Model Output Discussions 12z 01/06/2017

[karyo]

4 minutes ago, knocker said:

I must admit I'm genuinely intrigued by this discussion as can't see a deep little low in the T120-144 time frame heading towards Britain on this morning's ecm .

Look again! lol

It reaches its peak at the 168 hour range.

[knocker]

24 minutes ago, karyo said:

Look again! lol

It reaches its peak at the 168 hour range.

Ah I'm with you now. You are referring to the low which starts life over the eastern seaboard around now and runs east to be NE of the Azores by T72 and then tracks north along the 30w longitude until T144 where it engages the jet and tracks rapidly east around the high pressure to be just NW of Ireland by T180 and impacts the UK on Thursday. I didn't realise that was the low you were talking about. My mistake albeit nothing particularly unusual in this pattern I would have thought.

Edited August 3, 2017 by knocker

[Summer Sun]

19 minutes ago, knocker said:

I must admit I'm genuinely intrigued by this discussion as can't see a deep little low in the T120-144 time frame heading towards Britain on this morning's ecm .

I'm guessing it's this

[Frosty.]

Compared to where we are right now with a low sat on top of the UK, the Gefs 00z mean looks increasingly good from next midweek onwards as the Azores high ridges in strongly across the UK with increasingly settled and warmer conditions developing, especially across southern UK!

Edited August 3, 2017 by Frosty.

[knocker]

6 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

I'm guessing it's this

Yes here it is at T72, and the route from the seaboard, and 144. I just didn't realise that it was next Thursday's low Karyo was talking about. Silly of me.

Edited August 3, 2017 by knocker

[karyo]

17 minutes ago, knocker said:

Ah I'm with you now. You are referring to the low which starts life over the eastern seaboard around now and runs east to be NE of the Azores by T72 and then tracks north along the 30w longitude until T144 where it engages the jet and tracks rapidly east around the high pressure to be just NW of Ireland by T180 and impacts the UK on Thursday. I didn't realise that was the low you were talking about. My mistake albeit nothing particularly unusual in this pattern I would have thought.

Yes Knocker, that's the one :-)

[Nouska]

1 hour ago, karyo said:

Intriguing ECM! It shows the creation of that deep little low in the 120-144 hour timeframe which then heads for the UK. I wonder if it may have some tropical characteristics as it starts its life not far from the Azores?

I notice that the UKMO doesn't have this system but it does have a hurricane in the Caribbean instead (see 168 hour chart)! 

Tropical Tidbits has a useful feature for looking at the Atlantic basin - you can go back three days on the model and thus see where this low has genesis. The energy is generated from the remnants of tropical storm Emily and a train of little tropical waves that are circulating round the high.

Emily over Florida on first of August. 

Then follow the run and see the development.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=atl&pkg=uv850_vort&runtime=2017080300&fh=-48&xpos=0&ypos=114

 

[karyo]

5 minutes ago, Nouska said:

Tropical Tidbits has a useful feature for looking at the Atlantic basin - you can go back three days on the model and thus see where this low has genesis. The energy is generated from the remnants of tropical storm Emily and a train of little tropical waves that are circulating round the high.

Emily over Florida on first of August. 

Then follow the run and see the development.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=atl&pkg=uv850_vort&runtime=2017080300&fh=-48&xpos=0&ypos=114

 

Thanks Nouska, that's really useful. 

[johnholmes]

1 hour ago, Nouska said:

Tropical Tidbits has a useful feature for looking at the Atlantic basin - you can go back three days on the model and thus see where this low has genesis. The energy is generated from the remnants of tropical storm Emily and a train of little tropical waves that are circulating round the high.

Emily over Florida on first of August. 

Then follow the run and see the development.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=atl&pkg=uv850_vort&runtime=2017080300&fh=-48&xpos=0&ypos=114

 

thank you very much for that link, it will be very useful

[mushymanrob]

3 hours ago, johnholmes said:

ast night's anomalies, although not in complete agreement, do not show any significant change from the previous outlooks for the next fourteen days. Having said that it's these differences and how the det runs tackle the detail that will affect how the our weather finishes up.

Very well put k, I certainly agree on that summation.

i beg to differ sir.... surely they are gradually suggesting higher lows then previous runs and the 8-14 dayer whilst it might be flatlined, certainly isnt a trough dominated chart.

or maybe im looking too hard for support for the pressure rise the ops are currently suggesting for late next week

[Frosty.]

Lots to like about the Gfs 6z operational with high pressure building in during the second half of next week bringing a spell of warm and settled weather, especially further south which is followed by a more changeable blip but then another strong surge of high pressure later in the run with a scandi high forming a nice block!

I would happily settle for this

Edited August 3, 2017 by Frosty.

[johnholmes]

I'll call the links up and see what they show mushy, the overall comment is fair enough from memory, but the links

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

sorry in a rush as going out, will try and comment fully later on.

I still feel that the summary by k was about right in my view. There has been some change but not a major one. The idea of cooler and unsettled/ changeable weather for most parts, especially away from the SE corner, rather than a blocked hot set up is what the anomaly charts show to me?

Edited August 3, 2017 by johnholmes

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

Extreme caution to be taken with the gfs 06z because the ecm 00z throws in a another Atlantic low around the 10th.

[Singularity]

2 hours ago, johnholmes said:

I'll call the links up and see what they show mushy, the overall comment is fair enough from memory, but the links

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

sorry in a rush as going out, will try and comment fully later on.

I still feel that the summary by k was about right in my view. There has been some change but not a major one. The idea of cooler and unsettled/ changeable weather for most parts, especially away from the SE corner, rather than a blocked hot set up is what the anomaly charts show to me?

To me the ECM for example depicts a (slightly) decelerating upper flow into a ridge anomaly located in a region where climatology already tends to have a ridge. Any positive height anomalies overlapping the U.K. are a good sign at this time of year although when a shallow as currently shown this should be interpreted to mean 'more often dry and warm than cool and wet' as opposed to a total abolishment of the latter form of weather. Greatest proportion dry and warm being in the south with such position of anomalies - mostly dry here but with room for a brief small low to zip through as per the ECM 00z.

[mb018538]

After what seems like eternity - the best part of 3-4 weeks by the time it potentially arrives - we are finally starting to see high pressure moving in through the reliable part of the model runs. UKMO and GFS look good tonight - finer details of exactly where the high ends up to be ironed out, but we could finally be seeing some light at the end of a very long and unsettled tunnel.

[Sky Full]

No matter how transitory, this would bring an extremely welcome respite from the wet and windy, autumnal conditions which have been prevalent in my part of the world all this week.  I can see some sunny cloudless skies, gentle breezes, late evening sunshine etc.  Maybe even some of the flowers will open again instead of cowering in the bushes.

I hope to see this chart verify at least, if not substantially upgrade, in the next few days.

....oops, that'll never happen.

[phil nw.]

Modeling so far is still looking at some improvements towards the end of next week.

It does mean though we are still over a week away before the Azores high ridges in on the back of a rather cool north westerly,so until then not much change to our changeable regime.

It is quite notable that S.Europe continues to sizzle whilst N.Europe sees the jet running across bringing cool and unsettled weather.

The visit of the next upper trough early next week again makes sure that the heat stays pretty much south of the Alps.

At least there are continuing signs of some drier and brighter weather following on as the Azores high makes it's move east.The south certainly should see a big improvement but maybe we best wait until surface details are pinned down nearer the time before we speculate how far north we see this spread.

[Frosty.]

Nice looking GEFS 12z mean from day 7 onwards with a spell of warm and settled august weather as the Azores high builds in, looks like a summery spell returning across england and wales and according to these charts, further north would join in too!

Edited August 3, 2017 by Frosty.

[mb018538]

ECM has a bit of a disturbance there at 168 vs the GFS but isn't bad overall. Either way it's looking a LOT less unsettled once we get towards the middle of next week.

[Frosty.]

Ecm 12z looks generally  a lot better from next midweek across southern uk despite a few niggles, a big improvement on the current / recent unseasonable dross!

Edited August 3, 2017 by Frosty.

[carinthian]

The dominant feature on the NH charts this summer has been the persist and strong Pacific high off the west coast of USA /Canada. Third summer in a row that has produced very high temperatures and drought conditions, especially for the usual maritime climates of Oregan, Washington and British Columbia. The various charts at day 10 continue with this theme. As a result the jet stream is on a much more southerly track for high summer for both North America and the North Atlantic. So NW Europe is likely to remain on the cool side, especially the British Isles with the real heat still locked in Southern Europe and Western States of USA/ Canada. With little warmth flowing into the high Arctic , a speedy cool down will soon likely start here in the  next few weeks.

 C

[Man With Beard]

Glad to see the ECM op sticking to the (generally) high pressure based scenario, moreso in the south than in the far north - the ECM 00Z ensembles had a bit of a wobble this morning (op run in the final cluster)

looks to me as if the ECM 12Z op has stuck with the same cluster as it was in this morning for the 00Z.

All the clusters look fair for the south, but you'd prefer the 2nd and 3rd clusters not to verify if you're in the north.

[karyo]

28 minutes ago, carinthian said:

The dominant feature on the NH charts this summer has been the persist and strong Pacific high off the west coast of USA /Canada. Third summer in a row that has produced very high temperatures and drought conditions, especially for the usual maritime climates of Oregan, Washington and British Columbia. The various charts at day 10 continue with this theme. As a result the jet stream is on a much more southerly track for high summer for both North America and the North Atlantic. So NW Europe is likely to remain on the cool side, especially the British Isles with the real heat still locked in Southern Europe and Western States of USA/ Canada. With little warmth flowing into the high Arctic , a speedy cool down will soon likely start here in the  next few weeks.

 C

 

 

Let's hope so, the Arctic needs all the help it can get.

[ANYWEATHER]

14 minutes ago, karyo said:

Let's hope so, the Arctic needs all the help it can get.

Evening all probably been spoon fed and brainwashed with all this rubbish about the article melting ,You're generation will see an ice age developing ......meanwhile the Atlantic dominates in one shape or form

[Singularity]

This logic has its merits but less so when the jet stream becomes more meridional which looks to occur over Western Europe just about enough later next week to turn the flow over the U.K. more to the south with temps increasing accordingly across at least southern parts.

This being despite a continued tendency for some changeability to the weather.

 

The Arctic situation is actually very interesting, if a bit alarming at the mo, with more than half of an already second-lowest extent of ice on record in a very thin and heavily fragmented state, with a fairly week storm having just managed to wipe out an unusually large swathe of ice in Beaufort while a stronger storm looks to hit much of the remaining Pacific ice starting  in 2-3 days time. Some serious wedges of relatively warm and moist air wrapping into these storms too. A quick cooldown is desperately needed to combat the oceanic mixing/wave action feedbacks.

This is of course for another thread but the above can be considered a counterbalancing tidbit in this area of the forum that's viewable by non-members  I will cease my OT activities without further ado.

 

Edited August 3, 2017 by Singularity