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phil nw.

Model Output Discussions 12z 01/06/2017

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2 hours ago, Surrey said:

I think we will be chasing heat like this for the rest of summer, stunning charts and a very rare thing. Although over the last few summers plumes like this are becoming ever more common. 

Hopefully we can get a sort of repeating pattern of plumes like we did between mid July and mid September last year, even better if fitted neatly in July and August. There is that saying, which I'm somewhat dubious of, but can see some correlation, that the weather pattern around the solstice often replays throughout the summer. 

My local N-W ten dayer is hinting at a swift recovery of temperatures after a cooler blip next weekend. All FI of course and I'm not sure what it's based on without looking at the charts (on my phone at the moment) so will be interested to see what today's runs bring.

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Listening to the lunchtime news on a London Radio station and they said 35c is possible on Thursday given GFS was 4 to 5c under the max yesterday they may not be far off

ukmaxtemp.png

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wow...look at these CAPE values for weds evening, looking like there could be some tremendous storms if this becomes reality.

 

Rtavn8411.gif

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29 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Listening to the lunchtime news on a London Radio station and they said 35c is possible on Thursday given GFS was 4 to 5c under the max yesterday they may not be far off

ukmaxtemp.png

Sigh.. the forecast for Thursday here gets worse and worse. 

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11 minutes ago, cheese said:

Sigh.. the forecast for Thursday here gets worse and worse. 

yeah that potential 35c and potential is all it is , is really only for London and SE and decrease the further North one goes especially N England Northwards

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30 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

wow...look at these CAPE values for weds evening, looking like there could be some tremendous storms if this becomes reality.

 

Rtavn8411.gif

IF been the big Elephant in the room

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41 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

wow...look at these CAPE values for weds evening, looking like there could be some tremendous storms if this becomes reality.

 

Rtavn8411.gif

There are signals for some heavy precipitation to develop Weds afternoon/evening for parts of Wales and Midlands Northwards, prior to a more westerly interlude moving in. I suspect capping or lack of trigger results in little activity South of that at the moment.

 

Example - NetWx-MR for Weds 6pm:

 

nmmuk3hrprecip.thumb.png.80270e14a32a63135efaa89a9ef0f7dd.png

 

So not without interest for some at least, depending what these charts look like in a couple of days time.

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53 minutes ago, cheese said:

Sigh.. the forecast for Thursday here gets worse and worse. 

Atlantic almost in for north western areas, hottest 850's timed for early hours, northern areas look thundery Wed night, fresher Thurs

h850t850eu.png

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26 minutes ago, Gordon Webb said:

IF been the big Elephant in the room

its more a case of when, not if, with such hight temps plus increasing humidity high CAPE values are highly likely

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Well it does look like we're about to endure some punishment weather for stealing some sunshine according to ECM and GFS. only GFS keeps the warmth for longer.

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On ‎16‎/‎06‎/‎2017 at 10:27, carinthian said:

This latest chart ( below ) from ECM at 144t confirms the progress towards a second plume of hot air after this weekend. A rather unusual set up with the main plume moving out of Iberia towards the SW of British Isles. The development of a upper trough from the Azores to the West of Scotland will aid the transfer of heat in 6 to 7 days time , especially up the west side of the British Isles. Expect some real heat this time next week.

 C

ECMOPEU00_144_2.png

This latest chart from ARPOPUK brings some impressive upper temps (5000ft level) into range of the SW reaches of the British Isles by mid week after a bit of a cool down further north and east. Could see temps close to 30C  in Devon/Somerset. Possibly Cork could be close to a record June temp providing cloud cover stays away .

C

ARPOPUK06_72_2.png

Edited by carinthian

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3 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

Listening to the lunchtime news on a London Radio station and they said 35c is possible on Thursday given GFS was 4 to 5c under the max yesterday they may not be far off

ukmaxtemp.png

Slightly sceptical as the UK record for June is 35.6C, but I suppose records are there to be broken!

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Just flicking through the ensembles and I note that many of them push the cold front through quite quickly over the weekend (hardly "cool" though with average uppers in London still 10C afterwards!!) - and then rebuild the heat during next week. 

June CET could get close to 1976 if we get this second heatwave next week. Just a discussion point at the moment of course.

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Although the 20C line is over the south on Wednesday night on some models, by midday Thursday even the 15C line is only over the SE on the ECM, moving steadily away
.ecm0125_nat_msl_t850_6urk_2017061800_108

The SE would probably reach 30C still, but last night's ECM was much better for a very hot Thursday.
Though the faster evolution does mean Wednesday is a little hotter for some.

If it was a bit slower to clear than that, it might reach 33-35C I'd guess (Current GFS might just manage it in the SE)

From an interest point of view it's kind of annoying to me that the dividing line of the real high 850's (near 20C) is literally in the channel for much of this spell, apart from a possibly poorly timed brief plume overnight (BBC has 36C for Rennes two days in a row)

The Met Office forecast is down to 21C here on Thursday!

Edited by Evening thunder

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Met Office Long Range suggests temperatures in July are likely to be above normal than average with some hot spells up until 17th, will be interesting to see how it turns out

Edited by TJS1998Tom

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There certainly has been a trend to sweep the heat away quicker on Thursday, a slightly flatter pattern which hinders the northward progress of the plume, it would be nice to see if we can reverse this trend on the 12z suite.

Longer term, the GEFs picking up on another warm up into the final week of June.

gens-21-1-192.png   gens-21-1-240.png

ECM ens not keen at the moment.

EDM1-192.GIF?18-12   EDM1-240.GIF?18-12

So some things to look out for, either way it still looks like we will remain on the warm side.

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43 minutes ago, TJS1998Tom said:

Met Office Long Range suggests temperatures in July are likely to be above normal than average with some hot spells up until 17th, will be interesting to see how it turns out

Best bloody not my annual leave starts 18th I normally have it the week before as my birthdays on St Swithun's Day but someone else at work booked it off:-(

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1 hour ago, TJS1998Tom said:

Met Office Long Range suggests temperatures in July are likely to be above normal than average with some hot spells up until 17th, will be interesting to see how it turns out

wouldnt surprise me.... we appear to have a longwave pattern of troughing and ridging over a 2-3 week period for a while now. id expect the next ridging event to be early july after a trough dominated week or two after the breakdown. id be very surprised if this hot spell was the last we got this season, in fact i think it would be quite remarkable.

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33 minutes ago, Kentspur said:

Best bloody not my annual leave starts 18th I normally have it the week before as my birthdays on St Swithun's Day but someone else at work booked it off:-(

lol I dont mind the head so long as it means a thundery climax, I'm lucky the heat is at least cooling down a bit next week for my steam trip to London, otherwise it would be at a fire risk

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9 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

wouldnt surprise me.... we appear to have a longwave pattern of troughing and ridging over a 2-3 week period for a while now. id expect the next ridging event to be early july after a trough dominated week or two after the breakdown. id be very surprised if this hot spell was the last we got this season, in fact i think it would be quite remarkable.

Yeah, we've done good so far this Summer with having heat as early as May, one we're in atm and again for the end of the coming week. Perhaps we could one day see temps like London got the other year at 37? 

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GFS 12z continues the trend of sweeping the heat away quickly on Thursday. Far south would still hit 30C but Wednesday looks hotter. As it stands June record not under threat.

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12 minutes ago, Steel City Skies said:

GFS 12z continues the trend of sweeping the heat away quickly on Thursday. Far south would still hit 30C but Wednesday looks hotter. As it stands June record not under threat.

Yes was just about to post this. It now looks as though today may have been the peak of this spell (for the foreseeable). Just a matter of waiting for the next plume to show up now, (as it inevitably will) given the long wave pattern we appear to be in.

GFS takes us towards a properly wet pattern by day 8... it would be some useful rain by that point

gfsnh-0-192.png?12

Edited by CreweCold

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Wednesday and possibly Thursday could see temps peaking between 33c to 35c

U72-7UK.GIF?18-18

Fresher air sweeps across the country by Saturday

UW144-7.GIF?18-18

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Thankfully there is a cooling trend to pleasant summer conditions although it take sit time to get south. Weekend looks good temps low 20's just a sign of some light showers but I'll take that over oppressive heat.

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