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Model Output Discussions 12z 01/06/2017


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Things look like perking up Frosty,lets hope so be good for the kids school holidays,

all looks fairly average maybe something warmer towards the end.....

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An unseasonally wet, cool and windy day amidst an underwhelming week of weather does not a summer make. Much as anticipated through the second half of Spring, the hand-over to Summer sees the atm

There have been some strange observations made today, as too often occurs in this thread whatever the time of year, and largely based on the usual knee-jerk response to longer term suggested NWP.

You always seem to jump in on my posts, along with a few others. Why don't you try giving your assessment of the models instead of picking holes in others efforts!

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10 minutes ago, DTHFCJ said:

Things look like perking up Frosty,lets hope so be good for the kids school holidays,

all looks fairly average maybe something warmer towards the end.....

ensemble-tt6-london.gif

 

 

 

Yes it's encouraging, it looks like high pressure will dominate southern uk during the second half of next week and gradually becoming warmer through next week too. Further ahead it appears to be a north/south split with northern uk generally more changeable / atlantic driven and further south continuing to enjoy good spells of summer weather.:)

Edited by Frosty.
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1 minute ago, Frosty. said:

Yes it's encouraging, it looks like high pressure will dominate southern uk during the second half of next week and becoming warmer through next week too. Further ahead it appears to be a north/south split with northern uk generally more changeable / atlantic driven and further south continuing to enjoy good spells of summer weather.:)

lets hope so Frosty! would love a nationwide good spell...but thats as hard as Spurs winning the prem!

should add these too a tad damp unfortunately

 ensemble-rrrcum-london.gif

 

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Met office going with the settled theme from mid next week for the south at least, more changeable for the northern half of the country. Signs are there, just hope this remains so 

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GFS 12z doesn't look good for settled conditions with low pressure always nearby for the 1st third of August. Sunshine and temperature would be a little below average from this run I would imagine.

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Nothing overly settled on the GFS 12z with a mostly mobile westerly pattern. Just brief ridges of higher pressure in between the bands of showers or longer spells of rain, Generally drier the further south you are. Heaviest of the rain further north. Of course in the sun (which still has strength to it) it will feel pleasant in between the cloud & rain.

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The Gem 12z looks a lot better than the gfs regarding later next week with high pressure building across the south setting up a north-south split with southern UK becoming more settled and warmer. :)

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The Gefs 12z mean perks up nicely compared to the operational with the azores high ridging in strongly across southern UK bringing increasingly settled and warmer weather during the second half of next week, especially further south. I think we will be looking at a north-south split with the south seeing a return of something more summery although of course I hope the rest of the uk will also get to enjoy some fine august warmth too! :)

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Edited by Frosty.
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Interesting that the gfs this evening has resurrected the idea from not long ago., which to some extent the ecm also played with, and that was to deconstruct the upper trough just to the west of us. create a cut off low. which phases with the low pressure over Iberia and deepens as amplication of the HP takes place to the west and the east.

Thus Monday 12z sees this process underway

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twenty four hours later a general area of low pressure over western Europe with the low just beginning to intensify.in the southern North Sea

gfs_z500a_natl_25.thumb.png.575baee1029c4d074b8a65ddc8a42349.pnggfs_ptype_slp_eur3_23.thumb.png.fa8183082876895b2be975906b92b991.pnggfs_ptype_slp_eur3_25.thumb.png.b9001038ad2daf56c44efa4ade939bdd.png

And from this point it deepens rapidly and raises the possibility of severe gales along the NE coast. Now all this is extremely unlikey to happen but it will be interesting to see if the ecm pays lip service to the idea.

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Looking through the next 10 days on the GEFs and our Summer is still struggling to return.

There is a chink of light towards the end of next week with the eastwards progression of the Azores high towards us as the current trough finally exits east.

Day 5 and 10 charts show the evolution

gfs-ens_z500_mslp_atl_21.thumb.png.f46f5ad76c41ba7c946163f3b2887421.pnggfs-ens_z500_mslp_atl_39.thumb.png.df2603955bd5037c0fd79074130487d1.png

so we get the amplification of the Atlantic jet,as Knocker mentioned above,which topples the Azores high eastwards before it ends up just to our south west.

Weather wise still no great shakes with a rather cool westerly flow re establishing so temperatures still only marginally higher towards next weekend,Warks graph below

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so signs towards next week end of some relaxation of the jet but with the Azores high still generally not as effective as we would like to maintain longer settled periods. 

 

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Much better Ecm 12z compared to the gfs op from next midweek onwards, again, especially across southern UK as a strong ridge of high pressure from the azores extends across the south and as with the 00z.a happy ending!.:D

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Edited by Frosty.
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Whenever the GEFS shows a 1030mb mean high, I expect high pressure to verify in that location. This has only been wrong a couple of times that I've seen over the course of several years. And we have such a high just to our south west by the middle of next week. That's close enough to make the GFS op evolution very unlikely to affect the UK - the GFS is in all likelihood overdoing the low, and any downgrade would make it more likely to verify east of its position on the GFS.

I'm now feeling very confident that this high pressure will break the stranglehold of troughing over the UK, for at least a couple of days in Scotland, but for several days over the rest of the UK. Virtually all the ensembles I have been watching over the past 24 hours, support this (ECM ensembles fully on board between T168 and T240).

Having got so unseasonably cool, it will take a little time to warm up on a westerly source - we have a week or two left where a westerly can still get hot under a strong high and a gentle flow - but I wouldn't be surprised to see the high being pushed east within a few days and another approach by an Atlantic front, squeezing a bit more from the south as it does so and a temporary return to those hot temperatures that southerners got used to at the beginning of the summer.

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We'll have to keep an eye on the impressive area of hot air that'll be concentrated over SE Europe by Monday, as the ridging tendency increases across and then a little east of the UK; the hot airmass should tend to drift west over the following days and then north which means even if we only see a brief plume in the middle stages of August, it could be a potent one.

GFS has found a way to prevent this progression in the form of that shallow low on Monday interacting with the plume while that's still over SE Europe, deepening very much and driving the plume away from us instead of toward. One may find this overdone given  the lack of GEFS support as MWB has pointed out - and in any case GEM has shown us how such low-plume interaction needn't result in such a deep low anyway, with the plume only having its northern reaches blasted away.

So yeah - I'm willing to raise the bar of hope a little this evening with respect to seeing some temperature anomalies at least some way on the positive side of the LTA in mid-August :)

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Good evening all can't really see anything but Atlantic dominance from the ops into the ten day period all the hoping of a hot spells in the near future is merely pipe dreams at the moment:nonono:

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At last something better appears to be on the way looking at the 00z runs so far...

GFS/UKMO both show the azores high moving north and then being pushed towards the UK at 144- hoping this sets us up for a decent spell of summer weather thereafter although im still wary at this distance the models could be underestimating the Atlantic , hoping for the best, this last week or two around these parts has been an abomination!

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This morning's gfs and ecm runs merely illustrate how difficult it is to predict, even in the medium term, these fluid patterns are. The ecm quickly breaks down the ridge next week

ecm_mslp_uv850_natl_8.thumb.png.cb346b41ca5d12b273362cc6671d20f4.pngecm_t850a_5d_natl_11.thumb.png.15215b23fcbcacea77a69afbf713b3bb.png

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UKMO shows high pressure slowly edging in from the west next week as it does arrive winds will be coming down from a less than warm direction whilst days would be pleasant enough in any sunshine I doubt temps would be much above average

UKMOPEU00_144_1.thumb.png.cf38d475097008a093f318df0c08009b.pngukm2.2017081000_168_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.8a926a6fb263ed4dad42cda1425252fa.png

Edited by Summer Sun
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ast night's anomalies, although not in complete agreement, do not show any significant change from the previous outlooks for the next fourteen days. Having said that it's these differences and how the det runs tackle the detail that will affect how the our weather finishes up.

Very well put k, I certainly agree on that summation.

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Intriguing ECM! It shows the creation of that deep little low in the 120-144 hour timeframe which then heads for the UK. I wonder if it may have some tropical characteristics as it starts its life not far from the Azores?

I notice that the UKMO doesn't have this system but it does have a hurricane in the Caribbean instead (see 168 hour chart)! 

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9 minutes ago, karyo said:

Intriguing ECM! It shows the creation of that deep little low in the 120-144 hour timeframe which then heads for the UK. I wonder if it may have some tropical characteristics as it starts its life not far from the Azores?

I notice that the UKMO doesn't have this system but it does have a hurricane in the Caribbean instead (see 168 hour chart)! 

Yes a new idea from the ECM op this morning. Not really evident on any ensembles at the moment, so will need to see if it gains traction through the day. But the ops are sometimes the first into these things, aren't they?

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14 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Yes a new idea from the ECM op this morning. Not really evident on any ensembles at the moment, so will need to see if it gains traction through the day. But the ops are sometimes the first into these things, aren't they?

Indeed! I will await the next runs with interest.

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20 minutes ago, karyo said:

Indeed! I will await the next runs with interest.

I must admit I'm genuinely intrigued by this discussion as can't see a deep little low in the T120-144 time frame heading towards Britain on this morning's ecm :cc_confused:.

Edited by knocker
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