Model Output Discussions 12z 01/06/2017

[Summer Sun]

The coming weekend doesn't look too bad with high pressure gradually building in

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 12z shows some pleasant august weather on the way, next week there's  plenty of high pressure ridging and indicates some welcome dry weather and warm sunshine at times.

Edited August 7, 2017 by Frosty.

[Frosty.]

According to the Gefs 12z mean there will at least be some decent fine and warm august weather at times during the next few weeks, especially across the south .

[knocker]

Quite familiar

[ANYWEATHER]

Evening All , looking at the ten day range from both gfs and ecm it really shows how reluctant for pressure to build across the nation in this time period. Despite this however , it wont be a wash out with some good sunny and warm spells for many areas , but the devil will be in the detail , for instance like the next couple of days as regards precip.

[Midlands Ice Age]

On ‎02‎/‎08‎/‎2017 at 19:04, knocker said:

Interesting that the gfs this evening has resurrected the idea from not long ago., which to some extent the ecm also played with, and that was to deconstruct the upper trough just to the west of us. create a cut off low. which phases with the low pressure over Iberia and deepens as amplication of the HP takes place to the west and the east.

Thus Monday 12z sees this process underway

twenty four hours later a general area of low pressure over western Europe with the low just beginning to intensify.in the southern North Sea

And from this point it deepens rapidly and raises the possibility of severe gales along the NE coast. Now all this is extremely unlikey to happen but it will be interesting to see if the ecm pays lip service to the idea.

Knocker ...

Picked up your post from 5 days ago...

It looks as if the GFS at this stage has got it spot on!!! (Unfortunately, as a lot of people in the East could well get flooded"!)

(this from an avid ECM fan)

GFS has wandered around with different solutions since then, but has always come back with us.

ECM joined the trend 3 -4 days ago...

MIA

Edited August 7, 2017 by Midlands Ice Age

[Man With Beard]

6 clusters on the ECM ensembles at T72. Doesn't inspire too much confidence!! Mostly struggling with the exact end game for our low to the E/SE. Most clusters are actually a slight improvement on the op in the short range. 

However, a large trough approaches on most ensembles by D7, unlikely to stall sufficiently to allow a plume, so a reasonable spell in the south will be 3-5 days at most, maybe 1-3 days further north. 

And the EC clusters continue to be very much in favour of an unsettled period D8-D15. Gulp!!

[Allseasons-Si]

6 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

6 clusters on the ECM ensembles at T72. Doesn't inspire too much confidence!! Mostly struggling with the exact end game for our low to the E/SE. Most clusters are actually a slight improvement on the op in the short range. 

However, a large trough approaches on most ensembles by D7, unlikely to stall sufficiently to allow a plume, so a reasonable spell in the south will be 3-5 days at most, maybe 1-3 days further north. 

And the EC clusters continue to be very much in favour of an unsettled period D8-D15. Gulp!!

And looking at the 8-14 days from NOAA,they are on the same hym sheet,surely this obismal weather cannot last and i am sick of the wind,this lp to our NW has been a dominant feature for weeks now,get lost.

[summer blizzard]

11 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

6 clusters on the ECM ensembles at T72. Doesn't inspire too much confidence!! Mostly struggling with the exact end game for our low to the E/SE. Most clusters are actually a slight improvement on the op in the short range. 

However, a large trough approaches on most ensembles by D7, unlikely to stall sufficiently to allow a plume, so a reasonable spell in the south will be 3-5 days at most, maybe 1-3 days further north. 

And the EC clusters continue to be very much in favour of an unsettled period D8-D15. Gulp!!

 

1 minute ago, Allseasons-si said:

And looking at the 8-14 days from NOAA,they are on the same hym sheet,surely this obismal weather cannot last and i am sick of the wind,this lp to our NW has been a dominant feature for weeks now,get lost.

Not a shock given that the trades are forecast to surge (if anything its worse with every run). 

[knocker]

Last night's anomalies indicated no significant changes in the 14 day period so further comment this morning is superfluous.Nearer to the here and now  and the next couple of days is of much more interest with thundery lows and frontal systems around that could well lead to some bursts of significant rainfall in some areas, particular in the east and south as storms track NE (although not confined to here). Thus there is a danger of flash floods if you happen to cop a torrential downpour in a vulnerable area.

I suppose the first thing to note about this morning's gfs is that next week it is busy promoting the strong North American ridge into a Greenland high and a negatively tilted trough across the Atlantic which, as it is strongly at odds with the anomalies, for the moment must be taken with a large pinch of salt.

Anyway Thursday the current low has finally exited stage right and a transient ridge is the order of the day on so probably the best day of the week which won't be difficult. Transient because the next trough has tracked east to be NNE of Scotland by 00z saturday with the associated fronts traversing the country on Friday and thus another wet day. This then clears and the ridge reenters the fray leading to not a bad weekend by recent standards with showers becoming less frequent and probably confined to the north and west.Temps around average but with light winds it will be quite pleasant in the sunny periods. But by Monday the next shallow low has arrived from the NW with the fronts down the Irish Sea about to cross the country bringing more showery rain.

From here a high cell slips over the UK by midweek but the aforementioned Greenland high/Atlantic trough, note where the jet is,  becomes evident which promises all sorts of surface shenanigans, not least another thunder low from the south. Best noted and ignored for the moment

So remaining unsettled but how much rather depends on your location.

EDIT

This morning's GEFs anomaly does not support the Greenland high scenario.

 

Edited August 8, 2017 by knocker

[knocker]

If this were winter the defibrillators would be on standby. The ecm has the N. American ridge pushing into Greenland thus precipitating some amplification in the western Atlantic and the trough dropping over the UK But of course it isn't winter and it's next week.

[Matthew.]

Looking like Thursday, Sunday and Monday could be the best days by the ECM although the weekend maybe not too bad. Lets face it it could be a lot worse.

[mb018538]

Trough dropping over the UK knocker?? It dropped over us a month agin and hasn't buggered off!

[knocker]

4 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Trough dropping over the UK knocker?? It dropped over us a month agin and hasn't buggered off!

Ah but it's the height of the drop that matters.

[northwestsnow]

Think the message this morning is the further South you are the better!

Think its fair to say we need a pattern change to get out us out of this - is way above my pay grade to fatham out how or where this pattern change is going to come from , i suppose at least there will be some nicer days amongst the dross-

ecm 48

ecm120

 

ecm144

 

 

But it does end badly -

ecm 240

Note the huge high anomaly way out in the western Atlantic,thats been there for pretty much weeks on end and is doing us absolutely no favours at all.

 

 

[mushymanrob]

1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:

Note the huge high anomaly way out in the western Atlantic,thats been there for pretty much weeks on end and is doing us absolutely no favours at all.

 

 

yep, a classic case of the azores high being the 'enemy of summer' , too far off to produce anything decent for us, and it also allows troughing nearby.

[knocker]

The case of the migrating ridge

[mb018538]

I did mention fairly recently that northern blocking may get established going on some of the AO forecasts....looks like judging by the anomalies we may have a huge Greenland high in 10 days time. Get ready to say the last rites of summer 2017.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

0ne off decent day though this thurs! could reach 19° 

[knocker]

3 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

I did mention fairly recently that northern blocking may get established going on some of the AO forecasts....looks like judging by the anomalies we may have a huge Greenland high in 10 days time. Get ready to say the last rites of summer 2017.

Not to forget that's the op above the GEFS means are not as bullish and back to a very familiar pattern. Not that that is good news but not unexpected.

 

[mb018538]

Not good at all...trough re-invigorated, and we are back to square one again. Our only hope is a tropical storm/hurricane turning north and throwing a massive buckle into the jetstream.

[Summer Sun]

Autumnal end to ECM

[Frosty.]

 

28 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Our only hope is a tropical storm/hurricane turning north and throwing a massive buckle into the jetstream.

More chance of seeing pigs fly

[knocker]

41 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Not good at all...trough re-invigorated, and we are back to square one again. Our only hope is a tropical storm/hurricane turning north and throwing a massive buckle into the jetstream.

This is TC99L south of Greenland but rather than buckle it might engage with the jet stream. That is of course if it dies end up there

[ANYWEATHER]

Evening All , in the days ahead expect similar weather to the last ten days ...no weather charts tonight as you have seen one low and you have seen them all Mind you its only a few weeks ago that people were moaning how dry it is especially in south east Britain along with the media putting up that rivers and streams are running very low or even drying up, Mother nature always takes care of things