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Model Output Discussions 12z 01/06/2017


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Posted
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK

This upper wind flow NH chart from GFS at day 10 offers some hope for some improved summer weather for the UK, especially SE Britain. First time for a while we see a buckle in the profile jet crossing N America towards Europe with a likely rise of pressure with the resultant surface flow across Southern Britain to become more continental, which can only mean good news for the second half of August , hopefully for you guys !

 C

 C

GFSOPNH00_240_22.png

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

It looks like once we are through the unseasonably cool windy and wet midweek period with the strong Nly flow and north sea low / trough , our weather becomes more summery in nature with the azores high building in across the south with much more in the way of dry, sunny and warm weather, especially further s / e / se...so, at last some decent usable august weather looks to be on the way from later next week onwards according to the GEFS 00z mean.:)

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Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
13 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

u.anom.30.5S-5N.gif

The basic reasoning for that is that despite moving towards El Nino the La Nina imprint from winter (waning as we entered early summer) has persisted and indeed as we reached mid July it returned with some vengance. 

Although the signal did weaken (the lagged effect being why i expected something more seasonal around the 10th) we can now see that the stronger trades are arguably more widespread in the coming forecast and essentially causing any MJO wave that wants to get going to hit a brick wall. 

Hurricanes can change the pattern (for better or worse) but in terms of a background signal i don't think we have an especially good one given that logically you'd imagine stronger widespread enhanced trades will cause lower GLAAM and a flatter jet stream. 

That the location of anomalously strong trades is shifting, and with some anomalously weak trades developing either side, implies a shift in the longwave pattern (a key component of which Carinthian highlighted over the US earlier) so we have a shot at escaping the current lingering trough setup at least for a time.

The pace of this being what the models are struggling to resolve. It seems up until yesterday morning they were a bit too fast, then yesterday evening they turned too slow, and now we have a fairly realistic looking compromise with the ridge having to fight for its place a bit Thu-Sat before finally gaining proper access to at least southern UK by Sun/Mon.

Edited by Singularity
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Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire

Amazing warmth pumping into the Arctic at the back end of the ecm. Plus 12 uppers to the north west of Greenland! 

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

We can clearly see the general improvement in the UK weather beyond next wednesday on the Ecm 00z ensemble mean as pressure rises, winds become lighter with more in the way of sunshine and warmth, at least across southern uk.:)

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

The EPS mean anomalies in the 10-15 day period are not enthusiastic over Azores influence and are more inclined for the trough to the NW being the major player,

With the general pattern of low pressure over the Arctic and trough Alaska and ridge central Canada, and thus a fairly strong westerly upper flow across the Atlantic it portends unsettled weather for the UK with temps around average or maybe a tad below. As ever in these situations there will be a N/S bias.

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Posted
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
1 hour ago, blizzard81 said:

Amazing warmth pumping into the Arctic at the back end of the ecm. Plus 12 uppers to the north west of Greenland! 

Let's hope this doesn't verify!

On the other hand the 6z shows nice cooling occurring over Greenland as the run progresses. A sign that we are moving towards autumn.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

This is pleasing, some heat on the Gfs 6z!:D

Overall more good than bad across southern uk after midweek with plenty of high pressure / ridging bringing spells of warm sunshine and a chance of some hot and humid continental incursions with thunderstorms later, especially for the s / se..in a nutshell, generally becoming a north-south split, more changeable across northern uk but at least the charts post next wednesday generally have a more summery look to them, particularly further south.:)

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Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl

Wow, 17° in August, looks good that if it was March!

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Edited by I remember Atlantic 252
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
28 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Wow, 17° in August, looks good that if it was March!

image.png.ab3dda73865479d376683b39af07a3b2.png

Just one chart, there are plenty which are warmer, especially further south!:)

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Posted
  • Location: Marton
  • Location: Marton

I don't think UKMO is the best forecast. We go from a slack NE on Tuesday to a stronger NE Wednesday and by Friday there's a strong westerly blowing. Mindyou a lot will depend on where the fronts lie. This mornings didn't look too bad.

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Posted
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
6 minutes ago, Matthew. said:

I don't think UKMO is the best forecast. We go from a slack NE on Tuesday to a stronger NE Wednesday and by Friday there's a strong westerly blowing. Mindyou a lot will depend on where the fronts lie. This mornings didn't look too bad.

The westerlies also seem to rule on the GFS 12z from the end of next week onwards.

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Just a couple of comments on the 12z gfs

1. The large area of cooler air over the Arctic and northern Atlantic with the boundary still far too far south for us .

2. Quite notable WAA into central canada courtesy of the Aleutian upper low and the strong ridge into the former

But just to reiterate this just an observation

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Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL

ECM looks OK, the azores high and trough from hell really slugging it out with the high generally in charge for the south..i know knocker,the meto and others are mentioning the N/S split and its pretty clear the further south one heads after midweek the better for warmth/settled, the further north and west the wetter.

Although its not bad we can see by day 10 another attack from the troughs lining up to the North west, i do wonder what  is fueling this  almost constant barrage of lows, its literally one after the other queing up..

I do believe in the law of avergaes though so fully expect a decent spell of high pressure in the next 4 to 6 weeks..

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

The idea of a mid Atlantic trough is one that the anomalies have been playing around with in the ext period, particularly the EPS It could potentially alter the current suggested evolution if the pattern became a tad more amplified and the trough dug a fair way south with little west-east momentum. It is one way of promoting WAA from the south into the UK. Against that of course is that the amplification does not occur, or at least not any great extent, and the trough continues to edge east with perhaps just the south east benefiting from the warmer air. Just saying.

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Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

What a joy it would be to have high pressure anchored just to the east and a trough to the west stalling and disrupting enabling very warm / hot air from France to waft north..that's along the lines of what the Ecm 12z shows at day 10.:)

As things stand we are heading for a north-south split as northwestsnow described so well.

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Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
  • Weather Preferences: Enjoy the weather, you can't take it with you 😎
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:

ECM looks OK, the azores high and trough from hell really slugging it out with the high generally in charge for the south..i know knocker,the meto and others are mentioning the N/S split and its pretty clear the further south one heads after midweek the better for warmth/settled, the further north and west the wetter.

Although its not bad we can see by day 10 another attack from the troughs lining up to the North west, i do wonder what  is fueling this  almost constant barrage of lows, its literally one after the other queing up..

I do believe in the law of avergaes though so fully expect a decent spell of high pressure in the next 4 to 6 weeks..

To Be honest I don't know what you are expecting ,this is the British Isles come Summer or Winter expect the Mighty Atlantic Ocean to have its say, its always has done and always will:)

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Posted
  • Location: manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Summer
  • Location: manchester

It has to be said but the 18z GFS run tonight is overall the most vomit inducing run i've seen for any late part of summertime and I wouldn't even call it a pub run, I'd call it a 'summer is over' run.

Following a brief flirt with the Azores next week, by next Sunday another low comes barging in from the Atlantic followed by a deep dartboard low behind it which then spends that week swinging right across the UK leaving the door open for even more lows to swing in and complete their little mission in ruining our season.

dartboard.png

Edited by 40*C
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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

In general last night's anomalies indicated no significant change in the 14 day period, Still perhaps the Azores becoming more influential next weekend. beginning of next week before the suggested pattern in the 10-15 period of low pressure over the Arctic and associated trough to the NW of the UK and the Azores anchored to the south west. Ergo a westerly upper flow and, well, you know the rest of the spiel...................

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And on that note the likely weather this week is no doubt quite familiar as well. The transition begins today with the shallow low arriving around the Hebrides and associated fronts tracking south east down the country.

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Then with the Azores to the west ridging north and the HP to the East following suite the upper trough sinks slowly over the UK and a general surface low pressure are is established over western Europe for three days with a more organized low nipping north east into the the North Sea, Thus a showery quite cool few days albeit not without sunny intervals with the surface wind veering northerly as the week progresses. By 00z Thursday the low in the North Sea is rapidly becoming a non feature ans only just still effecting the south east as the Azores ridges NE and briefly becomes more influential.

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I say briefly because by 00z Saturday the ridge has been squashed once again by the energy.trough(s) arriving from the north west with fronts beginning to ingress Scotland. The 850mb temp and wind field for that time illustrates quite well the transitional area between the cold and warm air(relatively speaking) and why small changes in the phasing of both (periods when one is more dominant than the other) can alter the evolution quite a lot the further it goes.

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But this is a pretty fast moving pattern and after some quite messy ridging over Sunday the next trough is approaching from the NW/W by Monday with the jet not in a favorable position. Best left here as even at this range this will be subject to change.

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Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
9 hours ago, ANYWEATHER said:

To Be honest I don't know what you are expecting ,this is the British Isles come Summer or Winter expect the Mighty Atlantic Ocean to have its say, its always has done and always will:)

Erm, well i think i can can count on one hand the number of warm days here since the end of June so perhaps im hoping for something more seeing as its summer afterall?

Onto the 00z runs, still signs that the azores high is trying to ridge in but its the familiar tale of the jet squashing it not allowing sustained settled weather..

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
24 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Erm, well i think i can can count on one hand the number of warm days here since the end of June so perhaps im hoping for something more seeing as its summer afterall?

Onto the 00z runs, still signs that the azores high is trying to ridge in but its the familiar tale of the jet squashing it not allowing sustained settled weather..

To be honest, its reaching the point when I would just be happy to see occasional ridging bringing some pleasantly warm and dry respite from the atlantic band's of rain followed by sunshine and showers pattern we have been stuck with in recent weeks..still hopeful something better will turn up during the second half of august..it's not towel throwing in time just yet.:)

Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Marton
  • Location: Marton

UKMO and ECM certainly on the same theme next week with the weather making a vast improvement for the east by Thursday. But then we pick up a notable westerly by Friday with Low to the north and high to our south. A well renowned August pattern. As for throwing the towel don't do that until the end of September.

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

The ecm on much the same theme but varying in detail and pushing the trough influence rather more at the end but there is so much fluidity in this pattern detail in the latter part of the ten day run is always subject to inter run variations.

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Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

Let's be honest it looks rubbish - this settled spell hasn't materialised again, the Atlantic and the jet are just too strong still for any sustained settled weather. The 00z runs don't fill you with much optimism.

Let's just hurry up and get summer over with now, it's been so disappointing since just befor the middle of July.

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Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl

This mornings models show just how frustrating the pattern is for any chance of getting anything more than brief spells of something warmer and brighter.

The NH view at days 4 then 5 show how the Azores ridging is quickly flattened by the next surge of the Jet from upstream-UK charts here but they all show the same.

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which just returns us to a rather uninspiring westerly upper flow.

The continual feed south east off the Canadian/Greenland trough has done us no favours these last few weeks that's for sure.

Edited by phil nw.
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