Model Output Discussions 12z 01/06/2017

[Summer Sun]

UKMO extended looks better than ECM at D7

ECM starts to take the high north whereas UKMO keeps it over most of the UK deflecting any lows north of the UK

[blizzard81]

Not surprised at the lack of comments this morning. Unfortunately, the trend that was started on yesterday morning's ecm op has gained more traction this morning. Gfs playing catch-up again. 

[Captain Shortwave]

7 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Not surprised at the lack of comments this morning. Unfortunately, the trend that was started on yesterday morning's ecm op has gained more traction this morning. Gfs playing catch-up again. 

ECM op not supported by its ensemble suite

      

To be honest the ECM op doesn't look like the GFS or ensemble suite with the high going much further north and allowing the jetstream to undercut this and move into central Europe. Like last nights ECM op it looks over the top with building a high latitude block to our north/north east. At this moment before we get consensus between the ECM and GFS suites which have completely different longwave patterns in week 2 then we can't really call things either way.

 

[blizzard81]

8 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:

ECM op not supported by its ensemble suite

      

To be honest the ECM op doesn't look like the GFS or ensemble suite with the high going much further north and allowing the jetstream to undercut this and move into central Europe. Like last nights ECM op it looks over the top with building a high latitude block to our north/north east. At this moment before we get consensus between the ECM and GFS suites which have completely different longwave patterns in week 2 then we can't really call things either way.

 

Fair enough but we all know that the ecm ops do have a habit of picking up on the correct trend, especially at the 7 to 8 day time frame. 

[Scorcher]

1 hour ago, blizzard81 said:

Fair enough but we all know that the ecm ops do have a habit of picking up on the correct trend, especially at the 7 to 8 day time frame. 

Do they? They've been wrong a lot this year so far at that range.

The most glaring example was the late May warm spell when the ECM was showing a cold northerly at 7 to 8 days out, and we ended up with very warm southerlies.

[blizzard81]

1 hour ago, Scorcher said:

Do they? They've been wrong a lot this year so far at that range.

The most glaring example was the late May warm spell when the ECM was showing a cold northerly at 7 to 8 days out, and we ended up with very warm southerlies.

Of course it goes without saying that the ecm is not always correct, that would be impossible. Nothing is fool proof. I do believe however that the ecm op is generally superior to the other model op runs when picking up on a new trend. If the ecm op run picks up on a trend and sticks with it for two or three consecutive runs even though it's ensembles do not agree, we should all sit up and listen. 

[Frosty.]

It's another nice summery day across the s/se today with temps comfortably into the 20's celsius and France is hot today, 30c in Paris for example but southern England still looks good this afternoon.

[weatherguru14]

38 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

It's another nice summery day across the s/se today with temps comfortably into the 20's celsius and France is hot today, 30c in Paris for example but southern England still looks good this afternoon.

How about showing a weather map from the midlands north?.. are you still going for  a decent prolonged spell of summer weather for most of the UK? Its rained most days in June here  the weather as gone to pot in most of the UK .And  the charts are all over the shop right now.

[Frosty.]

34 minutes ago, weatherguru14 said:

How about showing a weather map from the midlands north?.. are you still going for  a decent prolonged spell of summer weather for most of the UK? Its rained most days in June here  the weather as gone to pot in most of the UK .And  the charts are all over the shop right now.

I'm just pointing out there is some summery weather around, hard cheese if you don't like it!

[Guest]

52 minutes ago, weatherguru14 said:

How about showing a weather map from the midlands north?.. are you still going for  a decent prolonged spell of summer weather for most of the UK? Its rained most days in June here  the weather as gone to pot in most of the UK .And  the charts are all over the shop right now.

I think we've a pleasant enough week ahead. Granted, we'll have more in the way of cloud cover compared to areas further south and east, but it should be pleasant and much drier than the week just gone.

Questions remain over next weekend and beyond with the high pressure retrogressing west and allowing a cooler airstream to dominate rather than the high pressure staying over the UK and drawing warmer air from the south. I know which scenario I'd prefer but with the way the output is at the moment, who knows?

[blizzard81]

52 minutes ago, weatherguru14 said:

How about showing a weather map from the midlands north?.. are you still going for  a decent prolonged spell of summer weather for most of the UK? Its rained most days in June here  the weather as gone to pot in most of the UK .And  the charts are all over the shop right now.

Indeed. Bully for those down south. Autumnal for us up north. Now I know how the Scots feel when they just miss out on the summer heat when the Atlantic still niggles away at them while the rest of us bathe in the sun. 

[SteveB]

Equally in Winter when they get plenty of snow, you don't here me moaning when we miss out.

Best keep quiet if you've got nothing constructive to say. Nothing worse than moaning whining people throwing their toys out of the pram when they don't get the weather they want. Moan in the moaning thread and keep this one clear for model related posts.

Edited June 11, 2017 by SteveB

[weatherguru14]

23 minutes ago, Steel City Skies said:

I think we've a pleasant enough week ahead. Granted, we'll have more in the way of cloud cover compared to areas further south and east, but it should be pleasant and much drier than the week just gone.

Questions remain over next weekend and beyond with the high pressure retrogressing west and allowing a cooler airstream to dominate rather than the high pressure staying over the UK and drawing warmer air from the south. I know which scenario I'd prefer but with the way the output is at the moment, who knows?

But what annoys me is people screaming summer is coming back like Darren Bent and  it keeps getting pushed back and back.. he claimed its  going to be hot at the weekend now.. But like you say its the  high is going to regress.. Monday and Tuesday look unsettled and Friday for a lot of the UK. where is this summer they keep predicting.. why does every summer the weather forecasters  get it SOOO wrong...

Frosty is trying to be positive with the  charts and  that's nice.. But what I  want is  proper correct   weather predictions.. Not constant promises of better weather when time after time after time.. IT DOESNT HAPPEN.

Edited June 11, 2017 by weatherguru14

[Frosty.]

2 minutes ago, SteveB said:

Equally in Winter when they get plenty of snow, you don't here me moaning when we miss out.

Best keep quiet if you've got nothing constructive to say. Nothing worse than moaning whining people throwing their toys out of the pram when they don't get the weather they want. Moan in the moaning thread and keep this one clear for model related posts.

Agreed, I try to be constructive and upbeat but there is far too much moaning again today..it's the uk, I don't know what some people expect..a Mediterranean climate!

[Methuselah]

1 minute ago, weatherguru14 said:

But what annoys me is people screaming summer is coming back like Darren Bent and  it keeps getting pushed back and back.. he claimed its  going to be hot at the weekend now.. But like you say its the  high is going to regress.. Monday and Tuesday look unsettled and Friday for a lot of the UK. where is this summer they keep predicting.. why does every summer the weather forecasters  get it SOOO wrong...

Frosty is trying to be positive with the  charts and  that's nice.. But what I  want is  proper correct   weather predictions.. Not constant promises of better weather when time after time after time.. IT DOESNT HAPPEN.

How daft, expecting a footballer to forecast the weather, WG...? And,at the end of the day, it is only the weather!

[weatherguru14]

1 minute ago, Ed Stone said:

How daft, expecting a footballer to forecast the weather, WG...? And,at the end of the day, it is only the weather!

Its only the weather based on biasness... the facts are June for most of the UK as bet wet and we are nearly half way through.. there is no sign of anything settling for most of the UK. so whh are having this constant nonsense summer is coming back. when its going to last a couple of days at least.. of course its only the weather.. But  people enjoy the summer months. we do no enjoy constantly being mislead and duked..

Do not claim we are in fror long dry spell and the weather is getting  better when its not for  most of the UK..Its fine  if you get the odd error in the weather prediction. But is seems to happen every year..

[SteveB]

It not even like your from the South, you as far North as the poeple moaning. 

Keep posting Frosty, love Reading your posts

Edited June 11, 2017 by SteveB

[SteveB]

16 minutes ago, weatherguru14 said:

But what annoys me is people screaming summer is coming back like Darren Bent and  it keeps getting pushed back and back.. he claimed its  going to be hot at the weekend now.. But like you say its the  high is going to regress.. Monday and Tuesday look unsettled and Friday for a lot of the UK. where is this summer they keep predicting.. why does every summer the weather forecasters  get it SOOO wrong...

Frosty is trying to be positive with the  charts and  that's nice.. But what I  want is  proper correct   weather predictions.. Not constant promises of better weather when time after time after time.. IT DOESNT HAPPEN.

That's what living in the UK is all about buddie, if you want consistency move to the tropics. We have a temperate climate which means its very changeable and that's why the models struggle.

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

I don't think it would be right to be moaning about HP being too far west if I'm correct about this chart

[Frosty.]

26 minutes ago, SteveB said:

 

Keep posting Frosty, love Reading your posts

Cheers Steve..I will

[Singularity]

  

 

 

GFS and GEM agree upon a fine weekend for the southern half of the UK while the northern half is troubled by areas of cloud and even a few showers in the case of GFS. 

Then we yet again see GFS show the impact of its extreme tanking GLAAM projections as the ridge gets pulled west by Monday with a rather cool northerly by Tuesday. I'm not even going to post the charts as they don't seem worth the effort.

GEM on the other hand... well, this is arguably just as implausible but I would say that's in terms of the details rather than the broad pattern; odds are a broad 'heat low' won't drift up along such an ideal path from the plume that's extended hundreds of miles west of Iberia by the end of the weekend (an unusual sight but GFS shows this too; the ridge across the UK is orientated just right for that to occur). BUT that doesn't make the charts not worth posting because this version of events is seriously entertaining to look at ;

  

  

 

C'mon ECM... you must be tempted to have a go at illustrating a sensational plume event? 

Given how the 00z ECM went by comparison, it seems it really comes down to how far west the troughs drop down across C./E. Europe, as when this is as far east as GEM shows, the ridge follows suit, and then the door is opened for a low to develop on the western plume periphery which for once is not aligned with anywhere in the UK.

Who's betting we end up seeing the pattern adjust so far east that the classic 'only just with quick breakdown' plume events takes place after all? 

[mb018538]

Always amazes me that the atlantic is roaring away most of the time to not let high pressure build in....then when it does eventually get there, the atlantic goes quiet as a mouse and the high can just back west without opposition.

Seems we still have a wide range of outcomes on the table, with nothing really nailed down yet. Will have to keep an eye out for developments.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Well, I hope UKMO is wrong as Saturday looks ugly away from the SE

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?ech=6&carte=1021

[mb018538]

ECM is a bit 'meh' tonight....neither one thing or the other really. Lots of variance still showing between all models.

[Singularity]

 

ECM is as quick with the low into Scandi as UKMO, but thankfully further east. The UKMO run is a shocker and probably related to the model considering the MJO becoming active in the tropical Atlantic in a big way just as GEFS has been predicting for a number of days now. ECM and GEM continue to vote against this.

Generally I can see the broad idea being a low passing by to the NE of the UK by a certain, impossible to be sure of distance Sat/Sun and then the ridge building back in from the west; UKMO could still go that way but with more LP influence during its closest approach, but the details are up in the air right now - a total nightmare if you're having to try and produce anything more than very broad-scale temperature guidance at this range!

Hah... dark humour from ECM as it's day 10 chart depicts some unpleasant deja vu with an unusually deep low becoming slow-moving S. of Iceland 

Not as windy as this weekend has been but... wait, why am I considering details with a chart this far out in time?