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phil nw.

Model Output Discussions 12z 01/06/2017

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Nice to see ECM backing away from the constant barrage of lows

ECMOPEU00_120_1.thumb.png.2378e5799d165bfc9e64c976418b4fe6.pngECMOPEU00_168_1.thumb.png.e9d1d96b4a6450beb23c0e2dc711fa8a.pngECMOPEU00_216_1.thumb.png.7c78e95db5e4c65c42c5d09f8bbb3dff.pngECMOPEU00_240_1.thumb.png.c5e2c657623978bc54e8ec571bfd67e6.png

UKMO looks to be going a similar way typically UKMO extended is down so t168 remains a mystery for now

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2 hours ago, knocker said:

These quickly traverse the country and by 12z Thursday the low is over north east Scotland with the UK in a showery westerly, many of which could be quite wintry.

Did I read this right Knocker.... I almost choked on my cornflakes!! Wintry showers? That really sums up my Summer:cold:

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5 minutes ago, DR(S)NO said:

Did I read this right Knocker.... I almost choked on my cornflakes!! Wintry showers? That really sums up my Summer:cold:

Probably not the best terminology to use if I'm honest but quite cool on Thursday in a fairly strong westerly and the showers could be quite organised and quite hefty,  possible of hail.

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Morning all :)

Yes, perhaps a window of opportunity in the medium term starting to emerge.

GFS 00Z OP at T+240:

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ECM 00Z OP at the same time:

ECM1-240.GIF?31-12

GEM 00Z OP at the same time:

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GFS doesn't hold the HP and lets the Atlantic back in but ECM has a stronger ridge and the jet further north so there's something to play for at the end of next week and perhaps beyond. It's the evolution to a settled and warm rather than hot pattern which may be on the cards.

The problem is GFS, which looks the most favourable, develops a shallow LP to the west of Scotland, runs it across northern Scotland and suppresses the Azores Ridge leaving us in a w'ly regime. At the very end of FI there looks more than a hint of a Scandinavian trough and a mid-Atlantic ridge which won't end well for fans of heat.

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1 hour ago, knocker said:

Probably not the best terminology to use if I'm honest but quite cool on Thursday in a fairly strong westerly and the showers could be quite organised and quite hefty,  possible of hail.

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Terrible terminology Knocker. Hail is not a wintry shower! I won't go into the science of it I'll let you read it up yourself. It could be 50c and still hail!

Anyway onto models and it does appear that a crumb of comfort is appearing with the jet slightly more north from the weekend onwards although the tilt means there will more of a NW flow which unfortunately means it will feel rather cool for the time of the year with showers as the slack flow allows.

Over time it appears that we could end up with the flow becoming more westerly again and the jet that little bit more north which suggests a NW-SE split establishing. No sign of hot weather reappearing at the moment.

 

 

 

 

 

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I doubt it will happen, but the 06Z GFS shows a devilish little Low blowing up over the North Sea for next Tuesday, which could bring stormy winds and blustery showers for places, most especially towards the East of the UK

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On 7/30/2017 at 08:50, mb018538 said:

Still looks dire to me, anything decent isn't getting closer, and it's gradually showing more low pressure dominance.....looking like summer 2017 is going to be the summer that started so well and promised so, so much.....but finished with your typical 2010s terrible August!

Well the models are pointing towards something more settled by day 10  but im not entirely sure it will be a protracted settled spell as there are still no signs of the jet lifting north ..

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1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:

Well the models are pointing towards something more settled by day 10  but im not entirely sure it will be a protracted settled spell as there are still no signs of the jet lifting north ..

Yes although we see some buckling of the jet upstream by day 4, because of the Canadian trough, the Azores high remains too suppressed to bring us much relief from the unsettled cool pattern.

A look at the ECM NH mean 500hPa forecast for days 4 and 9 for instance

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shows some movement east of the pattern but the mean flow remains rather on the cool side with the upper flow still stubbornly from the North Atlantic.

Last night's CPC anomaly forecast for days 6-10 again shows this 

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Just a hint maybe beyond day 10 that the south may be less affected by the Atlantic systems as pressure rises somewhat towards the south west but really no sign of any real heat or prolonged dry spells as yet.

viewimage.pbx?type=cfsvens;date=20170731

so it looks like the southerly tracking jet continues to limit our chances of any Summer heat and fine weather for a while longer unfortunately.

Edited by phil nw.
inserting images

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There are signs of improvement next week on the Gefs 6z mean as the Azores high ridges in with at least the southern half of the UK seeing a change to largely fine and warmer weather. It looks like a north / south split further ahead too with the south continuing with the best of the conditions but the north seeing some pleasant spells too.:)

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59 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

There are signs of improvement next week on the Gefs 6z mean as the Azores high ridges in with at least the southern half of the UK seeing a change to largely fine and warmer weather. It looks like a north / south split further ahead too with the south continuing with the best of the conditions but the north seeing some pleasant spells too.:)

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Festival that weekend, so I'll take those charts. Met office also hint at a more settled period during this time, let's hope it materialises

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2 minutes ago, richep said:

Festival that weekend, so I'll take those charts. Met office also hint at a more settled period during this time, let's hope it materialises

Yes fingers crossed, the mean looks better than it did yesterday, the south of the UK should see a marked improvement taking place during the course of next week.:)

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Looking at the Gfs 12z regarding next week, from around midweek onwards the south of the UK generally improves with increasing high pressure influence bringing pleasantly warm and largely fine conditions with repeated surges of high pressure / ridging from the azores spreading across southern uk which means a north / south split with northern UK continuing in the atlantic flow, ergo generally more changeable / unsettled and cooler than further south. :)

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Edited by Frosty.

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The Gefs 12z mean shows a gradual improvement from the south-west through next week, especially across England and Wales as the Azores high ridges in across southern UK bringing drier and pleasantly warm weather with sunny spells and lighter winds. It's generally a north / south split with the north of the UK staying more changeable than further south in an oceanic flow and the south, for the most part continuing to enjoy the best of the sunshine, dry weather and temperatures.:)

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One can't help feeling that the analysis for the beginning of next week is long way from being nailed down. The variability of the last two gfs runs and now the ecm (not anywhere near as bad as the gfs) indicates this. These deconstructing upper troughs and the formation of cut off lows open various possibilities vis surface detail and  but certainly is not without interest.

By 12z Friday the mid week depression is over the northern North Sea with with the UK in a NW showery airstream with the concentration of the latter in Scotland and down the west coast.

From here and over the weekend the Azores ridges NE but still a showery regime to start but less so into Sunday. Temps no great shakes and possibly a little below average.

It is at this point that some amplification occurs with the Azores pushing north in the western Atlantic and the upper trough to the west of Ireland starts to disrupt. Thus by 12z Monday we have a shallow surface low over north west Britain which is phasing in with the low pressure to the south over western Europe. It is how this develops that is creating a certain amount of confusion and interest, This evening the ecm is going with a more organized low which tracks north east into Denmark and southern Sweden over the next 48 hours with indications of a great deal of convective activity

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On 26/07/2017 at 22:22, damianslaw said:

 

Peak summer doldrum time, peak annual core warmth time, but the synoptics have a distinctly early autumnal hue to them at the moment, with a predominantly cool airstream, airstream from between west and north, meaning more showery/wet generally cloudy windy cool weather for all, especially the north west quarter of the country - not what you want to see at this stage in the year. 

Sticking to the reliable - no sign of any immediate change, longer term hints of weak amplification in the flow, which could enable some ridge development and a warmer more settled interlude, but it could easily be scuppered by further trough / frontal activity in what looks a robust mobile westerly flow. August typically does see the atlantic ramp up in mode, and for the northern half of the country it marks the start of the more unsettled half of the year..

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28 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Peak summer doldrum time, peak annual core warmth time, but the synoptics have a distinctly early autumnal hue to them at the moment, with a predominantly cool airstream, airstream from between west and north, meaning more showery/wet generally cloudy windy cool weather for all, especially the north west quarter of the country - not what you want to see at this stage in the year. 

Sticking to the reliable - no sign of any immediate change, longer term hints of weak amplification in the flow, which could enable some ridge development and a warmer more settled interlude, but it could easily be scuppered by further trough / frontal activity in what looks a robust mobile westerly flow. August typically does see the atlantic ramp up in mode, and for the northern half of the country it marks the start of the more unsettled half of the year..

Also adding in the factor of ex-hurricanes coming from the tropics, looks like summer, for the north at least, might be basically over. 

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If one were to be optimistic from a late summer point of view then it's worth saying that the GFS is finally forecasting the central pacific trades to weaken out to day 10 as a new MJO wave gets going near Indonesia so one may see a response closer to mid month. 

Of course for those us happy to call time on summer now it's worth saying that those central pacific trades have culled the attempted El Nino to the point that region 3.4 is now 0.0 and we have cold water beneath the surface - so we may see the atmosphere respond as a feedback cycle sets in. 

Looking closer and all models tonight show a less cyclonic pattern that is currently seen but no real attempt at summer until close to day 10. 

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No obvious significant changes with last night's anomalies in the ext period. Much the same as before with a weakening of the trough and a predominately westerly upper flow with a minimum of significant anomalies in the Atlantic so really at best a N/S split and up to the det runs to sort out the phasing of the cold/warm air (relatively speaking)

Prior to that there is some interest in the 6-10 day period as a 'wave' runs west-east thus some amplification which initially sees the Azores pushing north in the western Atlantic and the trough south adjacent to the UK but as this pattern shifts east the HP for a time becomes more influential over the UK. Well that's the theory.

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Meanwhile back on the farm and this morning's gfs. A wet day tomorrow as the fronts from the depression approaching from the west traverse the country and by 12z Thursday the said low is over Thurso with Britain in a blustery showery westerly. Best leave the word 'wintry' in the locker this morning. :shok:

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The low continues to track ENE and thus the surface wind veers NW with the showers tending to become less frequent (perhaps not in Scotland, N.I.) and by the weekend the Azores has temporarily managed the ridge NE over the UK.portending, in the circumstances not a bad weekend. But the aforementioned amplification is getting underway and by 12z Sunday the next trough is poised to the NW of Ireland to slide south east over the UK. (It looks like any ideas of disrupting the upper trough are off the table here)

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24 hours later the shallow low has duly arrived introducing once again some cooler showery weather, with some more concentrated frontal rain but it quickly moves away east as once again some transient ridging from the Azores tracks east and this is influential until Friday. So essentially unsettled (no surprises here) but plenty of scope for drier, sunny intervals (days) although overall the temps no great shakes.

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All things considered the output from this morning's ecm is not a million miles away from the gfs so just.............

ecm_t850a_5d_natl_11.thumb.png.03fd2e8cf9636624968927fb4c1b5850.png

 

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ECM showing promise at D9/10 with the Azores high finally getting in on the act....another false dawn or the real deal this time??

IMG_4770.thumb.GIF.3fa8bfe152332e78056d4501cb086683.GIF

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Not sure what happened to my attempted post so to repeat.

All 3 anomaly charts I use are showing, fairly similar each of them, the 500 mb flow into the UK veering to north of west over the coming days. This is usually a good guide to what will be seen subsequently on the synoptic charts. As to how long, as usual not easy but the 8-14 NOAA has got a flow about north of west but no height anomalies showing really.

Not a signal for marked warmth though in my view.

links

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

 

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Better signs in the mid-longer range from the Gefs 00z mean with the azores high / ridge becoming more influential as we go deeper into August with plenty of fine and warm weather indicated for the southern half of the UK. :)..Further ahead, the Ecm 00z looks much better for southern uk too.

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Edited by Frosty.

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Much as I admire your unabounded optimism and enthusiasm Frosty, if you scroll back to page 94 you've been posting the same chunk of extended GFS showing things setting down every day for a week now! It hasn't got any closer yet :( (this isn't me having a pop, just an observation that we've been led up the garden path a lot this month).

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Expect a lot of twists and turns with the low passing through next Monday/Tuesday-ish. Both GEFS and ECM ensembles have a wide variety of depths for this low, and that affects the impact of the low as well as how quickly it clears off. Indeed, the (slightly) largest ECM cluster last night had a deeper low, which took an extra day to clear when compared with this morning's op run.

Most runs looking much more settled once that particular low clears off, though.

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11 hours ago, Ross Andrew Hemphill said:

Also adding in the factor of ex-hurricanes coming from the tropics, looks like summer, for the north at least, might be basically over. 

It never started in most parts of Scotland!

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