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phil nw.

Model Output Discussions 12z 01/06/2017

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3 minutes ago, 40*C said:

Anomalies aren't pointing to that I'm afraid its all down hill towards a colder, wetter than average first half of July.

I'm with mushy and the MO but whatever happens in 2 weeks + we have plenty of hot and sunny weather to enjoy in the coming days.:D

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Suppose I'd better post something other than moaning before more of my posts are removed.

Incidentally I have no idea where this site pulls its 7/10 day forecasts from since they're showing barely any difference between my area and london on some days. I'm no weather nut but that can't be right.

Even the overcooking death machine that is the GEM isn't showing their highs.

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3 minutes ago, 40*C said:

Anomalies aren't pointing to that I'm afraid its all down hill towards a colder, wetter than average first half of July.

anom.JPG

how accurate are they?... i mean, early july is over 2 weeks away, ill not worry much about that until/unless the noaa anomaly charts show it. and indeed my punt might well be misplaced, but on the whole its not often we get hot weather in june then nothing else for the rest of summer. usually hot weather in june leads to hot weather in july.

but we will see, for now im going to enjoy the next week.. at least some heat is in the bag.

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2 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

how accurate are they?... 

About as accurate as me saying that it'll snow on September 1st?:D

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3 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

I'm with mushy and the MO but whatever happens in 2 weeks + we have plenty of hot and sunny weather to enjoy in the coming days.:D

best june weather since 06, i believe, junes have been pretty poor away from some favoured areas like the southeast  and the south and west in 2013.

in 44 years of grass cutting, this has been the longest gap between 'browned off' drought stressed grass , 11 years, 06, was the last major event. im overdue.

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27 minutes ago, 40*C said:

Anomalies aren't pointing to that I'm afraid its all down hill towards a colder, wetter than average first half of July.

anom.JPG

Or as we prefer to call it ... The Scottish Summer

 

image.jpeg

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27 minutes ago, 40*C said:

Anomalies aren't pointing to that I'm afraid its all down hill towards a colder, wetter than average first half of July.

anom.JPG

Or as we prefer to call it ... The Scottish Summer

image.thumb.jpeg.9e36a65b9944f79784ecdbc221b1f20d.jpeg

 

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19 minutes ago, 40*C said:

Anomalies aren't pointing to that I'm afraid its all down hill towards a colder, wetter than average first half of July.

anom.JPG

The week three ECM height anomaly chart shows lower heights straddling the north of the UK and the focus of the ridge down to the SW.

ec-ens_nat_taem_gh500_gh500-1000_anom_20

This configuration shows a rainfall deficit.

ec-ens_nat_taem_msl_tprate_anom_20170615

We know that the models, particularly GFS, have been frequently trying to introduce low heights in the late stages of the runs but as time counts down, the ridging has the won the day. Whether it continues to be the case, time will tell. So far, this summer, the EC has had a better performance than it did in winter - it would be very unusual for no breakdowns in summer and even if two weeks hence turns out as modelled, that is no predictor of what is in store for the rest of summer.:)

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5 minutes ago, DR(S)NO said:

Or as we prefer to call it ... The Scottish Summer

image.thumb.jpeg.9e36a65b9944f79784ecdbc221b1f20d.jpeg

 

And what scottish summer would be complete without millions of midges!..:D but seriously I hope you guys see some summery weather soon.:)

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Oven baked Iberia and Morocco tomorrow. Max heat warning in place for at least 15 provinces this weekend. Temps widely 40C across much of Southern Spain and Portugual. 45c poss in Morocco. Reached 43c in Seville this afternoon , I think that's nearly 110f in old money.

ARPOPEU12_24_2.png

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A polite reminder for some folks to use the Model banter/moan thread for more general chat. Just Model Output discussion in here please otherwise posts may start to go missing.

Thanks all ☺

Edited by Polar Maritime

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20 minutes ago, carinthian said:

Oven baked Iberia and Morocco tomorrow. Max heat warning in place for at least 15 provinces this weekend. Temps widely 40C across much of Southern Spain and Portugual. 45c poss in Morocco. Reached 43c in Seville this afternoon , I think that's nearly 110f in old money.

ARPOPEU12_24_2.png

Looks like we are going to tap in to some of that heat on Wednesday. UKMO and GFS  pushes the Atlantic trough threw later in the week to bring in cooler maritime air mass , especially further north, but that a long way off and timing can change. Just enjoy the next 5 days at least and hope Scotland/NI/Cumbria sees some of the sun and heat after such a dull period.

 C

UKMOPEU12_120_1.png

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4 hours ago, DR(S)NO said:

If your lucky Ross we may even have some sunny intervals tomorrow......Ooooooo

Its been like Groundhog Day the past week or so with monotonous greyness and damp to wet weather .

Never mind... Our time will come.

Well toasty next week

EGPF_2017061606_tx_240.thumb.png.8e05ff7a9525e95e21c03600e1984f54.png

DMIRep17-04.pdf

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23 minutes ago, knocker said:

Well toasty next week

EGPF_2017061606_tx_240.thumb.png.8e05ff7a9525e95e21c03600e1984f54.png

DMIRep17-04.pdf

Not UK-wide until Glasgow reaches 80F! :rofl: Seriously though, the models show the perfect setup for heat right up to N Scotland next week but the Atlantic shoves it to the east before it has a chance to blink. Weird how the high can be so stubborn but then just disappear when it's beneficial UK-WIDE. 

 

UK weather is a dodgy thing.

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The Gem 12z shows the continental heat pump in fine working order from next midweek with another pulse of hot and humid air heading north and probably some big thunderstorms, both homegrown and imported from france along with plenty of hot sunshine..Scotland hots up too which is good to see!:)

In the meantime, plenty of hot sunny weather is already in the bag across the southern half of the uk especially.

GEMOPEU12_144_2.png

GEMOPEU12_168_2.png

GEMOPEU12_192_2.png

Edited by Frosty.

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Liking the idea of only a shallow low during the final days of this particular fine spell; room for thunderstorms without the cool blustery winds afterward.

Starting to wonder if we're seeing a version of events emerging that's less dramatic but better for keeping a more settled regime going thereafter, at least for southern parts - but now I'm getting toward the longer-term that I pledged to avoid so... post terminated! :D

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Lots and lots of hot fine weather in the south on the Ecm 12z..high summer at its best!:D..I wouldn't worry about the details later next week as things will change..just enjoy the upcoming very warm / hot weather which on this run pushes north into scotland for a time..I would expect some T-Storms to feature in next weeks forecast but plenty of hot sunshine too..good support from the 12z output for another surge of heat next week. 

24_mslp500.png

48_mslp500.png

48_mslp850uk.png

72_mslp850.png

72_mslp850uk.png

96_mslp850uk.png

96_mslp850.png

120_mslp850uk.png

120_mslp850.png

120_thick.png

144_mslp850uk.png

144_mslp850.png

Edited by Frosty.

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Seems the models are moving back to a quicker breakdown again, after the slower/extended option that appeared on the 12z's yesterday I think we're back near where we were.

On the ECM the plume of high 850's isn't properly over the UK on Wednesday then is already clearing on Thursday!
ECMOPEU12_120_2.pngECMOPEU12_144_2.png

Very nice 5 days for the southern half or so of the UK though, if a bit hot for some.

The enthusiast part of me wishes the set up was slightly further north, just across the channel is proper heat with 850's close to 20C and 34C forecast even for Rennes. That would probably mean better weather further north too, but I'd probably find those temps rather uncomfortable.
 

3 hours ago, 40*C said:

Anomalies aren't pointing to that I'm afraid its all down hill towards a colder, wetter than average first half of July.

anom.JPG

That doesn't really look colder and wetter than average at least down here. Wouldn't take much to shift more Azores ridging over the UK.. but then we are getting a bit ahead of ourselves of course.. It could be like the Met Office outlook or more favourable, or it could be wetter/cooler.

This evening's ECM very much goes down the wetter/cooler route though...

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The ecm is phasing the two upper troughs in the Atlantic together next Wednesday which puts a s;lightly different complexion on things. This results in a negatively tilted surface trough from Greenland to the Western Isles, but thanks to the Azores HP it swings north east and just the edge of the rain belt affects NI. the north of England and Scotland. This results in an unusual SW/NE temp split with 27C in the Bristol area and 13C in Aberdeen (19C in the Clyde Valley)

To recap a couple of days.Monday 27-29C south of a line Bristol to the Wash, 22-25C as one moves north and in the 20C range for NI and Scotland.

Tuesday sees the beginning of the SW/NE switch with 27-28C in the Dorset, Somerset, Hampshire region and 15C in the NE.

To continue. Once the fronts have cleared the north overnight on Wednesday the door is ajar for more troughs to swing in from the west as a general area of low pressure forms centred to the NW/N and fronts impact the UK Friday evening with showery rain affecting all of the country apart from the SE and temps on Friday down to the high teens

By midday saturday the depression is over NI and NW England bringing spasmodic rain and fairy strong winds to many areas.

ecm_z500_anom_natl_6.thumb.png.9ff5ac67ca3585da1a5440d5c68c18b0.pngecm_mslp_uv850_natl_8.thumb.png.bb1bc22673601a0f7bfba2a826ea3dea.pngecm_mslp_uv850_natl_9.thumb.png.d59620f75872e90868f69f8cb0f7e70a.png

I'm also pleased to report a young Sidney was out soaking up the rays today

sidney.thumb.jpg.17268912fde17456ad552134e1610521.jpg

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18 minutes ago, knocker said:

The ecm is phasing the two upper troughs in the Atlantic together next Wednesday which puts a s;lightly different complexion on things. This results in a negatively tilted surface trough from Greenland to the Western Isles, but thanks to the Azores HP it swings north east and just the edge of the rain belt affects NI. the north of England and Scotland. This results in an unusual SW/NE temp split with 27C in the Bristol area and 13C in Aberdeen (19C in the Clyde Valley)

To recap a couple of days.Monday 27-29C south of a line Bristol to the Wash, 22-25C as one moves north and in the 20C range for NI and Scotland.

Tuesday sees the beginning of the SW/NE switch with 27-28C in the Dorset, Somerset, Hampshire region and 15C in the NE.

To continue. Once the fronts have cleared the north overnight on Wednesday the door is ajar for more troughs to swing in from the west as a general area of low pressure forms centred to the NW/N and fronts impact the UK Friday evening with showery rain affecting all of the country apart from the SE and temps on Friday down to the high teens

By midday saturday the depression is over NI and NW England bringing spasmodic rain and fairy strong winds to many areas.

ecm_z500_anom_natl_6.thumb.png.9ff5ac67ca3585da1a5440d5c68c18b0.pngecm_mslp_uv850_natl_8.thumb.png.bb1bc22673601a0f7bfba2a826ea3dea.pngecm_mslp_uv850_natl_9.thumb.png.d59620f75872e90868f69f8cb0f7e70a.png

I'm also pleased to report a young Sidney was out soaking up the rays today

sidney.thumb.jpg.17268912fde17456ad552134e1610521.jpg

always like reading posts like this

more information less hysteria

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11 minutes ago, Gordon Webb said:

always like reading posts like this

more information less hysteria

I wouldn't call it hysteria, it's enthusiasm for the weather which is why most of us are here!:)

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Seems there is no escape from the upper trough getting into nw Europe in the 7/10 day timeframe. Would seem unlikely that we will manage to avoid it this time. 

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ECM tonight reminds us that the cutting off of the Atlantic low is a close call. If it doesn't get cut off enough, it will be swept towards the UK by the mother low to its north

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9 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

ECM tonight reminds us that the cutting off of the Atlantic low is a close call. If it doesn't get cut off enough, it will be swept towards the UK by the mother low to its north

Yes , Hopefully this does not come to be , I much prefer the heat reload option .

 

IMG_7546.PNG

IMG_7547.PNG

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2 hours ago, bluearmy said:

Seems there is no escape from the upper trough getting into nw Europe in the 7/10 day timeframe. Would seem unlikely that we will manage to avoid it this time. 

As you know, 7 to 10 days out in weather terms is a long way out to say the least. I wouldn't be too sure. 

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