Model Output Discussions 12z 01/06/2017

[DR(S)NO]

31 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Yes the ukmo 12z shows a nice little ridge building in from the west at T+144 hours with atlantic low held at bay further west..baby steps..can we get some usable weather next week?..hopefully!

Doesn't look too bad at the beginning of the week in my neck of the woods Frosty...

[knocker]

Quite a neat upper pattern with the ecm tonight, not a million miles from last night's anomaly, with the east European HP ridging into Greenland. Not good news. At the end of the day you can't make a silk purse out of a sows ear.

 

Edited July 21, 2017 by knocker

[Man With Beard]

The ECM sticks largely with what it had before - but strangely starts to send the main trough backwards by D9/D10 - signs that it wants blocking to the east to get established?

With such variance tonight, and bearing in mind many more GEFS members are closer to UKMO than the GFS op, I think all bets are off beyond even next Wednesday.

[knocker]

19 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

The ECM sticks largely with what it had before - but strangely starts to send the main trough backwards by D9/D10 - signs that it wants blocking to the east to get established?

With such variance tonight, and bearing in mind many more GEFS members are closer to UKMO than the GFS op, I think all bets are off beyond even next Wednesday.

Well I don't know about wanting it to get established but it does have blocking to the east which splits the upper flow around the UK. Ergo the cessation of eastward movement of the upper/surface low . This is not necessarily good news as we just have low pressure stuck in the eastern Atlantic but I suppose it does again open the possibility , with the Azores regressed south west, of it filling and allowing a system to sneak south east into Iberia. Or of course for renewed surge of the Azores north east. This evening the latter is not an option it appears to be considering.

[Frosty.]

Analysing an Ecm day 10 chart in such detail is pointless anyway as it never verifies at that range.

Edited July 21, 2017 by Frosty.

[knocker]

12 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Analysing an Ecm day 10 chart in such detail is pointless anyway as it never verifies at that range.

If that comment is referring to my post it is not applicable as that was merely a brief analysis of what the EPS mean 850mb streamlines and the anomaly are showing out to day 14 this evening in reply to a point MWB made. Not an analysis of a day chart but thank you for your insights on the matter.

[Frosty.]

3 minutes ago, knocker said:

thank you for your insights on the matter.

You're very welcome as always.

[blizzard81]

As I tried to emphasise a couple of days ago, the intensity and track of the Atlantic low next week is subject to much scrutiny. The outcome will greatly affect the weather in the UK. The 'trend' today has been good - south west to north east airflow gains momentum as the low stalls to the west of the UK. The result equals much warmer temps for next week than previously forecast. 

Edited July 21, 2017 by blizzard81

[draztik]

40 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

The result equals much warmer temps for next week than previously forecast. 

 

Where are you getting this from? Or comparing to what? From what I can see.... temps of around 20-23 in the south, to 17-22 in the north have been propagated for a few days now for next week. and that hasn't tended to change, much. As per metoffice, yr.no, weatherbell.

Edited July 21, 2017 by draztik

[blizzard81]

9 minutes ago, draztik said:

Where are you getting this from? Or comparing to what? From what I can see.... temps of around 20-23 in the south, to 17-22 in the north have been propagated for a few days now for next week. and that hasn't tended to change, much. As per metoffice, yr.no, weatherbell.

Just a notch higher on the latest.

[Kentspur]

23 minutes ago, draztik said:

Where are you getting this from? Or comparing to what? From what I can see.... temps of around 20-23 in the south, to 17-22 in the north have been propagated for a few days now for next week. and that hasn't tended to change, much. As per metoffice, yr.no, weatherbell.

17c in mid summer is pathetic poor northerners low 20s feels pretty cool as it is down south after all the heat of early summer down here and a weeks worth of 30c+ days. I hope the Temps do go up a notch 24-26c would be perfect

[Mokidugway]

Yep cool up North , but at least it's interesting weather convective wise if nothing else .

[weatherguru14]

26 minutes ago, Kentspur said:

17c in mid summer is pathetic poor northerners low 20s feels pretty cool as it is down south after all the heat of early summer down here and a weeks worth of 30c+ days. I hope the Temps do go up a notch 24-26c would be perfect

weeks??  and weeks of  30c 

[davehsug]

18z going along with stalling the low next week too, eventually allowing a (at this stage) short lived HP area to form over the UK. A new signal maybe? Fingers crossed for holidaymakers!

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

Looking at sypnotics and latest charts I do have a feeling we could be writing off August/rest of summer as we enter an unusual and very unseasonal August unsettled pattern with a sudden awoken Atlantic.  But lets not forget a cooler and wet second half to summer was already on the cards in the model outlooks which appear to be coming to fruit. These patterns can stick like superglue if they continue the way they're heading and it could be mid-September before we get any next decent dry and warm spell.          

[Scorcher]

30 minutes ago, 40*C said:

Looking at sypnotics and latest charts I do have a feeling we could be writing off August/rest of summer as we enter an unusual and very unseasonal August unsettled pattern with a sudden awoken Atlantic.  But lets not forget a cooler and wet second half to summer was already on the cards in the model outlooks which appear to be coming to fruit. These patterns can stick like superglue if they continue the way they're heading and it could be mid-September before we get any next decent dry and warm spell.          

Honestly, is there any need for such an over the top emotive post? How on earth did you come up with mid September? It's almost 2 whole months away! 

[knocker]

As briefly discussed last night in relation to the EPS moving into the ext period there are signs that the models are looking at some amplification in eastern Europe, and thus the eastern Atlantic, with high pressure strengthening and ridging in the east. This stops eastward pattern movement and in our case the trough in the vicinity of the UK and weakens and diverts the upper flow. There is no apparent immediate advantage to this but it does open up opportunities in the near future that have already been mentioned. Ergo it can only be a good sign. This morning's gfs goes along with this

Meanwhile back on the farm. The low pressure that is dominating the weather this weekend slowly moves east and by 18z Monday the UK is in a light northerly with showers quite infrequent and mainly confined to the coasts, We are then briefly more or less in a col on Tuesday before the next upper trough appears south east of Greenland by 00z Wednesday with associated surface fronts orientated just to the west of Ireland

The front(s) traverse the country clearing by 12z on Thursday as a ridge builds in from the south west, And this is where we came in. The next Atlantic depression is diverted NE as the upper flow backs and the whole pattern loses inertia over the weekend. Absolutely no point in looking at detail at this stage but I think, for the moment, I would accept this as although still changeable next week it could be a lot worse and a chink of light may well be showing although no point in getting carried away at this stage particularly as only the gfs has been looked at this morning.

And talking of where we came in the GEFS anomaly this morning.

Edited July 22, 2017 by knocker

[I remember Atlantic 252]

long way off, but next Sat, Vile

[Frosty.]

6 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

long way off, but next Sat, Vile

SE corner doesn't look vile

Edited July 22, 2017 by Frosty.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

I'm in the west Frosty! but long way off

[Matthew.]

7 hours ago, weatherguru14 said:

weeks??  and weeks of  30c 

Maybe a weeksworth of 30c he meant. Even the much coveted Dover couldn't claim that this summer even if they have stolen all the sunshine.

[knocker]

The ecm more or less agrees with gfs up until midweek (no surprises there) but thereafter not. This is an area of course that has yet to be nailed down

It brings the main low to the north west down to the west of the Hebrides by 00z Friday thus the brief ridging on Thursday more or less confined to the southern half of Britain.as a brisk westerly regime is in place on Friday.

The next low then tracks north east to be NW of N. Ireland by 00z Sunday with associated fronts crossing the UK. So quite a wet, albeit probably spasmodic rain, with a fresh wind, weekend.

At this point there are again signs of the HP ridging to the east causing a cessation of eastward movement and thus the low sits in the vicinity of the UK and slowly fills.

Edited July 22, 2017 by knocker

[mushymanrob]

13 hours ago, knocker said:

Perhaps if ridging into Greenland is encouraged and a very slack pressure area north of the UK (as before this year) with the trough stretching south it might weaken and push the jet a tad further south and perhaps encourage a break away upper low to swing south east in the direction of Iberia and open up some interesting possibilities

Just saying!

.

yeah very tentetive signs, the noaa 6-10 dayer now suggests the mean upper trough centred west of north instead of the previous east of north, so the rain will be warmer. but it might allow for a transitory ridge to deliver a 24-36 hour hot blast between systems ?
 

[Airedalejoe]

1 hour ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

long way off, but next Sat, Vile

Standard fare for us up here nowadays. July and August average temp should be 20C, or a touch under, and that's from data from years ago never mind the current times supposedly warmer climes! 20C+ is fantastic when it happens as it is infrequent and has been for quite a few years now.

[J10]

2 hours ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

long way off, but next Sat, Vile

My least favourite weather split.