arpegeuk-31-66-0.png?20-06

     

    Thursday's window for temps into the 30s looks more limited

    14:00 36c

    62_uk2mtmp.thumb.png.8435a1af47a931aec5e136f1e7cb854b.png

    16:00 27c

    64_uk2mtmp.thumb.png.18b7a8c095e2dc2fa2bfb6ea7db598b6.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Bedworth
  • Weather Preferences: No Extremes Of Any Kind
  • Location: Bedworth
    14 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

    Thursday's window for temps into the 30s looks more limited

    14:00 36c

    62_uk2mtmp.thumb.png.8435a1af47a931aec5e136f1e7cb854b.png

    16:00 27c

    64_uk2mtmp.thumb.png.18b7a8c095e2dc2fa2bfb6ea7db598b6.png

    Yep tomorrow looks like the swansong 

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Anything out of the ordinary!
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
    34 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

    Thursday's window for temps into the 30s looks more limited

    14:00 36c

    62_uk2mtmp.thumb.png.8435a1af47a931aec5e136f1e7cb854b.png

    16:00 27c

    64_uk2mtmp.thumb.png.18b7a8c095e2dc2fa2bfb6ea7db598b6.png

    I.e. not happening! :D 

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
    12 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

    I.e. not happening! :D 

    Yes it looks like the peak of this current hot spell will be tomorrow with temps into the low 30's celsius across southern areas, as high as 34c in and around London followed by a very thundery breakdown.

    sun_retro_weather_symbol_postcard-re32e1f65a56943c89084318bc73561d9_vgbaq_8byvr_324.jpg

    wsymbol_0032_thundery_showers_night.png

    Edited by Frosty.
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    Posted
  • Location: Bedworth
  • Weather Preferences: No Extremes Of Any Kind
  • Location: Bedworth
    37 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

    Yes it looks like the peak of this current hot spell will be tomorrow with temps into the low 30's celsius across southern areas, as high as 34c in and around London followed by a very thundery breakdown.

    sun_retro_weather_symbol_postcard-re32e1f65a56943c89084318bc73561d9_vgbaq_8byvr_324.jpg

    wsymbol_0032_thundery_showers_night.png

    was quite happy until the last 6 words

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    Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
    5 hours ago, knocker said:

    The EC46 means update this morning is low pressure dominated, particularly over the Arctic until certainly the 10th July. Thus we are looking at the Atlantic trough remaining the most influential with temps below average, perhaps significantly, so at the beginning of July.

    ok, i might be out with the timing, granted, but i would be extremely suprised if we didnt get more heat. i cannot think of a june hot spell (2 in fact) that didnt lead to something hotter/longer further down the line. so IF this is all we get, which is possible, itll be rather unusual.

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