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Model Output Discussions 12z 01/06/2017


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Apart from the brutal cold that the ecm sweeps into Scotland and the north west early Saturday the ecm has gone off script and is certainly not without interest.

At T120 it develops a small perturbation way out the west which latches on to the coat tails of the main low that is en route to Scandinavia and by 12z Sunday has developed into an enclosed feature just south west of Ireland. In the next 24 hours it phases in with the unstable Iberian Low and by 12Z Monday we have a great swathe of low pressure covering all of England and Wales and points south, Biscay and France. At this range pointless speculation but this has all the hallmarks of some spectacular convective activity.

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An unseasonally wet, cool and windy day amidst an underwhelming week of weather does not a summer make. Much as anticipated through the second half of Spring, the hand-over to Summer sees the atm

There have been some strange observations made today, as too often occurs in this thread whatever the time of year, and largely based on the usual knee-jerk response to longer term suggested NWP.

You always seem to jump in on my posts, along with a few others. Why don't you try giving your assessment of the models instead of picking holes in others efforts!

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Looking at the Ecm 12z, once the main heat is gone it stays warm in the south with temps into the low to mid 20's celsius and there is potential for the Azores high to ridge in next week. FWIW I agree with mushy that we have more hot spells to come this summer.:)

Edited by Frosty.
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The result of the feverish low pressure activity envisaged by this evenings ecm (see earlier post) then perhaps worth digging the thermals out again early next week

ecm_t850_anom_eur_8.thumb.png.a252af26050cfb4c79f98fc9884cbc6b.pngecm_t850_anom_eur_10.thumb.png.419cdb353219d2ac84c6e1fab633fe6b.png

 

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17 minutes ago, knocker said:

The result of the feverish low pressure activity envisaged by this evenings ecm (see earlier post) then perhaps worth digging the thermals out again early next week

ecm_t850_anom_eur_8.thumb.png.a252af26050cfb4c79f98fc9884cbc6b.pngecm_t850_anom_eur_10.thumb.png.419cdb353219d2ac84c6e1fab633fe6b.png

 

Bottom dollar it skirts of across the north and then north east into Scandinavia. 

I very much doubt it will be unsettled for long. 

Looks like a breakdown and then  azores heights building back. 

Still feel 100f likely this summer. 

Hoping for some spectacular storms to. 

Edited by MR EXTREMES
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2 hours ago, Man With Beard said:

It's gone seriously crackers, 33s in all kinds of weird places like Exeter and Liverpool!

There's a 10C difference between GFS and ARGEPE for some spots. Normally I'd back the ARGEPE every day of the week but this does seem a little nuts!!

I found myself going all jittery looking at what ARPEGE gets up to... interesting how the hottest spot starts a little way down the coast from Bristol and then migrates north, like some kin dof freakish 'pressure cooker' zone where local convergence is occurring while somehow avoiding the creation of cloud cover. Not sure I can see the CAP being so strong and the airmass so dry as to permit that... right? :shok:

Even so, given that the slightly faster progression of events now brings the 20*C 850 hPa isotherm up to the far-SW by Wednesday evening and that this is following four days of increasingly high temps for a large part of the southwest region, I'd not be that surprised to see the mid-30s crop up somewhere in said region.

It'll then be one more uncomfortable night before the freshening up occurs at some point on Thursday. Interesting that while GFS performs this early on, ARPEGE takes until mid-morning for CS England and late morning for the SE. The former then manages to get into the mid-20s anyway thanks to the warm start (the boundary does not look all that strong in temps of temp changes at the surface on this model run) while the SE sneaks in the high-20s in the late morning and then, after a dip due to some showery rain, rebounds toward that again by late afternoon. This could be a bit optimistic but it goes to show that Thursday is not looking like a straight forward changeover to fresh Atlantic weather.

Allowing again for over-optimism from the model, the weakness of that boundary may even allow Friday to bring further respectably high temps;

arpegeuk-41-101-0.png?19-19

ECM appears similar enough that this option is at least on the table rather than the chair, but GFS and UKMO both make more of Thursday's boundary and so restrict temps to the mid-20s at best. So it remains unclear just how much we'll be cooling down Thu-Fri.

 

Briefly on the weekend onward, well there's so little consistency between models that it all seems very much up in the air (thankfully, given GFS' nightmarish ideas for several runs now). It has not escaped my attention though how the abrupt forcing toward a broad trough dropping in from the NW has in the case of ECM been put back to day 10 on three runs in a row now. The change to a run of easterlies in the tropical Pacific are enough for me to see highly changeable conditions as very plausible for next week as a whole, but I've seen ECM overestimate those easterlies before so I'm not yet convinced that a trough will completely take over... though I'd not rule out a brief romp across our lands. Either way, the critical question going forward will be how long do the easterlies last before the pendulum swings back the other way? Typical duration is what, a week?

Edit:

arpegeeur-6-48.png?12 arpegeeur-1-60.png?12

The uppers are one thing but perhaps the belt of extreme theta-e values predicted by ARPEGE is the reason for it showing such incredible temperatures; this belt moves NE during the evening and so do the most extreme temps.

Edited by Singularity
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Good Evening , Well the European heat looks to stay with us for a few more days , and chasing storms and going to bed in a hot and sticky bedroom looks likely. There is no doubt that the gfs and ecm have the Atlantic coming in later week, but as usual there is lots of options on the table:rofl:

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32 minutes ago, MR EXTREMES said:

Bottom dollar it skirts of across the north and then north east into Scandinavia. 

I very much doubt it will be unsettled for long. 

Looks like a breakdown and then  azores heights building back. 

Still feel 100f likely this summer. 

Hoping for some spectacular storms to. 

you may well be correct but not according to this evening's ecm

ecm_mslp_uv850_natl_11.thumb.png.729027c94f0328fa38aef160007f08ef.png

Edited by knocker
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32 minutes ago, wimblettben said:

Oh come on that won't come off!:nonono:

If it did it would wreck a lot of trees this time of year.

I wasn't suggesting it would I merely posted the charts in response to  a question.

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On Wednesday I would not be surprised if the highest temperature did come at 6pm or even a little later with that surge of heat from the south, the last few days temperatures have held close to the maximum well into the evening, I guess it is one of the advantages of this spell happening around the solstice equinox where we get the absolute maximum amount of energy from the sun. The arpege still is insane and probably over the top. 

Not at all sure about the longer term options, it does look cooler and more changeable but I do wonder whether the heat to our south might prove more stubborn to shift and hence maybe we might end up with something a little warm and more settled, especially in the south.

Edited by Captain Shortwave
I didn't even think I had posted this yet :P
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2 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:

On Wednesday I would not be surprised if the highest temperature did come at 6pm or even a little later with that surge of heat from the south, the last few days temperatures have held close to the maximum well into the evening, I guess it is one of the advantages of this spell happening around the equinox where we get the absolute maximum amount of energy from the sun. The arpege still is insane and probably over the top.

 The solstice :-) 

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4 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

certainly no mention of anything close to 35c on tonight's BBC forecast....doesn't look like happening to me!

No big deal, 30/31/32/33c is hot enough.:D

It's a great spell, one for the books.

 

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Raw 12z ecm for wednesday has maxes sw of London @32c 

note that ecm parallel now running for July implementation (I think) 

if any significant  differences to the ops then I will try and post 

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14 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

certainly no mention of anything close to 35c on tonight's BBC forecast....doesn't look like happening to me!

Probably won't make 35C but watch the BBC up their predictions tomorrow for Wednesday. It seems to happen a lot that they wait until the last minute to forecast higher temps.

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The anomalies this evening are still indicating that the Atlantic trough being the influential factor, post the hot spell, out to day 14 a least with temps sliding below average.

610day_03.thumb.gif.929be451be342f6ac4c7499ac07391d2.gifecm_eps_t850a_5d_nh_9.thumb.png.157ccae683993855b64a8542ae7d2f90.pnggefs_z500a_5d_nh_37.thumb.png.b3e511d2e1386a8c6301f6a34aa63908.png

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Short term - staying very warm/hot from a line south of roughly the Wash to the Bristol channel, much of Wales, midlands and n england will see a drop in termps tomorrow, most notably NE, as a cold front sinks through these parts, but then it rebounds and becomes a warm front, with a surge of hot air for the SW on Wednesday - quite an unusual synoptic set up. The azores ridge will be trying to inflate north, but it is becoming stretched, and greater atlantic forces look like kicking it into touch by the end of the week, for all. Indeed temps should fall back to near average values with a much fresher feel, but lots of uncertainty regarding details.

Longer term - a flip back to generally more unsettled conditions looks most likely, similiar to the first week of June. So whilst we may be about to record a notably very warm June, it will end up being a month masked by large contrasts, certainly not a classically dry sunny one for most, though the SE will rank it very highly, those in the NW despite the current summery weather, quite poorly I suspect.. a lesson to those who don't look beyond the statistics, up until Saturday I was ranking June as poor, the current weather has brought it to average/slightly better than average, but I can't see it breaking above that here, indeed 'average' might be the best description putting all things into perspective.

Edited by damianslaw
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1 hour ago, Scorcher said:

Probably won't make 35C but watch the BBC up their predictions tomorrow for Wednesday. It seems to happen a lot that they wait until the last minute to forecast higher temps.

And right enough Tomasz Schafernaker mentioned the possibility of 34C in tonight's forecast.

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On the12Z Euro4, although the 850hpa temps approach 20C, the 950hpa temps are only around 22C at midday Wednesday:
17062112_1912.gif17062112_1912.gif

They were shown generally around 22-23C today and tomorrow (reaching 28C in N France where mid 30's are likely), so if the Euro4 is right I would suspect temps on Wednesday wouldn't be much higher. I'm guessing that because the plume sort of drifts in from the SW having spent relatively long over the sea, this is responsible for the less hot lower levels there.

But then the GFS 18Z goes for 31C now, 2C above it's predictions for today and tomorrow.. so maybe the models showing it hotter will be nearer the mark.

 

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1 hour ago, 40*C said:

Could this be the Azores back for another round?

its back.png

Way too far in fi to have any confidence I would think,  let's get charts like that within 4 days range, wouldn't bet on anything above that time frame, I wouldn't put it past if the Azores pushed in a lot early, keep an eye out for jet stream going north, I take everyday one step at a time, roll on the 00z gfs/ecm, its going be a lot cooler up south Yorkshire today gutted to say the least.

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Continuing hot in the south for the next couple of days as everyone knows before cooler weather is introduced on Thursday

Just briefly as there is a possibility that this may be covered in depth later by others. According to the METO 31-32C in parts today with tomorrow being the warmest with 33-34C quite likely in a number of areas. Possible some convective activity in the SW today. Further north, NI and Scotland much cooler, in the low 20sC with some cloud.

500vort_d02_30.thumb.png.26e8dc7f0f3d591d5cacea8bd576824a.png

Thursday sees a cold front traversing the country with much cooler air behind which basically heralds the start of a much more unsettled period with troughs from the Atlantic taking closer order. Thus by 12z saturday we see the upper trough tracking east north of Scotland and a showery westerly regime over the UK with temps down to the seasonal average and even below in Scotland.

PPVK89.thumb.gif.197fb0e7f60237ec3102ca2e3f4c586d.gifgfs_z500a_natl_19.thumb.png.e5db11aef096be5bbf974536a33fdaeb.pnggfs_ptype_slp_eur3_19.thumb.png.a41461c0be3436af25246fb058225a2f.png

This is quickly followed by the next trough approaching from the west which deepens on the strong jet running east over the UK and by 12z Tuesday is 976mb NW of Ireland and introducing some wet and windy conditions for most. Need, as always, to see what the ecm makes of this.

gfs_uv250_natl_31.thumb.png.b7511b37d7fa2c82ab3b54c35972b519.pnggfs_ptype_slp_eur3_31.thumb.png.e1f01d414d78ee385e9bdfd4383c6bc5.png

Edited by knocker
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6 hours ago, 40*C said:

Could this be the Azores back for another round?

its back.png

possible, the longwave pattern of ridging and troughing would suggest the next ridging will be in early july. until then we will be dominated/driven by a mean upper trough to our north, as knockers post above highlights.


edit....ive just seen glacier points post in serious thread... i did write this before id read his post, and i had mentioned this previously. i just didnt want to be thought of as copying him..

Edited by mushymanrob
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