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Model Output Discussions 12z 01/06/2017


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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
33 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

ECM going all Autumnal must be the school holidays...

ECMOPEU00_192_1.thumb.png.adb32e0362f7aa633235b3f4e4431756.png

 

Hard to look at ,and equally hard to see any quick route to warmth from there..

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Although the models show an unsettled weekend the weather looks very interesting with a mixture of sunshine and heavy showers with hail and thunder..I don't mind that, in fact I like it!:D

tumblr_mpuzyz36Tx1sy1yolo1_500.gif

Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
55 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Now we're into a pattern that the models are usually more accurate with, I feel comfortable to speculate out to D8. An unsettled weekend, then a rather better couple of days next week with the mid-20s likely again, before fronts cross the country from north to south Wednesday into Thursday. And then this for next Friday: 

ECM1-192.GIF?20-12  gem-0-192.png?00  gfs-0-192.png

I can't see anywhere escaping the effects of the low, but the questions are over the strength of the wind in the west, and whether the south might escape the worst of any wet weather.

The ensemble mean charts sit somewhere between the most northerly and southerly extents:

gens-21-1-192.png  EDM1-192.GIF?20-12

Another unsettled weekend for most, then, is the most likely outcome. 

To early to guess beyond that - current data suggests that the following week could either lift the trough (=more warm sunshine) or reinforce the trough (=more cool rain) - or even more likely, alternate between the two.

I did see suggestions from the NOAA that settled weather is very unlikely, but I think we need to wait for it to settle down a bit - its current 6-10 day chart shows developments that the corresponding 8-14 day charts did not see at all (compare below):

610hghts.20170719.fcst.gif  814hghts.20170715.fcst.gif  814hghts.20170716.fcst.gif  814hghts.20170717.fcst.gif

 

I am not sure your comparisons are sound as far as I see it. But we each are entitled to our viewpoint so no big argument from me. I reckon the overall idea of the changes in the 500 mb flow in the 6-10 day time scale through the summer have been not far out on 70% of occasions.

got visitors with me so cannot show the 6-10 day chart about a week ago to compare with the 00z 500 mb flow today. Not that I have any real idea if it is in the right ball park. It could be one of the 30% that were not really good guidance.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
1 minute ago, johnholmes said:

I am not sure your comparisons are sound as far as I see it. But we each are entitled to our viewpoint so no big argument from me. I reckon the overall idea of the changes in the 500 mb flow in the 6-10 day time scale through the summer have been not far out on 70% of occasions.

got visitors with me so cannot show the 6-10 day chart about a week ago to compare with the 00z 500 mb flow today. Not that I have any real idea if it is in the right ball park. It could be one of the 30% that were not really good guidance.

 

John I imagine you will be absolutely right when it comes to the 6-10 day charts - but my point was that the 8-14 day charts a few days ago did not see the huge trough that looks set to split Iceland and Scotland next week - and so perhaps worth taking the 8-14 day chart with a slightly bigger pinch of salt?

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
9 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

John I imagine you will be absolutely right when it comes to the 6-10 day charts - but my point was that the 8-14 day charts a few days ago did not see the huge trough that looks set to split Iceland and Scotland next week - and so perhaps worth taking the 8-14 day chart with a slightly bigger pinch of salt?

Yes I would agree with that sentiment, the 8-14 are more variable and do have to used with a great deal of caution. Usually, usually (!) IF they follow much as the 6-10 they are right more often than wrong. What degree of 'right' is another can of worms as well. On occasion they do flag up a change which the 6-10 have not yet done then the 6-10 follows but again hard to have any rules. The main one is 2-3 days of continuity the same as when comparing NOAA to EC-GFS outputs. Good fun though.

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Posted
  • Location: Kendray,Barnsley,God's county.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow freezing fog heatwave thunderstorm
  • Location: Kendray,Barnsley,God's county.

Of to Blackpool for 5 days next Wednesday so hoping the transient ridge has got more balls than that's showing and stay a while longer, here's hoping.lets see some upgrades from the 12z.

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

I would agree with the above - the anomalies certainly didn't show this massive low/trough that's about to wreak havoc! It was more a gentle westerly flow between low/high pressure.....now it appears it will be much more unsettled than anticipated. My holiday is looking like a bit of a washout potentially!

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Tomorrow shows a spell of wet and windy weather pushing into the w / sw but further north / east looks fine and pleasantly warm with sunny spells until the rain arrives later. This takes us into an unsettled weekend but as I mentioned before there will be warm sunny spells but also heavy showers and thunderstorms developing each day.:)

DFJhP1yUMAQg0ns.jpg

DFKsWysXkAASlkr.jpg

Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

The new GFS rediscovers the FI plume:

gfs-0-324.png?6  gfs-1-324.png?6

If a flat pattern gets established next weekend, then this is possibility should an Atlantic low dive south at the opportune moment. Odds 10%-20% IMO.

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Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
2 hours ago, Man With Beard said:

Now we're into a pattern that the models are usually more accurate with, I feel comfortable to speculate out to D8. An unsettled weekend, then a rather better couple of days next week with the mid-20s likely again, before fronts cross the country from north to south Wednesday into Thursday. And then this for next Friday: 

ECM1-192.GIF?20-12  gem-0-192.png?00  gfs-0-192.png

I can't see anywhere escaping the effects of the low, but the questions are over the strength of the wind in the west, and whether the south might escape the worst of any wet weather.

The ensemble mean charts sit somewhere between the most northerly and southerly extents:

gens-21-1-192.png  EDM1-192.GIF?20-12

Another unsettled weekend for most, then, is the most likely outcome. 

To early to guess beyond that - current data suggests that the following week could either lift the trough (=more warm sunshine) or reinforce the trough (=more cool rain) - or even more likely, alternate between the two.

I did see suggestions from the NOAA that settled weather is very unlikely, but I think we need to wait for it to settle down a bit - its current 6-10 day chart shows developments that the corresponding 8-14 day charts did not see at all (compare below):

610hghts.20170719.fcst.gif  814hghts.20170715.fcst.gif  814hghts.20170716.fcst.gif  814hghts.20170717.fcst.gif

 

if you are refering to my earlier post regarding the latest 8-14 day anomaly chart - i did say if this chart is to be believed . so i wasnt presenting it as a 'given' :)

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Posted
  • Location: Royston, Herts 76m asl
  • Location: Royston, Herts 76m asl
5 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

if you are refering to my earlier post regarding the latest 8-14 day anomaly chart - i did say if this chart is to be believed . so i wasnt presenting it as a 'given' :)

Yes, quite.

Models today and recently are presenting poor weather and, generally speaking, it looks a bit of a horror show for the next 7-10 days, maybe longer.

However, one comfort is that the models have been performing pretty poorly over the last week or two.  This week was, less than a week before the event, supposed to be a heatwave - at least 27C with some models saying comfortably over 30C in some spots.  Then the mid-week 'blip' was introduced (with heat to resume thereafter) and then this blip was expanded to basically be the foreseeable, with no resumption in heat, which barely even appeared anyway.  Even short range forecasts are poor.  Yesterday was supposed to be 30+C in EA.  I don't think anywhere saw over 27C and most places were in 22-24C range.  Finally they told us (or some did), it's OK, the Azores High will ridge in and at least the south will get a settled weekend and further improvement next week.  Now that has been dropped like a stone.

So, the question is, why should we believe the models now that they are churning out garbage charts any more than we did when they were saying heatwave? 

Put more scientifically, what was causing the models to go wrong last week, and is the problem still there this week, causing poor performance for our small part of the globe?  Seems to me that they have been unusually poor and although I can't see it being a great weekend for anywhere at this range, I wouldn't be making any confident predictions beyond that.

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

12z runs are unsurprisingly just as bad as you'd expect.

gfs-5-186.png?12

I mean what the hell is that. The Jet is meant to be pushed north and weak in the middle of summer, not steaming across the Atlantic at speeds like this!

gfsnh-5-186.png?12

Surprise, surprise that the UK is on the receiving end of the strongest jet streak in the NH....

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Posted
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (C)
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: cold and snowy. Summer: hot and sunny
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (C)

Quite an unusual jet streak for this time of year, no doubt about it. Hopefully it's a relatively short lived affair. 

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
6 hours ago, Weather Boy said:

Yes, quite.

Models today and recently are presenting poor weather and, generally speaking, it looks a bit of a horror show for the next 7-10 days, maybe longer.

However, one comfort is that the models have been performing pretty poorly over the last week or two.  This week was, less than a week before the event, supposed to be a heatwave - at least 27C with some models saying comfortably over 30C in some spots.  Then the mid-week 'blip' was introduced (with heat to resume thereafter) and then this blip was expanded to basically be the foreseeable, with no resumption in heat, which barely even appeared anyway.  Even short range forecasts are poor.  Yesterday was supposed to be 30+C in EA.  I don't think anywhere saw over 27C and most places were in 22-24C range.  Finally they told us (or some did), it's OK, the Azores High will ridge in and at least the south will get a settled weekend and further improvement next week.  Now that has been dropped like a stone.

So, the question is, why should we believe the models now that they are churning out garbage charts any more than we did when they were saying heatwave? 

Put more scientifically, what was causing the models to go wrong last week, and is the problem still there this week, causing poor performance for our small part of the globe?  Seems to me that they have been unusually poor and although I can't see it being a great weekend for anywhere at this range, I wouldn't be making any confident predictions beyond that.

Disagree they been doing fairly well GFS had a one day hiccup and the UKMO followed a day after but overall they been keeping a very good score for five days out.  http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS/html/new_acz5.html

Also pretty good for six days http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS/html/new_acz6.html

Most consistent performer the ECM which hasn't had the dips  GFS and UKMO have had.

It all depends on how far out you are looking. If you're thinking T240 is going to be bang on forget it we are a long way yet from getting that amount of accuracy.

 

Edited by The PIT
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
4 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Maybe another Tuesday heat spike, turns average again after

ukmaxtemp.png

More of a warmth spike than heat :D

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Posted
  • Location: Marton
  • Location: Marton

Looks quite unusual at this time of year to see Low pressure making it across the Atlantic like the ECM has it. Might be wrong but that looks more later season polar vortex power.

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Posted
  • Location: manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Summer
  • Location: manchester
20 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

A pretty unsettled Ecm 12z it has to be said..rain on most if not all days to some degree.

24_mslp500.png

48_mslp500.png

72_mslp500.png

96_mslp500.png

120_mslp500.png

144_mslp500.png

168_mslp500.png

192_mslp500.png

216_mslp500.png

Is that yet another large trough forming and ready to hurtle towards us in the bottom picture?

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

This morning the EPS anomaly was not particularly inviting to say the least so what does the det. run have in store this evening?

The rain from the fronts associated with the low swinging south east into Ireland is already into Cornwall with Ns and continuous slight rain here. By 12z tomorrow the low is over Ireland and the fronts not long through Cornwall

The front tracks NE, then, N weakening as it goes over the next 24 hours whilst at the same time the low slowly fills and tracks east to be in the southern North Sea by 12z on Monday albeit the influence of the northerly circulation doesn't really clear until Tuesday when Britain briefly enters a col.

I say briefly advisedly as the next upper low which leaves Canada on Saturday is now around 600km west of Scotland with the associated fronts of the surface feature swinging south east just west of Ireland by 00z Wednesday. These duly traverse the UK, complicated further by a wave joining the fun which developed to the south west, and the whole caboodle is clear by Thursday morning.

But the surface low which has been the instigator of all this has been tracking slowly east and by Friday midnight is over Norther Ireland. During the next18 hours it continues to track east and fill but a very wet and windy day ensues with possible gales as the strong westerly veers north westerly.

There is but a brief respite as the next system impacts the UK over the weekend.

ecm_mslp_uv850_natl_5.thumb.png.32e5a7c2f877b0710928d95567e0f6ae.pngecm_mslp_uv850_natl_7.thumb.png.1cd62943431198ed955446eb1f04d45f.pngecm_mslp_uv850_natl_9.thumb.png.7af1f164a1372ecc9f12ad4e252c178c.png

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
2 minutes ago, 40*C said:

Is that yet another large trough forming and ready to hurtle towards us in the bottom picture?

It looks like it, I don't think anyone will be complaining about it being too hot next week:D

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Posted
  • Location: Royston, Herts 76m asl
  • Location: Royston, Herts 76m asl
2 hours ago, The PIT said:

Disagree they been doing fairly well GFS had a one day hiccup and the UKMO followed a day after but overall they been keeping a very good score for five days out.  http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS/html/new_acz5.html

Also pretty good for six days http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS/html/new_acz6.html

Most consistent performer the ECM which hasn't had the dips  GFS and UKMO have had.

It all depends on how far out you are looking. If you're thinking T240 is going to be bang on forget it we are a long way yet from getting that amount of accuracy.

 

Point 1: as those stats are date of determination they pre-date events discussed.

Point 2: are you denying that there was heat predicted for this week? Apparently not, so I think my point stands.

Doesn't mean the models aren't right now of course!

Edited by Weather Boy
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Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire

Some drama queen over reaction on here tonight with regards to next week's weather. The first half of next week doesn't look too bad at all. I would sort of understand this reaction if we had experienced some decent summers in the last 10 years or so. The fact remains that we haven't had a decent summer since 2006. This is the new norm by the looks of it. 

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester
10 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Some drama queen over reaction on here tonight with regards to next week's weather. The first half of next week doesn't look too bad at all. I would sort of understand this reaction if we had experienced some decent summers in the last 10 years or so. The fact remains that we haven't had a decent summer since 2006. This is the new norm by the looks of it. 

What about 2013? It was excellent. In the Manchester area it was the best summer since 1995 according to weather-history's index. 2014 also very decent.

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Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire

18z is looking alright for next week temperature wise compared to recent updates, also brings back the risk for some Thunderstorms

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Posted
  • Location: manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Summer
  • Location: manchester

The excellent summers we've had in the past weren't normal either in my opinion. Just over the top barmy hot weather that isn't UK standard. If 1976 hadn't occurred I think peoples expectations of summer time would be a lot different.   

Meanwhile 18z looks ok next week for Monday, Tuesday & Weds.  Southern and Central parts likely to see finest days but getting cloudier and wetter further North. Thursday to Sunday look and smell like dirty urinals.

tue.png

wed.png

thu.png

fri.png

sat.png

sun.png

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