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Model Output Discussions 12z 01/06/2017

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Very warm to hot for a good while if GEM is on the money

GEMOPEU12_96_2.thumb.png.c4476f05a177b566a0f378f45d0600e7.pngGEMOPEU12_120_2.thumb.png.a646beccfba9f2d339c690936ee59c1b.pngGEMOPEU12_144_2.thumb.png.f8cde2477a8776e3f6bf9d52bd49a263.png

GEMOPEU12_168_2.thumb.png.44209ece801f4a9dc7cccc8b7cea8a2a.png

The June record is 35.6 last set on the 28th in 1976 we could be getting close to that in the coming week

Edited by Summer Sun
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35 minutes ago, Steel City Skies said:

Yes signs of a backtrack with the quick breakdown after Thursday looking less likely judging by today's output. ECM 12z will be crucial later on this evening. More twists and turns to come but let's hope we can get another hot and sunny weekend out of this fine spell :) 

I'd be inclined to think the lower heights south of Iceland will be pushed north north east. 

As the dominant azores heights keep things in the more summery theme. 

Unfortunately for the north and north west this is not great. 

But the fact is the azores highs are showing signs of being very stubborn. 

Which in a weak el nino lower sfi index plus low solar activity could well pull the strings for a more 80s style summer. 

100f this year strong possibility compared to recent years. 

And I'm looking forward to the extreme thundery breakdown. 

I think it's already been a classic thundery year already. 

I'm happy with the charts I've seen over the last 3 or 4 days. 

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2 minutes ago, MR EXTREMES said:

I'd be inclined to think the lower heights south of Iceland will be pushed north north east. 

As the dominant azores heights keep things in the more summery theme. 

Unfortunately for the north and north west this is not great. 

But the fact is the azores highs are showing signs of being very stubborn. 

Which in a weak el nino lower sfi index plus low solar activity could well pull the strings for a more 80s style summer. 

100f this year strong possibility compared to recent years. 

And I'm looking forward to the extreme thundery breakdown. 

I think it's already been a classic thundery year already

I'm happy with the charts I've seen over the last 3 or 4 days. 

North and west Midlands not so, some reports from the North Midlands on here, saying latest date ever still with no thunder, none here either

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10 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Very warm to hot for a good while if GEM is on the money

GEMOPEU12_96_2.thumb.png.c4476f05a177b566a0f378f45d0600e7.pngGEMOPEU12_120_2.thumb.png.a646beccfba9f2d339c690936ee59c1b.pngGEMOPEU12_144_2.thumb.png.f8cde2477a8776e3f6bf9d52bd49a263.png

GEMOPEU12_168_2.thumb.png.44209ece801f4a9dc7cccc8b7cea8a2a.png

The June record is 35.6 last set on the 28th in 1976 we could be getting close to that in the coming week

If thats the 12z you're posting from, it shows the hot day as wednesday rather than thursday with a downward trend from there onwards temperature-wise.

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1 minute ago, Ice Man 85 said:

If thats the 12z you're posting from, it shows the hot day as wednesday rather than thursday with a downward trend from there onwards temperature-wise.

If GEM is right somewhere in the south will record 30c for 7 successive day's including today and tomorrow a long time since that happened

51_uk2mtmp.png?cb=93975_uk2mtmp.png?cb=93999_uk2mtmp.png?cb=939

123_uk2mtmp.png?cb=939147_uk2mtmp.png?cb=939

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21 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

If GEM is right somewhere in the south will record 30c for 7 successive day's including today and tomorrow a long time since that happened

51_uk2mtmp.png?cb=93975_uk2mtmp.png?cb=93999_uk2mtmp.png?cb=939

123_uk2mtmp.png?cb=939147_uk2mtmp.png?cb=939

As long as its not here.

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maybe we are looking at a 1995 kind of summer ...? 

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6 minutes ago, Badgers01 said:

maybe we are looking at a 1995 kind of summer ...? 

Hopefully:D

NOAA_1_1995063000_2.gif

NOAA_1_1995062600_1.gif

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38 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

If GEM is right somewhere in the south will record 30c for 7 successive day's including today and tomorrow a long time since that happened

51_uk2mtmp.png?cb=93975_uk2mtmp.png?cb=93999_uk2mtmp.png?cb=939

123_uk2mtmp.png?cb=939147_uk2mtmp.png?cb=939

But only 22C here. :wallbash:

I hate it when this happens. Absolutely blood-boiling. General rule of thumb - if it's 30C in London it should be 27C here (as per today). Not a bloody 10C difference.

Edited by cheese
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Glorious stuff from ECM easily into the 30s Midlands south upper 20s widely 

ECMOPUK12_120_2.thumb.png.82118316912ea714abe2d24ade1d4556.png

Edited by Summer Sun
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For hot weather fans in the south, your cup runneth over so sayeth the Ecm 12z:D

24_mslp850uk.png

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Edited by Frosty.
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12 minutes ago, cheese said:

But only 22C here. :wallbash:

I hate it when this happens. Absolutely blood-boiling. General rule of thumb - if it's 30C in London it should be 27C here (as per today). Not a bloody 10C difference.

Yes, here is Tuesday on latest FAX, for heat fans away from the south, Tuesday looking grim, wouldn't even rule out drizzle, and not making 20° midlands north

fax72s.gif?1

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ECM is absolutely baking on Thursday! Uppers close to 20C in the far south :yahoo:

Fresher weather quickly sweeps away the heat on Friday (hopefully triggering a storm or twelve) with ridging close by for the weekend - think about a greedy reload into the following week...again :p 

Edited by Steel City Skies
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Just 10 miles away in Doncaster its 28C? You'll be seeing 26C tomorrow and Monday and Thursday 29C

19 minutes ago, cheese said:

But only 22C here. :wallbash:

I hate it when this happens. Absolutely blood-boiling. General rule of thumb - if it's 30C in London it should be 27C here (as per today). Not a bloody 10C difference.

 

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Just now, 40*C said:

Just 10 miles away in Doncaster its 28C? You'll be seeing 26C tomorrow and Monday and Thursday 29C

 

It was 27C today, good tomorrow and Monday. That GEM model showed the week after that being very disappointing. 

ECM looks better though so I hope that's closer to the money.

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Still 29C here at nearly 8pm. Lovely day. Tomorrow and Monday hot, hopefully that cold front won't get near here next week and keep it hot all week.

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1 minute ago, stainesbloke said:

Still 29C here at nearly 8pm. Lovely day. Tomorrow and Monday hot, hopefully that cold front won't get near here next week and keep it hot all week.

Yes it's a balmy beautiful evening, don't know why anyone would prefer cool and unsettled westerly upper flows when we can have this!..hope it goes on and on..and on:D

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It's certainly a fresher end to ECM with winds maybe even coming down from the north for a time

ECMOPEU12_216_2.thumb.png.e30d03bf5ae555003a692290a313628a.pngECMOPEU12_240_2.thumb.png.d174fa2144c65075b0aff906b46615e3.png

A lot of heat to get through beforehand the only thing uncertain is if this spell will be record breaking beating the June record of 1976

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Sub zero 850s into Scotland at the end of tonights ECM!!   :p just for fun of course lol

ECU0-240.GIF.thumb.png.4219a52c9356ee2935c8ca1889eeca8b.png

Hope everyone is enjoying the lovely weather. A few hot days is fine, hoping to see some good storms next Thursday.... :good:

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3 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Yes it's a balmy beautiful evening, don't know why anyone would prefer cool and unsettled westerly upper flows when we can have this!..hope it goes on and on..and on:D

Maybe because they work? Or like to get a proper sleep? Just a thought for the more selfish amongst you. And FYI I don't want wet weather; I'd settle for dry, sunny and comfortable. Sadly we can't get that here in the UK past first half of may without those vile currents from the continent.

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Just now, Ice Man 85 said:

Maybe because they work? Or like to get a proper sleep? Just a thought for the more selfish amongst you. And FYI I don't want wet weather; I'd settle for dry, sunny and comfortable. Sadly we can't get that here in the UK past first half of may without those vile currents from the continent.

You are always moaning! let those having this exceptional weather enjoy it while it lasts! :)

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29 minutes ago, cheese said:

But only 22C here. :wallbash:

I hate it when this happens. Absolutely blood-boiling. General rule of thumb - if it's 30C in London it should be 27C here (as per today). Not a bloody 10C difference.

Why is it 'blood boiling'? Yes, in general terms, London temperatures are only a few degrees higher than Leeds. But in heatwaves and hot spells, London and the SE can quite often be considerably hotter than the rest of the UK. Just how it is! Plus on Tue, a cold front has affected Leeds introducing much cooler air, but further south is still in the warm air. 

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Someone said the all-time June record was at risk. Actually, I second that. Here's a selection of charts for Wednesday/Thursday

126-7UK.GIF?17-12  gemfr-1-102.png?12  arpegeuk-16-114-0.png?17-19  ECU0-120.GIF?17-0

Not as simple as uppers I know, but history tells us that the 20C 850hpa line during daylight hours often leads to a temperature of 35C or more. Add in the fact that we'll have been boiling hot for 5/6 days by then...

 

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4 minutes ago, stainesbloke said:

Why is it 'blood boiling'? Yes, in general terms, London temperatures are only a few degrees higher than Leeds. But in heatwaves and hot spells, London and the SE can quite often be considerably hotter than the rest of the UK. Just how it is! Plus on Tue, a cold front has affected Leeds introducing much cooler air, but further south is still in the warm air. 

If you were on the opposite end you would find it blood boiling as well. Don't give me that rubbish. 

 

Edited by cheese

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