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Model Output Discussions 12z 01/06/2017

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5 minutes ago, Ice Man 85 said:

That ECM run is the stuff of nightmares. Autumn can't come soon enough.

You could go to northern Scotland next week:D

I think you are in the minority, most on here like summery weather in summer..a taste of what the med gets is very welcome!..hope the Ecm 12z is right about prolonging the heat!

Edited by Frosty.
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Well all I'd say is you get your preference for about 90% of the year! :D can us heat fans take the other 10% and enjoy?? The ECM looks wonderful, and if the heat holds until Monday/Tuesday, our first 90f of the year looks a real possibility.

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Apart from the obvious bonus of some very good weather this weekend the ecm evolution is certainly interesting.

At T120 it has a cut off upper low away to the SW with HP ridging NE across France and Germany thus some pleasant WAA over the UK. This upper low in conjunction with instability over Iberia forms a shallow surface low to the SW

ecm_z500_anom_natl_6.thumb.png.496cd09d6555ee978629efba26c8242b.pngecm_mslp_uv850_natl_6.thumb.png.85044aba3edc5b10e8f90cb478e9e153.png

 

From here the upper trough to the SW phases in with a new trough arriving from the NW resulting in the surface low tracking slowly north and establishing a general area of low pressure to the west and NW and pushing some inclement weather into NI and Scotland and the north of England.

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This is the signal for a pattern change as Atlantic systems make inroads from the west.

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None of this precludes some pretty nifty temps in the south and some impressive WAA and on the Thursday widespread temps in the range 31-33C are on offer with thundery outbreaks drifting north from France. All of this of course comes with a severe health warning as it is unlikely to be around for long.

Edited by knocker
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Just the minority of the people who post on here (which amounts to about a dozen people). You might enjoy it but those of use with health conditions certainly won't. We don't have the luxury of air conditioning in this country after all which means no respite whatsoever. Wish Europe would keep its sodding weather to itself.

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24 minutes ago, Ice Man 85 said:

That ECM run is the stuff of nightmares. Autumn can't come soon enough.

I don't mind heatwaves as long as we get some decent storms......ecm is still showing plumes ,gfs is a bore fest still. Let's enjoy summer ,before you know it Autumn will be here as this year is racing by:yahoo:

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3 minutes ago, Ice Man 85 said:

Just the minority of the people who post on here (which amounts to about a dozen people). You might enjoy it but those of use with health conditions certainly won't. We don't have the luxury of air conditioning in this country after all which means no respite whatsoever. Wish Europe would keep its sodding weather to itself.

Where do you live?

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2 minutes ago, Ice Man 85 said:

Skelmersdale

Then I wouldn't worry! It's not even going to get sweltering up that way anyway, and isn't hot most of the time! :D

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3 minutes ago, Ice Man 85 said:

Skelmersdale

Well according to the ecm you may well get away with 20-22C Tuesday-Thurs with rain thrown in on Wednesday. But it will change in the next few days so I wouldn't start fretting just yet

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13 minutes ago, Ice Man 85 said:

Just the minority of the people who post on here (which amounts to about a dozen people). You might enjoy it but those of use with health conditions certainly won't. We don't have the luxury of air conditioning in this country after all which means no respite whatsoever. Wish Europe would keep its sodding weather to itself.

This is surely for the Model Watching Moans and Ramps thread ?.

 

My preference for a decent HP influenced spell (but above all a DRY spell next week) is entirely and selfishly Glastonbury based, but I'm not getting any consistency right now across different models, about whether summery conditions will last in the South (and SW) beyond about Wednesday (21st).

The lack of clarity about how the inconsistencies will resolve themselves is hugely frustrating. But please spare us low pressure incursions from a SW direction, that way mudbaths lie,

Edited by William of Walworth
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1 minute ago, knocker said:

Well according to the ecm you may well get away with 20-22C Tuesday-Thurs with rain thrown in on Wednesday. But it will change in the next few days so I wouldn't start fretting just yet

I wish that ECM model used simple to read numbers like the GFS does at least. I have no idea what Geopots and T850s are. 22 I can cope with. It was 24 here today apparently (every single weather site is different 20 on bbc to 26 on weatherunderground/weatherchannel) and that wasn't too bad.

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20-27c ideal for me at this time of the year. Interesting ECM, prolonging the mild weather with thundery breakdown potential. I mean I like the colder weather but certainly not at this time of the year, even in winter I only like the cold if it can produce a bit of snow. In fact snow followed by a period of hard frosts would be ideal but how often does that happen in this country? Not a lot.

ECM1-168.gif

ECM0-168.gif

ECM1-192.gif

ECM0-192.gif

Edited by snowray
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Evening all. The cards are on the table tonight ,the gfs suite shows cooler fresher conditions with little if any rain and very benign conditions the Ecm shows heat, humidity, severe thunderstorms and plenty of action.......Now what card do you wanna play:rofl::yahoo:

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h850t850eu.png

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How big a part, if any, is Scotland playing in this heatwave? I really don't see anymore than 22C here in C Scotland, and I'm pretty disappointed considering it's apparently a UK-wide hot spell.

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10 minutes ago, Ross Andrew Hemphill said:

How big a part, if any, is Scotland playing in this heatwave? I really don't see anymore than 22C here in C Scotland, and I'm pretty disappointed considering it's apparently a UK-wide hot spell.

EGPF_2017061412_tx_240.thumb.png.87e0c867c7f35cf394340d0d93db43bd.png

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21 minutes ago, MP-R said:

2005 was also a hot one, 33C the maximum I think.

33.1c was achieved in London on the 19th, the same day North Yorkshire was hit by incredible flash flooding. 

If we can manage to sustain a southerly into next week, it may well be challenged! Flaming June is here. 

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1 hour ago, Mark wheeler said:

Looks nice on the 18z output so far to my untrained eye .

IMG_7525.PNG

High pressure slightly further east would pull more heat up straight from south southern france/Spain r lasses dad has apartment in benalmedina,southern Spain been in high 30s this week.

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The 00z continues to reinforce the hot weather this weekend and next week. Temps this weekend progged between 26 and 29 celcius in the south Saturday and then likely to breach 30 Sunday, perhaps a 31 or 32 degrees on Monday. The high then meanders across and to the east of us generating a south East flow across the country. 850s between 10 and 15c the whole week. Temps on the gfs for next week very conservative I would imagine given the heat from the weekend and strong sunshine. Gfs suggests nationwide between 21 and 25 but if this run come off as it suggests then between 25 and 30 nationwide with a likelihood of 30c being breached somewhere in the UK on consecutive days from Sunday through to next Friday.

 

All subject to change but looking absolutely fantastic if you like heat and not so fantastic if you don't! 

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Some off topic overnight posts have had to go, Just Model discussion in here please.

Thanks.

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Just briefly touching on the weekend before moving on to developments next week leading up to Glastonbury. (excellently covered in detail by J10 of course). the high cell soon becomes dominant thus some fine warm weather for most The exception being Scotland where sporadic rain is likely. Also a fair geographic temp spread with the highest temps in general SE of a line Humber to Dorset where 24-26C is likely rising perhaps to 28C by Monday. Elsewhere much less with the spread 16-22C.

Thereafter the interest develops. By T144 the upper trough in the Atlantic is starting to disrupt creating a large area of surface low pressure to the SW and pushing the high cell NE. which initiates a cooler (relative) SE flow over the UK

gfs_z500a_natl_25.thumb.png.b517ce60b1b1b415fa6af0eb9ac3d467.pnggfs_ptype_slp_eur3_25.thumb.png.53f1052ec381df534a006ee11cd06ca8.png

What happens next is yet to be resolved. Will the Atlantic fronts encroach? Will thundery activity saunter up from France or indeed will the high cell hold sway? The gfs has this position on Friday

gfs_ptype_slp_eur3_35.thumb.png.eeb75c34fd2312bed4ab8ea247d32e96.png

So in a nutshell a pretty good week ahead with some quite high temps in parts of England with a slow transition next week which is long way from being resolved. Remaining very dry.

gfs_tprecip_uk2_41.thumb.png.d3569c509976e9c84c86a4d5343829b7.png

Edited by knocker
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Really hotting up across the south during the weekend with prolonged sunshine as high pressure builds in, temperatures reaching 30 celsius in the s / se by sunday and very warm for the rest of England and Wales too.:)

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DCSWuOIXYAAFL0M.jpg

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10 hours ago, Ross Andrew Hemphill said:

How big a part, if any, is Scotland playing in this heatwave? I really don't see anymore than 22C here in C Scotland, and I'm pretty disappointed considering it's apparently a UK-wide hot spell.

Don't worry it'll be UK-wide thunderstorms in two-week's time and you can guarentee our area won't see any of it! :rofl:

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