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Model Output Discussions 12z 01/06/2017


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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean looks better than the 00z longer term..could be a spell of summery weather on the way, at least further south.:)

ECMAVGEU12_168_1.png

ECMAVGEU12_192_1.png

ECMAVGEU12_216_1.png

ECMAVGEU12_240_1.png

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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
49 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean looks better than the 00z longer term..could be a spell of summery weather on the way, at least further south.:)

ECMAVGEU12_168_1.png

ECMAVGEU12_192_1.png

ECMAVGEU12_216_1.png

ECMAVGEU12_240_1.png

I would guess the ECM ens have unwobbled, based on that!!

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The Ecm 00z looks better than yesterday, a welcome long overdue return of summery conditions would be the result, at least across the southern half of the uk from later next week onwards!:)

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216_mslp500.png

216_mslp850uk.png

 

 

 

240_mslp500.png

Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

Quite unusually, all 3 main ops on the same page. Generally improving, a small disturbance early next week, then settling down for the end of the week with potentially a very good weekend to come away from the far north. 

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Apart from the detail of the low NW of Scotland at the end of next week the ecm is in overall agreement with the gfs One thing , hopefully, the deconstruction of the trough signals the end of the dangerous heat in southern Europe.

ecm_z500a_5d_natl_7.thumb.png.9db3cf96460ec1ffeff021a5d03e2c36.pngecm_t850a_5d_natl_8.thumb.png.11d7d201e3b9fe4438aa0d382562f22a.png

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

 hopefully, the deconstruction of the trough 

What on earth is that in plain English knocker, please?

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Posted
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
12 hours ago, carinthian said:

The dominant feature on the NH charts this summer has been the persist and strong Pacific high off the west coast of USA /Canada. Third summer in a row that has produced very high temperatures and drought conditions, especially for the usual maritime climates of Oregan, Washington and British Columbia. The various charts at day 10 continue with this theme. As a result the jet stream is on a much more southerly track for high summer for both North America and the North Atlantic. So NW Europe is likely to remain on the cool side, especially the British Isles with the real heat still locked in Southern Europe and Western States of USA/ Canada. With little warmth flowing into the high Arctic , a speedy cool down will soon likely start here in the  next few weeks.

 C

ECMOPNH12_240_2.png

GFSOPNH12_240_22.png

Following on from the above post, this latest day 10 (850mb differential temp ) picture from ECM still shows much the same. Cool for much of NW Europe/ Scandinavia and also a tempering of the extreme heat in Southern Europe. Also note the cooler upper temps across much of the USA apart from again the heat retention in the NW states, particularly British Columbia across the border where the the Pacific high block has been such a strong feature for much of the summer. Not much sign of the NH jet buckling this month so far.

 C

ECMOPNH00_240_34.png

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
15 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

 hopefully, the deconstruction of the trough 

What on earth is that in plain English knocker, please?

Well in my parlance John it often occurs when the eastward movement of the  upper trough is held up and the enery (I assume) tends to split the trough often leading to a cut off upper low. Of course this may well be meteorologically incorrect. :)

gfs_z500a_natl_17.thumb.png.e0250bc056fc7402dca565b3260b548d.pnggfs_z500a_natl_22.thumb.png.20b576d742bc6243ddcf86cb448b09f2.png

 

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
21 minutes ago, knocker said:

Well in my parlance John it often occurs when the eastward movement of the  upper trough is held up and the enery (I assume) tends to split the trough often leading to a cut off upper low. Of course this may well be meteorologically incorrect. :)

gfs_z500a_natl_17.thumb.png.e0250bc056fc7402dca565b3260b548d.pnggfs_z500a_natl_22.thumb.png.20b576d742bc6243ddcf86cb448b09f2.png

 

I should of course have added, in the context, and in the process bringing cooler air to Europe.

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Posted
  • Location: East Ham, London
  • Location: East Ham, London

Morning all :)

No question this morning's output is the most favourable for those wanting settled and dry conditions for some considerable time. All the main models are firming up on a spell of anticyclonic weather starting at the end of next week and, with a slight hiatus in the early part of the following week, continuing through mid month.

Fortunately there are none of those absurdly high 850s on offer (42c yesterday on Corsica, no thanks) so it would be warm and pleasant rather than hot and uncomfortable which I'm sure no one wants.

A very pleasant end to summer IF it verifies but the signs are good this morning. 

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Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby

the gfs 06z doesnt want to play ball, well not until two weeks time.. its easy to dismiss this run because its not showing the warmer weather for 1 weeks time. but what all indications a few weeks ago suggested is that we were likely to get a lot of settled, anticyclonic weather - just look what happened, the gfs started to show spoilers that most of us ignored. we were wrong to ignore them then, it would be wrong to ignore an unfavourable gfs now.

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Posted
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
10 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

the gfs 06z doesnt want to play ball, well not until two weeks time.. its easy to dismiss this run because its not showing the warmer weather for 1 weeks time. but what all indications a few weeks ago suggested is that we were likely to get a lot of settled, anticyclonic weather - just look what happened, the gfs started to show spoilers that most of us ignored. we were wrong to ignore them then, it would be wrong to ignore an unfavourable gfs now.

It also treats the Atlantic hurricane differently to the previous run. The 0z had the storm crushing somewhere in the eastern US while the 6z keeps it close to the coast and then back out in the Atlantic.

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Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire

Looks like the GFS is starting to pick up the idea to bring back the heat later this month with places being up to 30 degrees or a little more on the latest run. Also chance for some good thunderstorms are on the cards. Hopefully it keeps this up closer to the time

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Surprised nobody has posted the Ecm 00z ensemble mean charts, they look similar to last night's 12z and show there is good support for a return of largely settled and warmer weather from later next week into week 2, especially further south, thanks to the Azores high.:)

ECMAVGEU00_168_1.png

ECMAVGEU00_192_1.png

ECMAVGEU00_216_1.png

ECMAVGEU00_240_1.png

Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The outlook for next week is a showery start and then gradually becoming drier with more in the way of sunshine, and becoming warmer with lighter winds..that will do for me!:D 

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The Gefs 06z mean turns into a beauty, compared to what we have now! high pressure gradually builds in during next week with the weather settling down and warming up, especially further south from later next week onwards through week 2..this would be a welcome return to form for summer 2017.:)

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WP_20170804_13_57_58_Pro.jpg

Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
2 hours ago, Frosty. said:

The Gefs 06z mean turns into a beauty, compared to what we have now! high pressure gradually builds in during next week with the weather settling down and warming up, especially further south from later next week onwards through week 2..this would be a welcome return to form for summer 2017.:)

 

disagree with you there old chum. we have to wait an extra week for anything summery/hot, instead of the promised hot spell next weekend, we have low pressure to our near northeast feeding us showery and i suspect, often cloudy weather. the heat at the end of the run lasts less then the promised hot snap a week earlier.

the 06z is not a nice run, for those of us wanting sunshine and warmth.

mon.png

tues.png

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thurs.png

fri.png

sat.png

Edited by mushymanrob
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Feel free to disagree old chum, I wasn't even talking about the 6z operational, I was talking about the 6z mean which is increasingly settled and warm with the azores high becoming dominant! ..now I'm not saying for a minute that it will verify but I think there is cause for optimism, at least for southern uk as we go towards / during the  mid month period.:)

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

Hmmmmm there are a few worrying signs on the 12z runs tonight! The low deepens to the east and takes longer to move away, and high pressure isn't really shown to be as dominant. Surely we can't have the rug swept from underneath us again!

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Posted
  • Location: Exile from Argyll
  • Location: Exile from Argyll

The GFS is keen on a strong Atlantic hurricane and the 6z showed this grazing the US coast. Ensembles will be offering different outcomes so I would think there will be a lot of chopping and changing in runs with a very vague picture for week 2. 

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
6 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Hmmmmm there are a few worrying signs on the 12z runs tonight! The low deepens to the east and takes longer to move away, and high pressure isn't really shown to be as dominant. Surely we can't have the rug swept from underneath us again!

Yup, absolutely nothing is straightforwards for summer heat lovers or winter cold lovers.

GFS is another poor run in the reliable ..if its not a god damn trough moving in from the North west its a bloody trough sticking around the north sea like a bad smell.

Just roll on sept when there will no doubt be some warmth, im afraid its fast turning into another disgusting sorry excuse for a summer up here!

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