Model Output Discussions 12z 01/06/2017

[Captain Shortwave]

I guess the flip side to this is that Tuesday and Wednesday could very well be decent summer days with sunny spells and temperatures into the high twenties thanks to Gert and the associated parent low it phases with becoming slow moving to our west. If the fronts stay far enougb west and the warm air from the continent is advected our way cleanly then I wouldn't rule out 30c being reached on Wednesday. (The GFS is going for 27c and usual conditions apply regarding that model). Of course it is only in the last 24 hours that these days have suddenly been forecast to be very warm as opposed to changeable with Gert moving east over the north of the UK. Hence perhaps it is worth keeping an open mind regarding the end of the week onwards.

[Man With Beard]

Yes CS, best to focus on the here and now, which looks increasingly like a return to Heatwave Tuesday (and that's for most of England/Wales, not just the SE). I think it is difficult to confidently predict beyond Wednesday really, given all the changes going on - last night's ECM clusters showed a very clear split for the end of next week between either the trough getting stuck close by, or the trough pushing through quickly and high pressure building in behind.

[northwestsnow]

8 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Yes CS, best to focus on the here and now, which looks increasingly like a return to Heatwave Tuesday (and that's for most of England/Wales, not just the SE). I think it is difficult to confidently predict beyond Wednesday really, given all the changes going on - last night's ECM clusters showed a very clear split for the end of next week between either the trough getting stuck close by, or the trough pushing through quickly and high pressure building in behind.

The trough will be stuck over us of that you can be sure.

Still think we will get a spell of HP in the non too distant future..

[mb018538]

7 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

The trough will be stuck over us of that you can be sure.

Still think we will get a spell of HP in the non too distant future..

Yes, I mean we've only been waiting 6 weeks (and counting) for a decent settled spell now...

[Frosty.]

7 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

The trough will be stuck over us of that you can be sure.

Still think we will get a spell of HP in the non too distant future..

The law of averages suggests a sustained settled spell will occur at some point..this summer has really gone down the pan in the last 5 / 6 weeks.

[northwestsnow]

18 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

The law of averages suggests a sustained settled spell will occur at some point..this summer has really gone down the pan in the last 5 / 6 weeks.

It has mate..to be honest it never really started here but hey ho.

Hopefully a couple of nice warm days tue and wed then back to grot as the trough like a moth to a flame ..

[Frosty.]

10 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

It has mate..to be honest it never really started here but hey ho.

Hopefully a couple of nice warm days tue and wed then back to grot as the trough like a moth to a flame ..

Chin up mate we have winter to look forward to soon and as you say, early next week looks better, indeed potentially very warm and humid tues into wed with sunny spells and then thundery showers but I have an eye on winter, hopefully a much better one for coldies and snow lovers!

[Summer Sun]

Tuesday and Wednesday could be close to 30c in parts of the SE as a short burst of heat moves in thanks to ex-hurricane Gert

[Summer Sun]

The heat on Wednesday is more restricted to the SE compared to the 00z

[Frosty.]

Certainly looks like tues / wed will see a welcome return of summery weather to southern uk with increasing amounts of sunshine and temperatures soaring into the mid / high 20's celsius followed by a growing chance of thundery showers. From later next week onwards it appears to be a largely north-south split with northern uk generally unsettled and cooler whereas the south looks drier and brighter with warm sunny spells and still a risk of thundery showers across the s / se.

[The PIT]

Apart from a hiccup MOnday here it looks a summery week to come up. Will be interesting what ECM comes up with.

[Frosty.]

A return to respectable summer weather next week across especially southern uk on the Gfs 12z with tues / wed the warmest days, midweek looks very warm across the south-east, staying on the warm side further south where the best of the fine weather would be.

[Frosty.]

I would happily take what the Gfs 12z is showing during late August / early September as apart from an unsettled blip in the mid range, high pressure builds in strongly and slowly migrates to the east with a summery spell, especially for the s / e.

Edited August 19, 2017 by Frosty.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

First one my birthday, Frosty! often decent but very rarely had a 30° birthday

[Frosty.]

Really great charts later on the Gfs 12z with high pressure intensifying to the east, would be a very good way to finish this meteorological summer and start of autumn.

[Mark wheeler]

Ecm coming out doesn't look too shabby so far especially further south and east  and also given the unsettled weather we have indured in recent weeks gone by , I might be able to get the paddling pool out  for the kids again this summer after all .

 

Edited August 19, 2017 by Mark wheeler

[Frosty.]

Although ex hurricane Gert got torn to shreads when it hit the jet stream we can thank it's remnants for our warm up early / mid next week and depending on sunshine amounts, the south / south-east could hit 29c 84f / 30c 86f and possibly a notch higher on wednesday across the SE. The Ecm 12z shows another pulse of warmth heading towards clipping the s / se on friday too..all in all, a better week than we have seen for some time, especially temperature wise.

Edited August 19, 2017 by Frosty.

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

Oh look on the GFS 12z, The minute September shows its face and the HP can finally make it out to the East, something its been unable to do all summer. Its like its been blocked out West leaving us with very limited S'lys/SE'lys.

As with every new season when it rolls round theres always a bite back into the previous season so we shall see... 

[Man With Beard]

A twist for the end of the week developing on all models it seems - a diving trough to the SW giving a temporary burst of continental air to southern and eastern areas, or maybe more areas if the GEM and ECM are to be believed:

      

Ensembles not really running with the more extreme (and nice!) idea from the GEM - in fact, the GEFS hardly seeing the pattern at all, with only 10% of its runs in this cluster (90% more straight line west to east)

ECM ensemble clusters were certainly playing with the idea this morning - 3 out of 5 clusters sort of interested in the disruption:

Will it be another case of the ops leading the ens at short range?

[Frosty.]

Following weeks and weeks of mostly atlantic dross through the second half of this summer, the Gem 12z is a real tease this evening with high pressure building in strongly during next weekend into week 2 with continental heat eventually too..back to the reliable and the week ahead is full of interest with the warmest spell for some considerable time and some sunshine for all of us plus a growing chance of thundery showers / storms during the midweek period..could we see a strong finish to the meteorological summer ? ..we sure deserve it!

Edited August 19, 2017 by Frosty.

[phil nw.]

Along with all the models the UKMO charts are showing a short burst of continental heat for days 3 and 4 for southern areas but is swept away by day 5 as cooler air follows in off the Atlantic.

Still nice to see a late taste of Summer warmth though,brief as it will be, thanks to the tropical air brought in by the remnants of an ex-Hurricane.We can see from the T72hrs fax we are in the warm sector of the system positioned out to the west.

A look at the 2mtr temp. for Warks shows the mid-week warm up followed by a bit of a cool off as the cold front moves through later in the week.

It looks like the low will be slow moving to the west of Ireland for the coming week so after the short warm spell fresher air moves in from the Atlantic on a more south westerly wind.

It looks like then we go back to square one with the best weather furthest south.

We just can't seem to retain any longer lasting influence from the Azores high this year as we continue to be plagued by the jet tracking across the Atlantic around our latitude-story of our Summer it seems.

[Frosty.]

I don't think it matters much about the fag end of this summer, I'm more interested in how autumn evolves and what impact (if any) that could have on the upcoming winter. It will make a nice change to see some proper warmth returning for a couple of days next week with very warm / hot potential for the s / se for a time and it would of course be lovely if the Gem 12z verified but if this summer just fizzles out the way it has for the last six weeks..it won't be a surprise..roll on winter!

 

Edited August 19, 2017 by Frosty.

[knocker]

There is no indication in last night's anomalies for any movement away from changeable/unsettled in the 6-14 day period with temps varying around the average, perhaps later a tad below in Scotland.

The pattern in the earlier period is not unfamiliar with low pressure over the arctic which is easing considerable but with associated troughs Greenaland  down eastern N. America and south east to the UK stretching down to Iberia. A ridge central Canada and positive anomalies in mid Atlantic with the Azores HP pushing a little north. and also some positive anomalies north of the UK.

All of this amounts to a WNW/W flow easing considerable in the east which would indicate surface low pressure over the UK with quite possibly a showery regime with systems popping around the high pressure but this definitely an area where the det outputs will need to sort the detail

No huge change in the later period except semblance of the the mid Atlantic ridge has gone thus a flatter upper flow and with the trough to the NW becoming the major influence  I'm afraid a continuation of the unsettled outlook.

The weather today should be quite pleasant for most but later fronts will effect the west moving NE so rain overnight and tomorrow, particularly in the NW but okay in the south.

Tuesday midday see the filling low west of Ireland with showers effecting there and Scotland whilst elsewhere it will a pleasant warm day.

From here the low moves slowly east and loiters around Scotland bringing showers and some longer periods of rain mainly effecting the north although the south does not get off scot free. At the same time it gets a little energy boost from the north west.

Which brings us to the weekend. By saturday the low has tracked into the North Sea and the UK is in a col so a reasonable dry day And Sunday shouldn't be too bad either but by 18z the fronts from the next trough have arrived in the NW and track south east to be in the North Sea by 122z Monday. And just a reminder of the N/S split tendency in these patterns

Edited August 20, 2017 by knocker

[knocker]

the general theme of the ecm is similar to the gfs and by the weekend the UK is in a col with an upper trough that has dropped south just adjacent to Iberia, So dry and quite pleasant over Saturday but this only continues in the southern half on Sunday as as fronts start impacting the north during the day. These clrear to the east leaving the UK in a showery westerly before the next low arrives NW of Scotland by Tuesday 00z. I'm afraid, not unusually, Scotland and N.I. are copping the worst of the weather which is reflected in the rainfall figures.

I'm not sure why we are getting intermittent slight rain in these parts this morning.

[Summer Sun]

UKMO is having go at building pressure for the start of the bank holiday weekend

ECM doesn't agree as yet