Model Output Discussions 12z 01/06/2017

[knocker]

Needless to say the ecm is having little to do with gfs evolution and with no effective blocking in the east little to stop the west-east energy movement with the 100kt jet always in the vicinity of the UK and thus the Atlantic being the dominant factor with only transient ridging and the run ending with a deep low to the NW of the Hebrides.

[mushymanrob]

2 hours ago, knocker said:

Last night's anomalies show no inclination for any significant changes in the next 14 days so the overall theme of remaining unsettled with the usual N/S caveats and the temps no great shakes around average or a tad below continues.

 

completely agree, im ignoring the gfs outputs, until there is a significant change in the anomaly outputs - the gfs lengthy settled spell simply will not, can not, happen (other then a transitory 24-48 hour event).

[Sky Full]

People will no doubt decide for themselves whether the GFS is on to something and here are some of the optimistic 0Z charts from 19th August to the 25th - this is an upgrade from yesterday so going in the right direction for the time being.....

    

    

    

    

That would be a full week of really pleasant weather.  This isn't hope-casting by the way, it's just commenting on model output.  But I am guessing it's the minority of members here who are not hoping these charts verify....

 

[Summer Sun]

Oh hello, summer! Nice to meet you again

[Man With Beard]

Not much support for the GFS 00Z in last night's ECM ensembles. Only the smallest cluster (6/51) looks similar by T276. The main three clusters either changeable or unsettled.

The GFS has been overblowing these summer highs in the T200-T300 range for a few years now. It just can't be trusted.

Edited August 13, 2017 by Man With Beard

[summer blizzard]

Word of warning. Tropical Depression 8 has formed and there appears to be a divide between the global models that we watch keeping it weak and the statistical models which make it a hurricane. 

Since this is recurving into the Jet Stream, if the global models are not proved correct then we could see a readjustment in the output as they deal with a larger surge of energy than expected. 

[Frosty.]

57 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

completely agree, im ignoring the gfs outputs, until there is a significant change in the anomaly outputs - the gfs lengthy settled spell simply will not, can not, happen (other then a transitory 24-48 hour event).

That's a bit of a defeatist attitude mushy, should we all just chuck the towel in then?..I think there are grounds for optimism regarding late August.

[The PIT]

Deep FI hot snap in theory should go the same way as most FI scenario's but who knows. 

[draztik]

Stark. A reversal. 

((temp anom. days 10-15, GFS 0z, GFS 6z))

 

Edited August 13, 2017 by draztik

[Frosty.]

The GEFS 6z mean shows considerable support for improvement beyond the week ahead with the azores high ridging in across the uk with increasingly settled and warmer weather during late August, especially for england and wales.

[Summer Sun]

London ens backs the idea of a drier and warmer end to August

[mushymanrob]

6 hours ago, Frosty. said:

That's a bit of a defeatist attitude mushy, should we all just chuck the towel in then?..I think there are grounds for optimism regarding late August.

summer is gone for me m8y, but anyway...  not defeatist, just realistic based on what the anomaly charts are predicting. currently they dont allow for a gfs type settled/hot spell other then transitory ridging. we know the anomaly charts are more accurate, look at today for eg, pleasant? yes! but its not the heatwave the gfs was predicting several days ago... no warm uppers...no large high across southern uk. whilst the gfs and ecm were suggesting this would be a decent lengthy settled spell the anomalies were never on board - maintaining the strong upper westerly flow.

theres grounds for optimism as its looking like pressure wont be as low after this coming week, so it could be drier and warmer, but until theres anomaly support for the gfs - ill not believe it will happen. no point in getting up false hope when theres an elephant in the room saying 'no'.

edit... ive just viewed the 06z, that has dropped the previous runs amplified high pressure build, and is far more in line IMHO with what the anomaly charts suggest...

Edited August 13, 2017 by mushymanrob
new data

[Frosty.]

The GEFS 12z mean beyond the week ahead looks increasingly encouraging regarding a spell of settled and warmer summery weather as high pressure builds in across the uk during the late August period.

Edited August 13, 2017 by Frosty.

[knocker]

To illustrate why it is dangerous to put too much store on individual runs in these fluid patterns look no further than the the latter stages of the last two ecm runs where the 12z promotes the mid Atlantic ridge behind the trough, around T168, much more than the midnight thus the ensuing evolution is different albeit the overall picture remains unsettled.

[Frosty.]

Well I'm just looking for signs of hope and I've seen plenty of evidence again today, especially from the Gefs mean charts to suggest our weather will improve beyond the week ahead with the azores high becoming more influential, at least across southern uk. The week ahead isn't a disaster either, tomorrow looks dry and warm across the south-east and a little bump of high pressure midweek bringing a fine and warm day for many.

[knocker]

A only person who has mentioned disaster is you and anyway over the next 36 hours it's good to see the south east hanging in there although there might have to be a quick scamper under the pier at Margate.

Edited August 13, 2017 by knocker

[ANYWEATHER]

Evening All ,despite the ever changing weather ,certainly not a wash out....... ridge/low etc,  just about suits everyone.... At the ten day range  gfs paints a better picture  ecm not so .oh well this is the British Weather Looking for hot weather, you better go south

[Frosty.]

Just to add to my earlier comments regarding encouraging signs beyond the week ahead..these are from the GEFS 12z and show plenty of warm anticyclonic potential for late August! 

[Man With Beard]

Looking through all the ops, ensembles and clusters, the NOAA 6-10 fits them well:

Ridging appearing on almost every run tonight, but as usual the million dollar question is how far and how strongly. Typically the GFS and GEFS want pressure to rise right up to northern Scotland, but the ECM op and ens see the Atlantic pushing the ridge flat much faster.

Likely result: some good days for all as the final third of August approaches, but significantly better towards the SE.

[geordiekev]

So the more reliable models showing a showery end to the meteorological summer. Ain't no surprise,  once July bails out then the continuing season normally follows suit.  once again meto sugar coating the next 2 weeks with a ridge in SE and no mention of 8c in Newcastle last few nights, sunny yes but cold wind from a very bizarre southerly direction all day. Nice to see blue skies but feels like winter up here. 

Edited August 14, 2017 by geordiekev

[knocker]

The anomalies last night were still indicating no significant change in the overall pattern and thus the previous assessment of changeable/unsettled weather remains which of course by definition includes periods of pleasant and quite settled intervals particularly in the south. A pattern which exemplifies a N/S split.

Thus the main features continue to be low pressure over the Arctic and associated trough in the Iceland area with ridges central Canada and, importantly as far as we are concerned, a strong ridge in eastern Europe. Thus a quite strong westerly upper flow tending to back the further north and east you get and thus a tendency for systems to track NE resulting in the aforementioned N/S split as the warm/colder air interacts in the flow.

No appreciable difference in the later period but the upper flow is weaker and trend towards more positive anomalies in the Atlantic is perhaps encouraging that a more sustainable settled period may be possible, particularly in the south. Temps varying around the average, perhaps  a tad below, with the usual geographic variations.

The usual caveat that the det. runs will decide the detail of all of this.

This  morning's gfs sees today's rain clear away tomorrow leaving showers before a transient ridge builds giving a mainly fine day on Wednesday. But the next depression has already arrived south of Iceland and the associated fronts are already impacting the north west by Wednesday evening.and these continue to track east bringing some wet weather to most over weds/Thursday.

By Saturday the depression has tracked ESE to be over the north North sea and is  filling rapidly leaving the UK in a W/NW showery airstream Friday/Saturday. But from this point the gfs goes into it's building high pressure routine and apart from some impact from systems tracking north east in the north west this remains influential for all of next week so dry and quite warm, with temps above average at times accompanied by little wind. Everyone would take this evolution at a blink but the question is will it verify as it's next week we are talking about so it's now a matter of awaiting the ecm.

This morning's mean anomaly is not fully supportive of this scenario.

 

Edited August 14, 2017 by knocker

[SteveB]

43 minutes ago, geordiekev said:

So the more reliable models showing a showery end to the meteorological summer. Ain't no surprise,  once July bails out then the continuing season normally follows suit.  once again meto sugar coating the next 2 weeks with a ridge in SE and no mention of 8c in Newcastle last few nights, sunny yes but cold wind from a very bizarre southerly direction all day. Nice to see blue skies but feels like winter up here. 

Feels like Autumn down here, and will stay that way until March Next year.

[Summer Sun]

GFS says summer isn't done yet

Edited August 14, 2017 by Summer Sun

[knocker]

Predictable the ecm is not in agreement with gfs from next weekend onwards. It has the ridge very transient over the weekend and has the next system rushing in on Sunday bringing with it some wet weather for that day and to a lesser extent Monday with only the far south perhaps escaping. Then the usual scenario of ridging which proceeds to get squashed by a trough ingressing from the north west.

The detail for next weekend and after is a long way from being nailed down

 

[Summer Sun]

London ens showing it turning much drier as we progress through next week surely not a dry bank holiday weekend?!