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Model Output Discussions 12z 01/06/2017

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1 minute ago, 40*C said:

Another vile gfs run with constant troughing getting stuck between highs, In all likely hood the first half of June looks a total write off. Meanwhile parts of France see temps approaching 35C.

More like Dec, just hope we can squeeze as many dry spells as possible, Tues and Thurs washed out, Mon not the best either

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June does tend to be a wet month and the model runs in the last few days look like it's going to be a wet one again this year. Got to admit disappointing charts though but after a dry winter and spring it's got to change sometime.

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38 minutes ago, 40*C said:

Another vile gfs run with constant troughing getting stuck between highs, In all likely hood the first half of June looks a total write off. Meanwhile parts of France see temps approaching 35C.

Not the best run by any means but Tuesdays low keeps the games across N France rather than here. Any charts to show this heatwave over France?

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18 minutes ago, stainesbloke said:

Not the best run by any means but Tuesdays low keeps the games across N France rather than here. Any charts to show this heatwave over France?

 

ukmaxtemp.png

chart 2.png

Edited by 40*C

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All set for a more unsettled week, though it's best not to write off the first half of June completely, as there's another week of weather to be decided after the coming one!

GFS 12z keeps the theme of low pressure tracking from the SW, NE'wards over the UK bringing showers or longer spells of rain in a mild and moist setup. Definitely a week of topping up the water butts!

12_144_mslp500.png?cb=14 12_192_mslp500.png?cb=14 12_240_mslp500.png?cb=14

You can see at t192 the low pressure is once again drawing up some humid air from the near continent, giving the SE above average temperatures with the risk of continental thundery imports. At t240 high pressure is making a better attempt at nosing in but there is another low pressure system exiting the eastern US which eventually finds its way to us in the distant and oft'amusing end of FI :)

ECM's 12z is probably a little worse as the Atlantic lows take a more west-east track meaning we stay cooler, though perhaps we won't see as much in the way of rainfall as the air won't be so moisture rich when compared with the GFS's version.

144_mslp500.png?cb=949 192_mslp500.png?cb=949 240_mslp500.png?cb=949

Looks like next weekend won't be quite as pleasant as this weekend, let's put it that way! By the end of the ECM run we are under a ridge of sorts (but look at that long tongue of high pressure stretching over the Arctic!), but it doesn't exactly fill me with confidence in its ability to block the next low pressure awaiting in the Atlantic.

So what to do? Well I'd suggest pinning all hopes on the GEM, as it is the best of the three this evening...

144_mslp500.png?cb=227  168_mslp500.png?cb=227 192_mslp500.png?cb=227 240_mslp500.png?cb=227

Notice how at t144 it is less keen on steamrollering the low pressure across the country, instead preferring it to skirt up the western fringes with the centre never actually making landfall. By the end of the weekend (t192) we have a stronger ridge building in from the south which maintains its hold through to the end of the run :)

All hail GEM! :wink: Don't write off the the week after next just yet, as the 12z's show there is still much to be decided and plenty of weather to get through first :D 

Edited by CAPE-steve
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3 hours ago, 40*C said:

 

ukmaxtemp.png

chart 2.png

Nowhere near 35C in France. And S Britain looks quite warm, small tweaks could mean warmth moves N. 

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2 hours ago, stainesbloke said:

Nowhere near 35C in France. And S Britain looks quite warm, small tweaks could mean warmth moves N. 

GFS ofter under-exaggerates the temperatures.  I see 31C in central France and darker colours going at the very bottom of that chart so I'm assuming southern France will see slightly higher temps.

Edited by 40*C
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Some nasty lows for the time of year on show this morning from UKMO

UKMOPEU00_72_1.thumb.png.e3969e843a9f3b08fa09c446e33339bf.pngUKMOPEU00_144_1.thumb.png.d973635fefb227ea3a8476ee3090863b.png

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14 hours ago, stainesbloke said:

Nowhere near 35C in France. And S Britain looks quite warm, small tweaks could mean warmth moves N. 

A long way off, but pushing 40°C in the southwest next weekend

180-582.thumb.gif.67a135d3521af23651f7f6c6fca8991b.gif

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34 minutes ago, Interitus said:

A long way off, but pushing 40°C in the southwest next weekend

180-582.thumb.gif.67a135d3521af23651f7f6c6fca8991b.gif

It's a week away, so subject to changes and in any case, not that relevant to this thread.

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41 minutes ago, Interitus said:

A long way off, but pushing 40°C in the southwest next weekend

180-582.thumb.gif.67a135d3521af23651f7f6c6fca8991b.gif

Yuk, 13° is pants! long way off thankfully

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6 hours ago, stainesbloke said:

It's a week away, so subject to changes and in any case, not that relevant to this thread.

You wanted a chart to show heatwave in France and then stated that "nowhere near 35C in France"?? Lol

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A quick ponder of today's 12z from t144 onwards (GEM, GFS, ECM). I thought I'd lead off with GEM as it was the best yesterday - to borrow from golf - it birdied the hole so it gets to tee off first today :D

144_mslp500.png?cb=19 192_mslp500.png?cb=19 240_mslp500.png?cb=19

GEM, like the other two, has an unsettled beginning to next weekend, with showers for most and more general rain for areas further NW. Temperatures still comfortably above average the further SE you are, with 25C likely in the far SE. Thereafter we begin to see high pressure take control with temperatures pleasantly warm (though no heatwave) and conditions much more benign than the week coming up.

GFS differs a little in the midterm by developing a secondary low for Sunday which gives those in central, southern and eastern areas a good does of rain (areas that miss the worst of Saturday's rain too - GFS going for the equality route!).

12_144_mslp500.png?cb=19 12_192_mslp500.png?cb=19 12_240_mslp500.png?cb=19

It's a showery start for the week after next (t192) as the low pressure clears to the N with high pressure eventually settling things down :)

ECM's 12z gives us a warm and wet weekend with thundery showers likely in the SE and more general rain for the NW, not dissimilar to the others.

144_mslp500.png?cb=19 192_mslp500.png?cb=19 240_mslp500.png?cb=19

As it doesn't develop a secondary low a la GFS we see a quicker transition to high pressure by t192 (like the GEM) which sticks around handsomely until the end of the run 8)

Looking at the GFS ensembles, I've picked Liverpool as a more westerly location to highlight the good agreement on a pressure rise nationwide after next weekend...

gefsensmslpliverpool.png?cb=19 gefsens850liverpool0.png?cb=44

You can see the precipitation spikes supporting a very wet Monday, round 2 on Thursday and a showery looking weekend. Thereafter, from the 12th, we can see a marked reduction in the precipitation spikes indicating a more settled spell as we reach mid-June. I'm sure that'll be very welcome after this weeks wet 'n' wild weather :drinks:

 

 

Edited by CAPE-steve
forgot ensembles image
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The ecm extended tonight holds much more promise - polar heights decrease markedly by 240 hours, and the trough pulls back into the atlantic. GFS showing similar too. Please be a trend setter!

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A very wet week ahead for some parts we could well have some issues with flooding if the GFS totals are right

96-777UK.GIF?04-12168-777UK.GIF?04-12240-777UK.GIF?04-12

High res look at the rain

arpegeuk-25-114-0.thumb.png.db6be12c7149a84d31252f1df8dc6719.png

Edited by Summer Sun

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23 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

A very wet week ahead for some parts we could well have some issues with flooding if the GFS totals are right

96-777UK.GIF?04-12168-777UK.GIF?04-12240-777UK.GIF?04-12

High res look at the rain

arpegeuk-25-114-0.thumb.png.db6be12c7149a84d31252f1df8dc6719.png

Capel Curig to get the top rainfall crown again? :rolleyes:

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On ‎03‎/‎06‎/‎2017 at 18:37, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

airpressure.pngeasily mistaken for Dec or Jan

 

:nonono:

 

sku_458638_1.jpg

Edited by OddSpot
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56 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

The ecm extended tonight holds much more promise - polar heights decrease markedly by 240 hours, and the trough pulls back into the atlantic. GFS showing similar too. Please be a trend setter!

Operational shows nothing of the sort, shows HP being sucked N through UK to reinforce higher latitude blocking?

ECH1-240.GIF?04-0

This eventually leads to a N-S split on the GFS with the S rather warm and drier and the N cloudier, windier and wetter.

Further on...I've been monitoring the mean CFS output. For July the trend has been to pull the mean heights further NW run on run

glbz700MonInd2.gif

Edited by CreweCold
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Have to say that those of a summery disposition in the se of the uk should be smiling and even the nw of the country can look forward to a decent period post next weekend - the euro heights asserting themselves against the Atlantic troughing as the runs tick down. 

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Evening All. ! High Summer, and we get the Summer Monsoon:rofl: Not unusual by anyway, But we have to get this rubbish out of the way , but at least there well be some weather to talk about! It will change and our weather pattern will make most people happy sooner or later. The synoptic pattern does show some sort of plume by the end of the week but very hit and miss!!! I think the warning will be for very strong winds across the Humber Bridge during Tuesday:sorry:

freezing.gif

friday.png

Fridayx.png

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18 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Have to say that those of a summery disposition in the se of the uk should be smiling and even the nw of the country can look forward to a decent period post next weekend - the euro heights asserting themselves against the Atlantic troughing as the runs tick down. 

 
 
 
 
 
 

The ens have been rather erratic of late (post day 8 ) - bit early to call. And anything, post day 7 is subject to change.... if showing the same come Thursday, then sure.

Edited by draztik

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2 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

A very wet week ahead for some parts we could well have some issues with flooding if the GFS totals are right

96-777UK.GIF?04-12168-777UK.GIF?04-12240-777UK.GIF?04-12

High res look at the rain

arpegeuk-25-114-0.thumb.png.db6be12c7149a84d31252f1df8dc6719.png

Nothing like 2007 I hope!

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Never seen anything like this progged in June before

h500slp.png

h500slp.png

The 18z GFS is an insane run 

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