Model Output Discussions 12z 01/06/2017

[knocker]

The ecm clears the low away to the east slightly quicker than the gfs and by 12z Monday the ridge is more or less in situ with showers lingering along the east coast in the NE flow, This remains the case until Thursday midnight whens fronts from the west traverse the country. But the difference between the end of this run is huge it really just highlights that the evolution beyond five or six days be treated with even more caution than usual. This applies to all models.

[knocker]

I obliviously meant to say the difference between the end of this run and last evening is huge More care needed.

Edited July 18, 2017 by knocker

[Man With Beard]

Any chance of the Brexit negotiations being like the recent model events? They squabble for days on end, reaching seemingly irreconcilable positions - and then suddenly, after one overnight meeting, they all come out on the same page.

      

Or maybe it wouldn't be such a good thing. Unless you're a duck, it looks like a "lose-lose" outcome, with a depression for the UK, a downturn in the weather for most and a negative outlook for rain on west facing coasts  

 

[Gordon Webb]

10 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Any chance of the Brexit negotiations being like the recent model events? They squabble for days on end, reaching seemingly irreconcilable positions - and then suddenly, after one overnight meeting, they all come out on the same page.

      

Or maybe it wouldn't be such a good thing. Unless you're a duck, it looks like a "lose-lose" outcome, with a depression for the UK, a downturn in the weather for most and a negative outlook for rain on west facing coasts  

 

typical couldn't agree on decentish weather but when there's a chance of having cooler unsettled weather hey presto CONSENSUS

[Frosty.]

12 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Any chance of the Brexit negotiations being like the recent model events? They squabble for days on end, reaching seemingly irreconcilable positions - and then suddenly, after one overnight meeting, they all come out on the same page.

      

Or maybe it wouldn't be such a good thing. Unless you're a duck, it looks like a "lose-lose" outcome, with a depression for the UK, a downturn in the weather for most and a negative outlook for rain on west facing coasts  

 

Doesn't look bad, warm sunny spells and heavy showers with a risk of thunder!

[Man With Beard]

4 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Doesn't look bad, warm sunny spells and heavy showers with a risk of thunder!

Sorry Frosty, of course yes, there will be some sunshine, just didn't fit my attempt at being funny

But I fear that for many, the heavy showers will be more significant than the warm sunshine:

    

Really quite cool in the north and west - this chart looks a little warmer in the SE but of course this is the GFS, which has the best outlook for that area.

[Frosty.]

7 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Sorry Frosty, of course yes, there will be some sunshine, just didn't fit my attempt at being funny

But I fear that for many, the heavy showers will be more significant than the warm sunshine:

    

Really quite cool in the north and west - this chart looks a little warmer in the SE but of course this is the GFS, which has the best outlook for that area.

Well it's typical British summer weather really, par for the course.

[northwestsnow]

I cant see anything other than a poor outlook this morning...esp further north one heads...

Perhaps chance of a brief ridge early next week before another Atlantic low wings in.

 

[Singularity]

Suddenly it all appears nice and simple with the low drifting slowly but surely east Sat-Tue and then a bit of a ridge in from the west as Nina-like forcing wanes - but with not much sign yet that there will be enough forcing the other way to achieve more than a warm mostly dry south and cooler changeable north until at least next weekend.

The 12z GFS last night seemed to find something much more, but it was clearly along way outside the curve (unless it was ahead of it instead... ha - that'd be the day!).

[mb018538]

45 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Sorry Frosty, of course yes, there will be some sunshine, just didn't fit my attempt at being funny

But I fear that for many, the heavy showers will be more significant than the warm sunshine:

    

Really quite cool in the north and west - this chart looks a little warmer in the SE but of course this is the GFS, which has the best outlook for that area.

If that temp chart verifies then that is really shocking for the peak of summer. 11-15c in the north? Dreadful. Even 17c here is about 5c below where it should be for late July.

[Frosty.]

42 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

If that temp chart verifies then that is really shocking for the peak of summer. 11-15c in the north? Dreadful. Even 17c here is about 5c below where it should be for late July.

Time for some more reverse psychology..great charts so far today. Bring it on!

[Essan]

1 hour ago, mb018538 said:

If that temp chart verifies then that is really shocking for the peak of summer. 11-15c in the north? Dreadful. Even 17c here is about 5c below where it should be for late July.

I've never known a GFS temp chart to verify even at +3 hours .....

But given there has only been one day here with below average maxima so far this month, I think it would actually make for quite a nice change

Afrter all, we can't expect it to be warmer than average every day!

(I appreciate that in some other parts of the country it's been a very different summer)

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

6z isn't as bad as it looks with the trough pushing NE and allowing a ridge to build in from the west so I think next week could be East/West split with Western parts likely to be dry and Eastern parts showery. Meanwhile ECM has another dartboard waiting in the wings!!!

[mushymanrob]

my concerns are for the longer term effect of this troublesome low. it cannot go anywhere fast as its locked in, and it might just get replenished by systems from the northwest thus prolonging its influence on the uk. some heat - haters might like this, but it could be a pattern change IF northern / central europe holds on to -ive pressure anomalies. we might have had a pretty good summer so far (away from the north lol) but theres nothing to say itll last into august - it certainly didnt in 2006 or 2013. on the other hand in '95 and '03 it saved the best until august.

but the azores high has/is being no friend to heat lovers, if it wasnt for that retrogressing then this nasty little feature couldnt have formed (over us anyway) and current modeling doesnt suggest its in any hurry to return to a more favourable position , except in deep fi as ever...

so i reckon the behaviour of this forthcoming feature will be the pivotal point of the summer? and will likely determine the pattern for the second half of summer.

[Frosty.]

It appears the recently very promising signals for a generally very warm and settled extended outlook has gone for a burton. The latest update is about as bad as it gets in high summer with a predominantly rather cool broad west to north-westerly  changeable / unsettled atlantic pattern becoming established but there are some short- lived settled and warmer interludes expected too, the occasionally warmer conditions mainly further s / e.. I haven't given up but even I can't sugar coat the outlook as it stands. 

Edited July 18, 2017 by Frosty.

[mushymanrob]

15 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

It appears the recently very promising signals for a generally very warm and settled extended outlook has gone for a burton. The latest update is about as bad as it gets in high summer with a predominantly rather cool broad west to north-westerly  changeable / unsettled atlantic pattern becoming established but there are some short- lived settled and warmer interludes expected too, the occasionally warmer conditions mainly further s / e.. I haven't given up but even I can't sugar coat the outlook as it stands. 

another crap august then on the cards?....

[Frosty.]

11 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

another crap august then on the cards?....

I don't know mushy, just saying what the pros currently think..It could become a locked in trough dominated pattern with a north-west / south-east aligned jet unfortunately but it won't stop me looking for better signs in the days / weeks ahead.

Edited July 18, 2017 by Frosty.

[mushymanrob]

1 hour ago, Frosty. said:

I don't know mushy, just saying what the pros currently think..It could become a locked in trough dominated pattern with a north-west / south-east aligned jet unfortunately but it won't stop me looking for better signs in the days / weeks ahead.

well this is my concern with this troublesome anticyclone, pattern changer. im not ready to give up heat just yet even though we have enjoyed quite a lot.

[blizzard81]

1 hour ago, Frosty. said:

It appears the recently very promising signals for a generally very warm and settled extended outlook has gone for a burton. The latest update is about as bad as it gets in high summer with a predominantly rather cool broad west to north-westerly  changeable / unsettled atlantic pattern becoming established but there are some short- lived settled and warmer interludes expected too, the occasionally warmer conditions mainly further s / e.. I haven't given up but even I can't sugar coat the outlook as it stands. 

I really do think these meto updates can be 24 hours behind the game. If I was reading that update yesterday, I wouldn't be surprised but the trend on the models so far today has been to show the azores high ever so slightly edging in a little more into the west of the UK next week  than they were generally showing yesterday bar the zany gfs 12z run. I expect this trend to continue on the remaining model runs today and tomorrow's meto update to be a little more positive as a result. 

[phil nw.]

Remember guys there is a thread for Met O. outlook discussions.let's keep to our own views of the models in here,ta.

[Gael_Force]

34 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

well this is my concern with this troublesome anticyclone, pattern changer. im not ready to give up heat just yet even though we have enjoyed quite a lot.

The EC 32 is showing the high staying to the west and a trough to our east so I expect the updates are reflecting that even though there's room for movement to benefit us. From a link Knocker put in the ENSO thread, I see one of the tropical weather people suggesting there might be a storm generating period in the Atlantic for early August: coming up to the time of year when a single strong storm can shift the pattern quite a bit.

[blizzard81]

3 minutes ago, Gael_Force said:

The EC 32 is showing the high staying to the west and a trough to our east so I expect the updates are reflecting that even though there's room for movement to benefit us. From a link Knocker put in the ENSO thread, I see one of the tropical weather people suggesting there might be a storm generating period in the Atlantic for early August: coming up to the time of year when a single strong storm can shift the pattern quite a bit.

Funny that! The ECM 32 showed a similar scenario during the whole of last winter. Caused much despair on here when it never came to fruition. Sods law would dictate that it will this summer. 

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

12z is very much improved next week compared to the recent horror charts. Azores finally winning out the weather next week. Still 7 days away so expect further improvements or more major misery

 

Edited July 18, 2017 by 40*C

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 12z shows some usable weather next week with plenty of fine and pleasantly warm conditions with temperatures into the low 20's celsius.

[Singularity]

  

UKMO 12z ends up uncannily similar to some of the charts that were cropping up prior to this week's extended fine spell that never was and GFS is not that far away from that - just a bit flatter with the Atlantic jet which is handy in the mid-range but potentially less so in the longer.

This output is following an AAM climb that has gained some magnitude in the GEFS projections over the past few days which begs the question - are the models overreacting to such trends for the second time running?