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Model Output Discussions 12z 01/06/2017


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10 hours ago, damianslaw said:

Mmm echos of the worst vagaries of recent poor summers 2007, 2008, 2011 and 2012 springing to mind at the moment, with the pattern set to a default unsettled often cool one, by August we start to see the influence of ex tropical storm systems and this year, things are looking quite active compared to many a recent one, with lots of activity combined with a southerly fairly flat jetstream, things don't bode well for the rest of August. Low pressure systems and only weak ridge development seems the order of the day, and with the UK on the north side of the jet it will remain persistantly distinctly average but more often cooler than average temperature wise.. Oh dear summer 2017 fast going down the pan I think..

Yes it really has been a poor summer apart from that one week at the end of June and that seems such a long time ago now. looking at the years you quote and thinking of the winters that followed on... could be a pattern. I'm done with summer now and looking forward to a cold dark white winter. any hints at this early stage from the more experienced folk as to what we could be heading into?

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
18 minutes ago, More Snow said:

Yes it really has been a poor summer apart from that one week at the end of June and that seems such a long time ago now. looking at the years you quote and thinking of the winters that followed on... could be a pattern. I'm done with summer now and looking forward to a cold dark white winter. any hints at this early stage from the more experienced folk as to what we could be heading into?

1

Have a look in the Autumn thread

Edited by Summer Sun
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The Gem 00z ends well with summery warmth returning to england and wales:)

The Gfs 00z also shows some warm settled weather after next week with high pressure / strong ridging.

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Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Crymych, Pembrokeshire. 150m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes of all kinds...
  • Location: Crymych, Pembrokeshire. 150m asl
24 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

The Gem 00z ends well with summery warmth returning to england and wales:)

The Gfs 00z also shows some warm settled weather after next week with high pressure / strong ridging.

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Well done Frosty!  Keep your positive posts coming to cheer us up!   We still have more than half of August and all of September to look for the return of summer and how many times have the models flipped from dire predictions to really warm or hot conditions in just a few days?  Let's not lose hope yet - the models can only work with the data they have available today and past performance shows that they get it wrong almost as often as they get it right.

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Posted
  • Location: East Ham, London
  • Location: East Ham, London

Morning all :)

I'm not quite sure what to make of the models this morning with some very divergent evolutions. GEM is the most progressive in terms of bringing the LP through as early as Thursday and then (as yesterday) toys with the idea of somebody's ex TS blowing into an intense LP which drags the jet back north so Frosty has a nice chart to show us all come T+240.

Trouble is, neither ECM nor GFS want to play that game. ECM is a tad better than yesterday's 00Z which wouldn't be difficult while GFS is perhaps a notch worse after a promising start though we see plenty of northern blocking and end up with a thundery low developing over NE France.

I suspect we'll get a reasonable few days in the immediate future before the next spell of prolonged rain towards the end of the coming week after which it's anyone's guess. 

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Posted
  • Location: Crymych, Pembrokeshire. 150m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes of all kinds...
  • Location: Crymych, Pembrokeshire. 150m asl

For example, I wouldn't say no to these conditions if they verified:

GFS 21st to the 25th August....

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Not tropical conditions, admittedly, but perfectly acceptable for late summer and who knows, it might just happen....

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Next week is a write off according to the Gfs 6z with an increasingly unsettled spell but beyond that there are signs of summer returning with higher pressure and warmer surface conditions with plenty of dry and sunny weather, especially across the southern half of the uk..even some hot and humid conditions with a risk of thunderstorms later in the run.:)

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Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The GEFS 6z mean shows a generally unsettled spell next week, especially the second half of the working week..not raining all the time of course, there will be some sunshine but the main headline next week is unsettled..however, from the end of next week onwards shows a significant improvement with pressure rising and increasingly settled and warmer conditions, especially across southern uk.:)

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Posted
  • Location: sunny sunny Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Bartlett style mild and benign
  • Location: sunny sunny Bournemouth

Unfortunately the improving weather is always a week away, of late,  if it is there at all.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
51 minutes ago, Uncle_Barty said:

Unfortunately the improving weather is always a week away, of late,  if it is there at all.

At least someone (me) is still looking for it.:D

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Posted
  • Location: Coventry
  • Weather Preferences: anticyclonic unless a snow storm
  • Location: Coventry

The low is flatter across the atlantic and the high extends into Scandi compared to GFS 6 Z at 192 hrs.

gfsnh-0-192_heh3.png

 

2nd half of August holiday makers like myself still retain some hope. 

 

The high develops into this at 240hrs, with no atlantic incursions.

 

gfsnh-0-240_rgi6.png

Edited by BlueSkies_do_I_see
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Keep the faith gang, I've mentioned encouraging signs earlier today and the Gfs 12z shows the full potential for a late August summery spell with warm surface conditions and high pressure taking control with increasingly dry and sunny weather...potential for very warm / hot continental weather later on this run too..as did the 6z op!:D

Caution of course but there are grounds for optimism.

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Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
1 hour ago, Frosty. said:

At least someone (me) is still looking for it.:D

Like this day Frosty! unrealistic range though

ukmaxtemp.png

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1 hour ago, Frosty. said:

Keep the faith gang, I've mentioned encouraging signs earlier today and the Gfs 12z shows the full potential for a late August summery spell with warm surface conditions and high pressure taking control with increasingly dry and sunny weather...potential for very warm / hot continental weather later on this run too..as did the 6z op!:D

Caution of course but there are grounds for optimism.

 

Yes the GEFS ensembles looking much warmer and drier from 19/20th onwards. Certainly a significant improvement in FI. Subject to change of course but anything that makes Ice Man nervous in this thread and the moaning/ramping thread is cause for huge optimism IMO :D 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

A couple of posts have been moved to the moans thread, try to stick to model discussion and avoid moaning about weather preferences in here please.

Output wise, looks pretty average with some drier and warmer spells, probably close to 25c in the south at times but with cooler and more unsettled spells, to be honest the north looks pretty poor despite some transient ridges building from the Azores. Perhaps some hope of something better developing in week 2 which is showing up on multiple models now.

Edited by Captain Shortwave
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1 minute ago, 40*C said:

Ignore the chart and ignore the hope casters that lead us up their garden paths and turn them into genuine forecasts. . It wont come off just like the 100s of others this summer. The sypnotics are still looking as vile as they looked on July 25th all set for a cold and wet month. I can't see 25C being breached again this year unless theres a big turnaround.

Note: ECM 00 op was very vile post next weekend.  

With all due respect this isn't hopecasting at all.

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The first chart shows a good cluster of warmer uppers showing their hand after the 19th and the second chart shows a clear trend for high pressure, more sustained high pressure at that, from the aforementioned date. It may well trend back to unsettled conditions but we can only comment and interpret on what the models show now, and the GEFS shows, for the first time in many weeks, a return to summer-like conditions.

To say it won't come off is simply lazy and shows you haven't looked or remotely analysed recent output. The ECM 00z op is outdated now and funnily enough this is what the 12z op shows for next weekend...

192_mslp500.png?cb=672

So the settled trend is gaining cross-model support. It will be interesting and exciting to see what the models show tomorrow.

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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

Well the EC clusters had been showing quite an unsettled period from 16-23rd August but a backtrack had been gaining momentum yesterday and this morning with regards to the 20th and beyond, and now the ECM op has followed by going for the most positive cluster from this morning's set. Still dodgy for most of the coming week, but by next weekend big improvements with a strong wave of the Azores High.

Considering it is quite a backtrack from 36 hours ago, a pinch of salt still needed from me as regards the very settled scenario - but it looks increasingly like we might dodge a full blown UK trough this time.

See, unsettled forecasts can backtrack, too :)

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Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

ecmt850.192.png  h850t850eu.png

So at day 8 we have agreement on a setup reminiscent of a few 'almost' weekends in the past month or so; kind of warm but likely limited at least away from the SE corner by lots of cloud around. Question is can we for once build HP further across the UK from there? GFS and GEM say 'yeah sure', but ECM 'kind of but not really'.

Hmm.

The C. Pac trades are having another resurgence this weekend but it's not as strong as was originally predicted by the models and there are signs of some more sustained reduction emerging for next week, particularly around the Dateline and a little east of there;

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You can see how our earlier chance of getting a good break from the La Nina-like LP dominated pattern was thwarted before it had really got going (the blob of yellows around the Dateline 7-10th Aug) and as a result we've only got a couple of 'ridge-ish' days before the next assault by Atlantic storms.

We can only hope this next chance doesn't get cut down as well else we'll most likely see GFS moving toward something more like what ECM has this evening. Given the cooing of the C. Pacific tropical waters by the recent strong trades it will take some active atmospheric forcing away from it to prevent a quick return to the La Nina-like atmospheric state.

The autumn prospects are in the balance what with this uncertain ENSO tendency (is this just variability that longer-term will be around the neutral line, or the beginning of a proper La Nina spell?). So are the winter ones to some extent but it's far too early to think about that! :whistling::D

Edited by Singularity
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Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

GFS 18z actually puts forward a trend toward earlier and stronger ridging of HP across from the Azores... it's been quite some time since that manner of trend was last seen more than very briefly.

The broader scale idea here is the Thu-Fri trough disrupting with the resulting shallow secondary low sliding over to SE Europe and providing support for the big blocking high that will have been over E. Europe for some time up to that point in time to finally make a move west and give the Azores High a helping hand.

Its pretty much the best way to break out of the La Niña-like pattern without relying on major upstream changes in forcing, but it requires a lot to fall into place in a nice orderly fashion. 

Then again, so did today's Premier League results ;) 

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Posted
  • Location: Skelmersdale
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: 6-10 degrees. Spring 12-16 degrees. Summer 17-22 degrees.
  • Location: Skelmersdale

Just once this summer I would like the models to show the development of high pressure *without* heat. I am firmly of the mind that we cannot have HP without it. I would LOVE to be proven wrong.

Edited by Ice Man 85
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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Last night's anomalies show no inclination for any significant changes in the next 14 days so the overall theme of remaining unsettled with the usual N/S caveats and the temps no great shakes around average or a tad below continues.

The pattern in the ten day time frame remains low pressure over the Arctic and a ridge central Canada into NW with the two key elements as far as the UK is concerned the ridge in eastern Europe and the trough to the north west in the Iceland region. It is perhaps the strength and orientation of these two that may dictate the influence, or not, of the Azores HP which in any case seems set to be mainly restricted to the south of the UK. As usual it will be up to the det runs to sort the detail and variation caused by the interaction of the cold/warm (relatively speaking) air.

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So on to this morning. A warm front approaching from the west later today will bring some showery rain in places tomorrow and similarly a cold front on Tuesday before clearing. After some transient ridging the next Atlantic low arrives to the NW with the associated fronts across Ireland by 18z Wednesday.

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These duly traverse the UK bringing a band of rain on Thursday giving way to showery conditions as the low pressure remains influential until the next ridge moves in by Saturday 00z. Apart from the odd occasion when systems to the NW impact Scotland high pressure remains more or less the order of the day

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The reason for this would appear to be the treatment of the aforementioned east European and Canadian ridges which, for a time, extend their influence and thus initiate some movement of the Azores and limits trough development and movement. Even when the east European ridge collapses the west-east trough conduit has been realigned SW-NE. To my mind this is a very precarious evolution and is a fair way into the future, and with just some minor changes it's a different ball game so without  ecm support and from the GEFs best just left in the pending tray.

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And looking this morning's GEFs anomalies they do not support and Greenland extension of the ridge but, and this is far more believable and only my opinion of course, the east European ridge is quite influential in diverting the upper flow NE and allowing the Azores to push north in the vicinity of the  UK, A scenario that the gfs has tended to promote more than the EPS.

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Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

Yes Matt, Certainly a turn around from the GFS into Wk2. With High Pressure over the UK and temps possibly touching 30c in the South.

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

GFS well out on its own - the 00z op is a huuuuuge outlier temps wise, but virtually all ensembles are dry, meaning the low pressure backed scenario painted by the ecm and ukmo isnt favoured. You'd still back the ecm to be correct, but of course we all hope the GFS is onto something here and we finally get a nice settled spell.

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