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Model Output Discussions 12z 01/06/2017


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Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
    2 hours ago, Surrey said:

    I think we will be chasing heat like this for the rest of summer, stunning charts and a very rare thing. Although over the last few summers plumes like this are becoming ever more common. 

    Hopefully we can get a sort of repeating pattern of plumes like we did between mid July and mid September last year, even better if fitted neatly in July and August. There is that saying, which I'm somewhat dubious of, but can see some correlation, that the weather pattern around the solstice often replays throughout the summer. 

    My local N-W ten dayer is hinting at a swift recovery of temperatures after a cooler blip next weekend. All FI of course and I'm not sure what it's based on without looking at the charts (on my phone at the moment) so will be interested to see what today's runs bring.

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    An unseasonally wet, cool and windy day amidst an underwhelming week of weather does not a summer make. Much as anticipated through the second half of Spring, the hand-over to Summer sees the atm

    There have been some strange observations made today, as too often occurs in this thread whatever the time of year, and largely based on the usual knee-jerk response to longer term suggested NWP.

    You always seem to jump in on my posts, along with a few others. Why don't you try giving your assessment of the models instead of picking holes in others efforts!

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    Listening to the lunchtime news on a London Radio station and they said 35c is possible on Thursday given GFS was 4 to 5c under the max yesterday they may not be far off

    ukmaxtemp.png

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    Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby

    wow...look at these CAPE values for weds evening, looking like there could be some tremendous storms if this becomes reality.

     

    Rtavn8411.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds
  • Weather Preferences: snow, heat, thunderstorms
  • Location: Leeds
    29 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

    Listening to the lunchtime news on a London Radio station and they said 35c is possible on Thursday given GFS was 4 to 5c under the max yesterday they may not be far off

    ukmaxtemp.png

    Sigh.. the forecast for Thursday here gets worse and worse. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Bedworth
  • Weather Preferences: No Extremes Of Any Kind
  • Location: Bedworth
    11 minutes ago, cheese said:

    Sigh.. the forecast for Thursday here gets worse and worse. 

    yeah that potential 35c and potential is all it is , is really only for London and SE and decrease the further North one goes especially N England Northwards

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    Posted
  • Location: Bedworth
  • Weather Preferences: No Extremes Of Any Kind
  • Location: Bedworth
    30 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

    wow...look at these CAPE values for weds evening, looking like there could be some tremendous storms if this becomes reality.

     

    Rtavn8411.gif

    IF been the big Elephant in the room

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    Posted
  • Location: North Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms / Sunshine / Snow
  • Location: North Bristol
    41 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

    wow...look at these CAPE values for weds evening, looking like there could be some tremendous storms if this becomes reality.

     

    Rtavn8411.gif

    There are signals for some heavy precipitation to develop Weds afternoon/evening for parts of Wales and Midlands Northwards, prior to a more westerly interlude moving in. I suspect capping or lack of trigger results in little activity South of that at the moment.

     

    Example - NetWx-MR for Weds 6pm:

     

    nmmuk3hrprecip.thumb.png.80270e14a32a63135efaa89a9ef0f7dd.png

     

    So not without interest for some at least, depending what these charts look like in a couple of days time.

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    Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
    53 minutes ago, cheese said:

    Sigh.. the forecast for Thursday here gets worse and worse. 

    Atlantic almost in for north western areas, hottest 850's timed for early hours, northern areas look thundery Wed night, fresher Thurs

    h850t850eu.png

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    Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
    26 minutes ago, Gordon Webb said:

    IF been the big Elephant in the room

    its more a case of when, not if, with such hight temps plus increasing humidity high CAPE values are highly likely

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    Posted
  • Location: manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Summer & Winter
  • Location: manchester

    Well it does look like we're about to endure some punishment weather for stealing some sunshine according to ECM and GFS. only GFS keeps the warmth for longer.

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    Posted
  • Location: Salzburger Sportwelt Lungau/ Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Salzburger Sportwelt Lungau/ Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
    On ‎16‎/‎06‎/‎2017 at 10:27, carinthian said:

    This latest chart ( below ) from ECM at 144t confirms the progress towards a second plume of hot air after this weekend. A rather unusual set up with the main plume moving out of Iberia towards the SW of British Isles. The development of a upper trough from the Azores to the West of Scotland will aid the transfer of heat in 6 to 7 days time , especially up the west side of the British Isles. Expect some real heat this time next week.

     C

    ECMOPEU00_144_2.png

    This latest chart from ARPOPUK brings some impressive upper temps (5000ft level) into range of the SW reaches of the British Isles by mid week after a bit of a cool down further north and east. Could see temps close to 30C  in Devon/Somerset. Possibly Cork could be close to a record June temp providing cloud cover stays away .

    C

    ARPOPUK06_72_2.png

    Edited by carinthian
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    Posted
  • Location: Royston, Herts 76m asl
  • Location: Royston, Herts 76m asl
    3 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

    Listening to the lunchtime news on a London Radio station and they said 35c is possible on Thursday given GFS was 4 to 5c under the max yesterday they may not be far off

    ukmaxtemp.png

    Slightly sceptical as the UK record for June is 35.6C, but I suppose records are there to be broken!

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    Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

    Just flicking through the ensembles and I note that many of them push the cold front through quite quickly over the weekend (hardly "cool" though with average uppers in London still 10C afterwards!!) - and then rebuild the heat during next week. 

    June CET could get close to 1976 if we get this second heatwave next week. Just a discussion point at the moment of course.

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    Posted
  • Location: Between Sidmouth and Exeter
  • Location: Between Sidmouth and Exeter

    Although the 20C line is over the south on Wednesday night on some models, by midday Thursday even the 15C line is only over the SE on the ECM, moving steadily away
    .ecm0125_nat_msl_t850_6urk_2017061800_108

    The SE would probably reach 30C still, but last night's ECM was much better for a very hot Thursday.
    Though the faster evolution does mean Wednesday is a little hotter for some.

    If it was a bit slower to clear than that, it might reach 33-35C I'd guess (Current GFS might just manage it in the SE)

    From an interest point of view it's kind of annoying to me that the dividing line of the real high 850's (near 20C) is literally in the channel for much of this spell, apart from a possibly poorly timed brief plume overnight (BBC has 36C for Rennes two days in a row)

    The Met Office forecast is down to 21C here on Thursday!

    Edited by Evening thunder
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    Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire

    Met Office Long Range suggests temperatures in July are likely to be above normal than average with some hot spells up until 17th, will be interesting to see how it turns out

    Edited by TJS1998Tom
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    Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

    There certainly has been a trend to sweep the heat away quicker on Thursday, a slightly flatter pattern which hinders the northward progress of the plume, it would be nice to see if we can reverse this trend on the 12z suite.

    Longer term, the GEFs picking up on another warm up into the final week of June.

    gens-21-1-192.png   gens-21-1-240.png

    ECM ens not keen at the moment.

    EDM1-192.GIF?18-12   EDM1-240.GIF?18-12

    So some things to look out for, either way it still looks like we will remain on the warm side.

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    Posted
  • Location: Live in central Gravesend work in NW Kent too now
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy November to March and Sunny and warm April to Early October
  • Location: Live in central Gravesend work in NW Kent too now
    43 minutes ago, TJS1998Tom said:

    Met Office Long Range suggests temperatures in July are likely to be above normal than average with some hot spells up until 17th, will be interesting to see how it turns out

    Best bloody not my annual leave starts 18th I normally have it the week before as my birthdays on St Swithun's Day but someone else at work booked it off:-(

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    Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
    1 hour ago, TJS1998Tom said:

    Met Office Long Range suggests temperatures in July are likely to be above normal than average with some hot spells up until 17th, will be interesting to see how it turns out

    wouldnt surprise me.... we appear to have a longwave pattern of troughing and ridging over a 2-3 week period for a while now. id expect the next ridging event to be early july after a trough dominated week or two after the breakdown. id be very surprised if this hot spell was the last we got this season, in fact i think it would be quite remarkable.

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    Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
    33 minutes ago, Kentspur said:

    Best bloody not my annual leave starts 18th I normally have it the week before as my birthdays on St Swithun's Day but someone else at work booked it off:-(

    lol I dont mind the head so long as it means a thundery climax, I'm lucky the heat is at least cooling down a bit next week for my steam trip to London, otherwise it would be at a fire risk

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    Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
    9 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

    wouldnt surprise me.... we appear to have a longwave pattern of troughing and ridging over a 2-3 week period for a while now. id expect the next ridging event to be early july after a trough dominated week or two after the breakdown. id be very surprised if this hot spell was the last we got this season, in fact i think it would be quite remarkable.

    Yeah, we've done good so far this Summer with having heat as early as May, one we're in atm and again for the end of the coming week. Perhaps we could one day see temps like London got the other year at 37? 

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    Posted
  • Location: Sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: thunderstorms, heatwaves, extreme weather
  • Location: Sheffield

    GFS 12z continues the trend of sweeping the heat away quickly on Thursday. Far south would still hit 30C but Wednesday looks hotter. As it stands June record not under threat.

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    Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
    12 minutes ago, Steel City Skies said:

    GFS 12z continues the trend of sweeping the heat away quickly on Thursday. Far south would still hit 30C but Wednesday looks hotter. As it stands June record not under threat.

    Yes was just about to post this. It now looks as though today may have been the peak of this spell (for the foreseeable). Just a matter of waiting for the next plume to show up now, (as it inevitably will) given the long wave pattern we appear to be in.

    GFS takes us towards a properly wet pattern by day 8... it would be some useful rain by that point

    gfsnh-0-192.png?12

    Edited by CreweCold
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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    Wednesday and possibly Thursday could see temps peaking between 33c to 35c

    U72-7UK.GIF?18-18

    Fresher air sweeps across the country by Saturday

    UW144-7.GIF?18-18

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    Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

    Thankfully there is a cooling trend to pleasant summer conditions although it take sit time to get south. Weekend looks good temps low 20's just a sign of some light showers but I'll take that over oppressive heat.

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