Model Output Discussions 12z 01/06/2017

[Captain Shortwave]

The ECM this evening mirrors the GEFs out to day 8 so I guess that is the best fit at the moment, then it chucks out a dartboard low in the Atlantic at day 9. 965mb, probably not going to happen.

ECM

      

GEFs

      

[Frosty.]

It's always intriguing seeing the gfs and ecm looking so different, enjoy the ride..at least it's interesting to see which model will be proved right.. 

Edited July 17, 2017 by Frosty.

[cheese]

Even if it was only a halfway house, it probably wouldn't be too bad - but we really don't want to see that low pressure move south.

[blizzard81]

54 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

If the ecm op follows the GFS tonight, this country won't be the only thing going into meltdown. This forum will go into one instantly. 

Well, no danger of that lol. Deary me! The only conclusion I can come to is that the models are really struggling in the medium term - even more than usual

[Ice Man 85]

2 minutes ago, cheese said:

Even if it was only a halfway house, it probably wouldn't be too bad - but we really don't want to see that low pressure move south.

Nor do I want to see what the GFS is propagating. Today's conditions from now until the Autumn would suit everybody (bar the diehard heat lovers that is)

[Frosty.]

14 minutes ago, cheese said:

Even if it was only a halfway house, it probably wouldn't be too bad - but we really don't want to see that low pressure move south.

All of a sudden, a north / south split from the weekend looks quite appetizing..unless you're in scotland of course!

[ANYWEATHER]

29 minutes ago, Ice Man 85 said:

Nor do I want to see what the GFS is propagating. Today's conditions from now until the Autumn would suit everybody (bar the diehard heat lovers that is)

To Be Honest ,the charts we are seeing tonight are not that bad , normal British summer , without the heat and humidity. Ok will be some showers or spells of rain but but some sparkling high summer sun to enjoy.

[cheshire snow]

Looks like the 12z GFS has mirrored that ECM from a couple of winter's back,both extreme and unlikely to verify 

C.S. 

[summer blizzard]

All i can say is thank goodness. The Euro is thankfully relatively unsettled and relatively cool and much like late June/early July. 

[cheese]

1 hour ago, Ice Man 85 said:

Nor do I want to see what the GFS is propagating. Today's conditions from now until the Autumn would suit everybody (bar the diehard heat lovers that is)

Exactly - but what the ECM is showing is totally useless weather and wastes what ought to be the best time of year for people who enjoy going outside (we have most of the rest of the year for those who revel in rain and gloom without having to deprive summer lovers of something to look forward to).

Edited July 17, 2017 by cheese

[Ice Man 85]

6 minutes ago, cheese said:

Exactly - but what the ECM is showing is totally useless weather and wastes what ought to be the best time of year for people who enjoy going outside (we have most of the rest of the year for those who revel in rain and gloom without having to deprive summer lovers of something to look forward to).

Upper 30s would hardly be "usable" either. Like I said, we can only hope for a continuation of today's conditions and temps; a happy medium.

[Man With Beard]

NOAA 6-10 looks unchanged tonight. Strange. I can't see any model that hasn't pushed the trough east by D7. Perhaps the forecasters saw the mess in the models and thought "let's stick with what we've got and try again tomorrow"

[draztik]

9 minutes ago, Ice Man 85 said:

Upper 30s would hardly be "usable" either. Like I said, we can only hope for a continuation of today's conditions and temps; a happy medium.

im hearing from relatives in Northern Ireland today was exceptional, with temps nearing 25C and not a cloud in the sky - a dose of high summer for that part of the U.K., but all change come Wednesday, nationwide. 

[damianslaw]

Firmly entering what I class as high summer, roughly last 2 weeks of July and first two weeks of August, tourist facilities and resorts bank on good weather now, indeed this is the time of year when the true summer feel good factor comes into effect - it really is when we want our best summer conditions to occur. What do we have, well a mixed picture overall, rather typical conditions, ECM showing low pressure and atlantic conditions taking over from mid week onwards, indeed quite cool overall and wet in places, not the best start to the start of the school holidays, GFS though showing something very different, low pressure lifting out quickly thanks to a resurging azores high nosing in and kicking the jet aside - mmm I'm not too sure it has things right, but we shall see.

All eyes on the position and strength of the jetstream over coming days, This week most likely to be a pivotal stage in the summer, if it maintains similiar position and strength it will most likely be a tall order to see high pressure win out, conversely if it elongates then August could be a high pressure/ridge fest. 

Edited July 17, 2017 by damianslaw

[Frosty.]

Good news for those who prefer troughs over the uk and cooler changeable / unsettled atlantic weather, tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean will be right up your alley!

[Mark wheeler]

Everyone make way and see the mighty Navgem pave the way forward , if carlsberg ....

 

 

[blizzard81]

2 hours ago, blizzard81 said:

Well, no danger of that lol. Deary me! The only conclusion I can come to is that the models are really struggling in the medium term - even more than usual

The big questions are - is the GFS being a tease tonight? Is the Ecm being a miser? Or do either have a Scrooby Doo?

[DR(S)NO]

In the short term

Summer arrives in Scotland in style .......

For one day only...

[Frosty.]

1 minute ago, DR(S)NO said:

In the short term

Summer arrives in Scotland in style .......

For one day only...

Today was summery wasn't it?..make that 2 days only

[Matthew.]

Further to Frostys post about the ECM mean is similar to what UKMO was showing earlier so it could be a recipe for convection, maybe some homegrown thunderstorms!

[weathermadbarnsleylad]

Well the GFS pub run blows the 12z mid next week blow torch away well it was nice to look at anyway , will it come back on the 6z ?.Roll on 5am lol

[cheese]

4 hours ago, Frosty. said:

Today was summery wasn't it?..make that 2 days only

Wednesday looks quite warm as well - highs of 24C here. Some thunderstorms around though and perhaps quite cloudy (though I don't mind cloudy and warm - it's cloudy and cool that annoys me!).

Combine that with Sunday which was also sunny and warm - I make that four days.

And in fairness, July hasn't been so bad here, most days in the low 20s, only 2 days below 20C. Can't go wrong.

Edited July 18, 2017 by cheese

[knocker]

Last night's anomalies indicated nothing apart from the ordinary standard fayre so it's really a matter of still  looking at the weekend and after. Obviously today and tomorrow are of interest as the thundery low tracks north and a front moves in from the west portending thundery outbreaks spreading north from the south later today. This will be covered in far more detail in other threads so just a couple of charts here.Of course you can be in these areas and completely miss any storms.

Moving on. The upper trough is currently in mid Atlantic with the centre east of southern Greenland. This then tracks SE to be over the Western Isles by 12z Friday with associated surface fronts already affecting most of Britain as a belt of rain moves east during the next 24 hours.

The low then loiters with intent over the weekend, gradually moving east, and is situated over the central North Sea by 12z on Monday. So essentially an unsettled weekend with showers, perhaps the odd band of rain, with temps around average but tending a little below. From here the low continues on it's travels east and the Azores ridges in from the south west. But by Thursday midnight more fronts have approached from the west but are mainly affecting the north and this is rather emblematic of what the anomalies are indicating, namely a N/S split. But again, the detail of the evolution for next week are not a done deal.

 

Edited July 18, 2017 by knocker

[mb018538]

Perhaps unsurprisingly there isn't one ensemble member now showing anything like the craziness of last nights GFS run. Very much back to the changeable theme, with no settled spell in sight at present.

[biggreyface]

9 hours ago, Frosty. said:

Today was summery wasn't it?..make that 2 days only

Unfortunately  the down side to such a prolonged dry spell in Scotland is the inevitable hose pipe ban