Model Output Discussions 12z 01/06/2017

[blizzard81]

4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Yep, Ecm still promoting extensive blocking at northern latitudes and southerly tracking lows, or at least uk bound troughs.

Dreadful, just dreadful.

It is especially dreadful when you think back to all those positive forecasts for late july/beginning of August. Absolute nightmare. Feel sorry for those who have taken the risk of holidaying in the UK this summer season. 

[knocker]

The ecm this morning would appear to be sticking to the EPS anomaly script of last night with a flat Azores. Thus the jet in the middle of next week (120kts) aligned west-east on a level with Cornwall. Ergo the transient ridge soon collapses and low pressure in the eastern Atlantic is the order of the day thereafter but not, it must be stressed, deep lows.

Earlier the weekend low is slower to clear east than the gfs so Sunday/Monday tend to remain showery in the northerly airstream.

I think it needs to be stressed once again that much of this is next week and given the volatility of the models of late a long way from being a done deal. although it has to be said the percentage play is not brilliant.

Edited July 19, 2017 by knocker

[blizzard81]

5 minutes ago, knocker said:

The ecm this morning would appear to be sticking to the EPS anomaly script of last night with a flat Azores. Thus the jet in the middle of next week (120kts) aligned west-east on a level with Cornwall. Ergo the transient ridge soon collapses and low pressure in the eastern Atlantic is the order of the day thereafter but not, it must be stressed, deep lows.

Earlier the weekend low is slower to clear east than the gfs so Sunday/Monday tend to remain showery in the northerly airstream.

I think it needs to be stressed once again that much of this is next week and given the volatility of the models of late a long way from being a done deal. although it has to be said the percentage play is not brilliant.

I hope you are right and this is not a done deal yet. 

[mb018538]

So, another X rated ECM run this morning, with charts about as bad as you can get if midsummer. None of the output is amazing though, so any settled and warm spell looks like being way off in the sunset at the moment.

[Frosty.]

Wow what an Ecm 00z, wonderful charts, especially the last 3..summer at its best!..BOOM

[draztik]

Height anomaly and temp anom, days 6-10 ECM. 

Frosty, admire your approach... it shall pay off. And maybe before summer is over

[Elliot Worth]

GFS seems to be more positive this morning; Azores high pushing in after the weekend and hanging around for a few days.

Edited July 19, 2017 by Elliot Worth

[Man With Beard]

Ops and ensemble means this morning at T144

    

  

In general, a fairly good outlook for next week I would say, especially for the north and west!! Instinctively, you'd say that ridge to the west is going to topple into the UK and give at least 2-3 days of dry/settled weather. But if the low below Greenland is pushed in a slightly more NEly direction rather than flattening the block, it could result in a longer settled spell yet.

The ECM is a little out-of-kilt when compared with the rest. Its negative outlook for the UK is very much dependent on a 500mb Greenland High. I think many of us, over the years, have come to the conclusion not to trust the ECM on a Greenland High unless the GFS also has one. 

The T192 charts show clearly how the ECM op is on its own with the Greenland High, which is the reason why it tracks everything south as it does. The GFS op/mean and the ECM mean are pretty much on the same page:

        

So the percentage play is to go with the GFS op/GFS mean/ECM combination, and a north/south split by the end of next week, with the possibility of a short warmer spell for the SE again and changeable conditions for Scotland. 

Just the chance that the flow will kink again in the Atlantic, allowing another mini-plume. Personally, I think the chart below is just as credible as the ECM op for the same time period.

  

So once the weekend is out of the way, a very good chance of a better window for next week.

[knocker]

The EPS anomaly this morning not dissimilar to last night with the trough south of Greenland with the conduit to the other trough east of the UK. Little northward movement of the Azores and with a strong jet running eat from the eastern seaboard it still portends an unsettled period, The GEFS not quite as much with a slightly different configuration of the trough south of Greenland which perhaps allows more influence from the Azores.

 

 

[Frosty.]

Not a fan of the heat? tomorrow looks much fresher but today is very warm and humid and for parts of the east very hot with 32c 90f possible. There were some violent thunderstorms last night further south and more will brew up today and spread north.

Edited July 19, 2017 by Frosty.

[Man With Beard]

I've had 2003 on my mind for a long time, and it's still there - had a little look at the archives ... oh do I? ... yeah go on, why not!!

  

  

Apart from the trough over Scandi, not a bad pattern match, eh??

Oh, and what happened next in 2003?? BOOM!

    

A little height rise over Scandi by D7-D10 and we might be in business ... needs to be a bit better than the current ECM mean chart, but not completely out of the question:

 

 

 

[Summer Sun]

The GFS upgrade will be effective from today's 12z

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/notification/scn17-67gfsupgrade.htm

[mb018538]

Well the first run from the upgraded GFS is trundling out....and is every bit as uninspiring as you'd expect. Once that pesky low clears out early next week, any building of the Azores ridge is firmly squashed back down to the south, leaving us in a westerly Atlantic flow. Cool to average, sunshine and showers. Perfect for the start of the summer holidays!  They wonder why so many Brits go abroad for a holiday!

Edited July 19, 2017 by mb018538
n/a

[mb018538]

Also, there are a number of runs forecasting the NAO to drop to levels we haven't seen since the spring:



If there's one thing we don't want to see, it's northern blocking becoming established. If that happens, we could easily end up with something like an August 2004 appearing.



Granted that was the wettest August on record, but one to keep an eye on!

[Scorcher]

2 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

If there's one thing we don't want to see, it's northern blocking becoming established. If that happens, we could easily end up with something like an August 2004 appearing.

 

That would certainly be an extreme scenario, but August 2004 was at least warm- in terms of temperature there have been far worse Augusts in the past few years. In terms of the rainfall it certainly wouldn't be welcome though.

[Scorcher]

9 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Well the first run from the upgraded GFS is trundling out....and is every bit as uninspiring as you'd expect. Once that pesky low clears out early next week, any building of the Azores ridge is firmly squashed back down to the south, leaving us in a westerly Atlantic flow. Cool to average, sunshine and showers. Perfect for the start of the summer holidays!  They wonder why so many Brits go abroad for a holiday!

I don't agree to be honest- it's not looking so bad next week if this run is to be believed. I think we can become pre-occupied with looking for high pressure domination and expecting perfect summer charts. In one of my previous posts I mentioned the fact that we don't need perfect synoptics at this time of year to get reasonable surface conditions.

If you look at the finer details from day to day, conditions will be reasonable next week at least until midweek I believe- if you look at the temperature charts for Monday for example it looks decent:

It certainly could be a lot worse- it's not what we'd want to see an ideal world, but I don't think it's bad enough to moan about.

[TJS1998Tom]

12z showing signs of some hope for the first week of August! Particularly down in the South and East. Hopefully this will end in a thundery breakdown and not cool air coming from the Atlantic 

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

Agreed with an earlier post, current set ups looking similar to that from end of July 2003. All is needed is a slight rise in heights over scandi and we could be in the money . Even GFS picked up a similar scenario the other day then dropped it next run.  

[TJS1998Tom]

1 minute ago, 40*C said:

Agreed with an earlier post, current set ups looking similar to that from end of July 2003. All is needed is a slight rise in heights over scandi and we could be in the money . Even GFS picked up a similar scenario the other day then dropped it next run.  

I have a feeling we could yet see some hot runs coming up; as this Summer a lot of them mainly picks up plumes of heat 3 or 4 days from the event even if they didnt look promising beforehand 

[Frosty.]

The Ecm 12z at least looks better for a time next week as a ridge builds across southern uk from the west with pleasantly warm fine weather ahead of a trough waiting in the wings to the NW for next thursday..so to me, there could be some usable weather next week with a reasonable window of fine weather with sunny spells but mainly across southern uk, lasting longest across the south-east.

Edited July 19, 2017 by Frosty.

[Frosty.]

Signs of slight recovery again towards the end of the Ecm 12z, mainly for the south / south-east..looks better than the end of the 00z anyway!

If we are aiming our sights at some usable summer weather, the Gfs / Ecm 12z shows some for next week.

Edited July 19, 2017 by Frosty.

[mb018538]

Not the worst ecm run tonight....trouble is it's so different from the 00z run that you just don't know what to believe!

[Man With Beard]

On 2017-7-9 at 21:37, Man With Beard said:

Frosty I'm going to attempt what some said couldn't be done and outdo your optimism!

After next weekend's mini-Azores  I push, I'm seeing a pulse of heights rising northwards through Europe sometime between 18th July and 22nd July. Can never be sure as we well know, but the most likely result for me is a raising of the jet so that it goes much further north, coupled with a height rise over Scandi deflecting troughs northwards - which is important because this prevents troughs over Scandi injecting Arctic based air into the system. THE GFS 06Z was a little spanner in the works but that aside, that's the general trend I see.

In short, a much greater chance of the whole of the UK, not just the south, being affected by warm air advecting up from Europe in the 20th-31st July period - and not a terrible chance of a serious heatwave too. 

A revisit of my post from 10 days ago. Oh dear, oh dear!! 

    

Bizarrely, most of what I wrote actually happened:

"heights rising northwards through Europe" - CHECK

"raising of the jet so that it goes much further north" - CHECK (but left a bit behind!!)

"height rise over Scandi" - CHECK (but went even further, too much further!)

Almost dream synoptics for July if you consider these things in isolation. But what the ensembles didn't pick up was a teeny weeny low - which just happened to sit right over us. 

So so unlucky!! Frosty, since my original post was intended to cheer you up, I apologise profusely on behalf of the ECM, the GFS and the METO  

[blizzard81]

12 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Not the worst ecm run tonight....trouble is it's so different from the 00z run that you just don't know what to believe!

Well, the ecm is obviously fed up with being the summer scrooge and has treated us to a better run. Not brilliant by any means but at least the middle of next week now looks more palatable. Also, the end of the run is not too far removed from what the GFS 12z run of Monday evening was showing. Just a few tweaks here and there and tonight's ecm would be showing something remarkably similar for that last weekend of July. Gfs may have been onto something with it's zany 12z run on Monday after all. 

[blizzard81]

3 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Compared to the vile Gem 12z, the Ecm / Gfs 12z look decent for most of next week.

I would bet on the ECM and GFS over the GEM any day