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phil nw.

Model Output Discussions 12z 01/06/2017

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Looked at gfs 18z with a wry smile this evening, is it me or does the Azores high look like its obsessed with ridging towards the UK all the way thru the run. Or Maybe i m just seeing things. Lol 

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Not a great deal to add to what has already been said for the next few days from this morning's gfs. Without entering into another round of 'what will the max temp be' this weekend suffice it to say much of England will be warm or very warm with perhaps NI and NW Scotland copping some intermittent light rain

So on to next week. This weekends high cell drifts away to the east and thanks to our ever present upper low to the SW the next ridging from the Azores is forced to circumvent this and encroach from the west. Thus by Tuesday we have a new high cell centred to the NW of Ireland which is also in the process of drifting east. A continuation of the pleasant weather but different airmass characteristics means lower temps not that much above the average and possibly even below average for a time over to the east.

gfs_ptype_slp_eur3_18.thumb.png.82f36e8406b6cc26b586b90311f8364a.png

So now to the $64,000 question of the weekend. The gfs still has this quite a messy affair, The high pressure is under a two pronged attack on Friday from the energy arriving from the NW and our ubiquitous low to the south west. Fronts do encroach from the NW bringing light rain to many areas.

gfs_z500a_natl_31.thumb.png.9d84e44f1d6a8776e1c6966809bcf06a.pnggfs_ptype_slp_eur3_31.thumb.png.830e9d24232d935ca94fd18aae156fbe.png

This quickly gives way to some renewed ridging before a breakdown occurs Sunday/Monday with a thundery low approaching from the south. Much caution required here as the latter part of the week is a long way from being sorted with the EC46, for one, making the trough far more influential

gfs_ptype_slp_eur3_41.thumb.png.5f0b976771451728cbbb69ba0f881235.png

Edited by knocker

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The next week looks outstanding all in all. A little cooler midweek but the sun will be shining most of the time for the east and south by the looks of it with the high pushing over again midweek8) 

Edited by Summer 1976

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1 minute ago, Summer 1976 said:

The next week looks outstanding all in all. A little cooler midweek but the sun will be shining most of the time by the looks of it with the high pushing over again midweek8)

Tuesday not great 17° cloudy

fax120s.gif?1

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Where are you getting 17c from just out of interest? I can't see any forecast lower than 21c for Tuesday in your neck of the woods. The front shown is a weak affair and probably won't be much more than a band of cloud.

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ECM goes for a heat reload towards the end of next week, before a very rapid descent into cool, wet and unsettled by Sunday!


From this on Friday:

Recm1681.gifRecm1682.gif

To this on Sunday:

Recm2161.gifRecm2162.gif

The Icelandic low develops and dives SE on quite an unusual trajectory. Not saying this is wrong, just it will certainly need ironing out. Lots of uncertainty, mirrored by the GFS ensembles:

gefsens850london0.png

Quite a spread of outcomes appearing only 3/4 days from now. 

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24 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Where are you getting 17c from just out of interest? I can't see any forecast lower than 21c for Tuesday in your neck of the woods. The front shown is a weak affair and probably won't be much more than a band of cloud.

 

17c seems a fair assessment for the area in question and in fact large areas of the UK 

ukmaxtemp.png

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The ecm is not dissimilar to the gfs but predictable makes more of the trough next weekend and by 12z Saturday has the low over N. Scotland and a showery NW airstream over the UK.

ecm_mslp_uv850_natl_10.thumb.png.0c223877a9b5c30245ba4e172acd0523.pngecm_z500_anom_natl_9.thumb.png.6f9e0647e9d8439c249d6f5edc0e8f4a.png

Edited by knocker

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32 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Where are you getting 17c from just out of interest? I can't see any forecast lower than 21c for Tuesday in your neck of the woods. The front shown is a weak affair and probably won't be much more than a band of cloud.

maybe this shows those values

https://www.netweather.tv/secure/cgi-bin/premium.pl?action=gfs;sess=8d5490c5d8d40d3eb6dd264890a1e8bf

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20 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

17c seems a fair assessment for the area in question and in fact large areas of the UK 

ukmaxtemp.png

Fair enough - if referring to that then 17c could be possible I guess... 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/gcqkrv0ge

I grabbed the 21c from the MetO forecast. One of them has to be right surely! :D

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Pre Dawn 850mb chart from AEMET looking good for widespread heat on Sunday. looks like the usual spots to get the highest temps. Forecast for Low humidity and DP levels in Lee of high ground in NE Wales and NE Engalnd would indicate some sort of fohn  effect which could induce some locally high temperature readings in these locations to match possibly interior Essex and West of London. Will be good fun monitoring top heat spots.

 C

HIROPME00_48_2.png

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what does the latest ec48 show for july  knocker?

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Who knows what the next two months will hold?

But, on an altogether lighter not, it's that time of year when one of my favourite model-thread typos makes its first appearance; when someone expresses their liking for 'hot Julies'!:D

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So that's the second 06z in a row going for a faster breakdown than the other GFS runs. Funny that.

Overall GFS continues to strongly display low-GLAAM forcing on the pattern by day 9 or 10 onward. Meanwhile ECM has moved away from this with more of a classic 'sweeping past into Scandi' period of low pressure influence and the upstream pattern looking better for bringing about a new push NE of the Azores High to the UK.

So I'd say it's best not to pay too much attention to what the models show beyond next Friday; there are conflicting signals to sort out and in any case it puts you at risk of tainting your enjoyment of the fine weekend with worries about the following one and beyond. Trust me, I know from personal experience :rolleyes::D

With that in mind, I will aim to avoid discussing the longer-term again until Monday at the earliest (unless I manage to forget this pledge... no guarantees I'm afraid!) :)

 

In the nearer term there are still considerable uncertainties beyond the weekend; no two runs agree on the position of the very mild/fairly cool boundary Mon-Wed, with the 06z shifting it north by a hundred miles or so. It serves as the focus for scattered thunderstorms on Mon and then a lot of cloudiness and suppressed temps (high teens at best) Tue-Wed.

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3 hours ago, Frosty. said:

Just enjoy the weekend, it looks an absolute beauty across the southern half of the uk and Monday looks hot too..too often we look too far ahead when there is great weather right in front of us!:D

 

 

:rofl: I'm not sure I can stand any more. Meteorological satire is now officially extinct :shok:

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2 hours ago, carinthian said:

This latest chart ( below ) from ECM at 144t confirms the progress towards a second plume of hot air after this weekend. A rather unusual set up with the main plume moving out of Iberia towards the SW of British Isles. The development of a upper trough from the Azores to the West of Scotland will aid the transfer of heat in 6 to 7 days time , especially up the west side of the British Isles. Expect some real heat this time next week.

 C

ECMOPEU00_144_2.png

A heatwave that will actually include me?! This weekend looks horrific so far 

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40 minutes ago, Ross Andrew Hemphill said:

A heatwave that will actually include me?! This weekend looks horrific so far 

If your lucky Ross we may even have some sunny intervals tomorrow......Ooooooo

Its been like Groundhog Day the past week or so with monotonous greyness and damp to wet weather .

Never mind... Our time will come.

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46 minutes ago, Ross Andrew Hemphill said:

A heatwave that will actually include me?! This weekend looks horrific so far 

Not according to the latest Met Office outlook Ross. They think warm and humid will move north across Western parts later next week and to move erratically eastwards with associated rain followed by the usual cool Atlantic stuff for your neck of the woods.  Hopefully they could be wrong in this particular forecast.

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4 hours ago, geoffw said:

what does the latest ec48 show for july  knocker?

I only have access to the means but for what it's worth the first fortnight of July generally below average temps with the HP to the SW and a westerly upper flow.

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40 minutes ago, knocker said:

I only have access to the means but for what it's worth the first fortnight of July generally below average temps with the HP to the SW and a westerly upper flow.

That's nothing like the met office are saying, they still mention above average temps with very warm and hot spells..and a settled spell through early July!:) this suggests more of a continental pattern rather than Atlantic / oceanic.

Edited by Frosty.

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just for a punt, i reckon the next ridge after this weeks could be 'the one' that produces a lengthy hot spell. we are long overdue for a nationwide hot summer (and not just a hot spell like 2013). all the signals this far are suggesting this might be the year.

im watching the next ridge on the anomaly charts, moving out of north america and heading our way. after the breakdown in about a weeks time or so (the noaa 6-10 dayer still suggests high pressure in control out to day 8 the middle of the period) , so i wouldnt be surprised if the breakdown was put back... but there should be a quieter spell with normal/average conditions before that high builds in by around the end of week 1 in july.

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13 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

just for a punt, i reckon the next ridge after this weeks could be 'the one' that produces a lengthy hot spell. we are long overdue for a nationwide hot summer (and not just a hot spell like 2013). all the signals this far are suggesting this might be the year.

im watching the next ridge on the anomaly charts, moving out of north america and heading our way. after the breakdown in about a weeks time or so (the noaa 6-10 dayer still suggests high pressure in control out to day 8 the middle of the period) , so i wouldnt be surprised if the breakdown was put back... but there should be a quieter spell with normal/average conditions before that high builds in by around the end of week 1 in july.

Keep talking like that and the only thing that'll have a breakdown will be me.

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20 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

just for a punt, i reckon the next ridge after this weeks could be 'the one' that produces a lengthy hot spell. we are long overdue for a nationwide hot summer (and not just a hot spell like 2013). all the signals this far are suggesting this might be the year.

im watching the next ridge on the anomaly charts, moving out of north america and heading our way. after the breakdown in about a weeks time or so (the noaa 6-10 dayer still suggests high pressure in control out to day 8 the middle of the period) , so i wouldnt be surprised if the breakdown was put back... but there should be a quieter spell with normal/average conditions before that high builds in by around the end of week 1 in july.

Anomalies aren't pointing to that I'm afraid its all down hill towards a colder, wetter than average first half of July.

anom.JPG

Edited by 40*C

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