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Model Output Discussions 12z 01/06/2017

phil nw.

By phil nw.
in Forecast Model Discussion

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blizzard81 Maestro

blizzard81

Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
Posted
7 minutes ago, stainesbloke said:

We seem to have reached the nadir and are now starting to see very slight improvements to conditions this coming weekend. Notably UKMO which keeps the trough further to the NW and fills it out nicely, so areas to the S and E in particular might actually get away with a reasonable weekend. Awaiting further runs with interest.

The GFS has been steadfast in moving the trough to our south east drawing in winds from the north east. I expect the ecm to side with gfs tonight. 

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stainesbloke Maestro

stainesbloke

Posted
  • Location: Nymburk, Czech Republic and Staines, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in summer, thunderstorms, snow, fog, frost, squall lines
  • Location: Nymburk, Czech Republic and Staines, UK
Posted
3 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

I agree, the south and south-east would do ok from that set-up but the north and north-west would be progressively cooler and more showery..on the plus side, in the sunny spells it would feel pleasant anywhere but now I'm scraping the barrel for good things to say about the current output generally..BUT..The next 3 days look summery so it's not all bad!:D

Not all bad for sure. Might even see a thunderstorm this week, have forgotten what they are. Flying ants swarming for the second time in 2 weeks. Such a shame the hot days can't be over a weekend. But if there are enough sunny spells, could be pleasant and with chances of some convective interest.

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Man With Beard Maestro

Man With Beard

Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
Posted

Has the ECM thrown a lifeline?

ECM1-96.GIF?16-0

Incredible model disagreement tonight at just T96. ECM vs GFS/UKMO/GEM. Surely the ECM can't be wrong at T96? Surely the UKMO can't be wrong at T96 either?? Well one is!

gem-0-96.png?12  UW96-21.GIF?16-19  gfs-0-96.png?12

 

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted

Yes the Ecm 12z is looking better than its 00z for sure, decent improvement further south later in the week..baby steps

96_mslp500.png

120_mslp500.png

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Mark wheeler Maestro

Mark wheeler

Posted
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Hot and Sunny but not opressive
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey
Posted
5 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Has the ECM thrown a lifeline?

ECM1-96.GIF?16-0

Incredible model disagreement tonight at just T96. ECM vs GFS/UKMO/GEM. Surely the ECM can't be wrong at T96? Surely the UKMO can't be wrong at T96 either?? Well one is!

gem-0-96.png?12  UW96-21.GIF?16-19  gfs-0-96.png?12

 

Add the mighty Navgem to the mix ( desperate times and all that )

 

IMG_7874.PNG

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knocker Maestro

knocker

Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
Posted
2 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

ECM T120 - Surely not!
ECM1-120.GIF?16-0  ECM0-120.GIF?16-0

Warmer weather already pushing back in, N/S split

Compare that same time chart with the previous run!  No amplification splitting the trough on this one.

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted

T+144 comparison...12z much better:)

144_mslp500.png

144_mslp500 (1).png

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stainesbloke Maestro

stainesbloke

Posted
  • Location: Nymburk, Czech Republic and Staines, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in summer, thunderstorms, snow, fog, frost, squall lines
  • Location: Nymburk, Czech Republic and Staines, UK
Posted
15 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

The GFS has been steadfast in moving the trough to our south east drawing in winds from the north east. I expect the ecm to side with gfs tonight. 

It's a possibility. Maybe the GFS will follow the latest ECM tomorrow?

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Man With Beard Maestro

Man With Beard

Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, knocker said:

Compare that same time chart with the previous run!  No amplification splitting the trough on this one.

It inevitably gets starker as the run goes on. This mornings vs this evenings:

ECM1-144.GIF?00  ECM0-144.GIF?00

  ECM1-144.GIF?16-0  ECM0-144.GIF?16-0

edit - ah, beat me to it Frosty!!

Edited by Man With Beard
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bluearmy Maestro

bluearmy

Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
Posted

Glad I held back on a post I was going to make - however, you have to question this ecm op as it's so out of kilter with previous eps suites and other modelling.

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knocker Maestro

knocker

Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

It inevitably gets starker as the run goes on. This mornings vs this evenings:

ECM1-144.GIF?00  ECM0-144.GIF?00

  ECM1-144.GIF?16-0  ECM0-144.GIF?16-0

Well yes, once the initial creation of the cut off low fails it's a different ball game.In fact this evening is closer to the ecm position prior to when it decided to move towards the gfs.

Edited by knocker
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Man With Beard Maestro

Man With Beard

Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
Posted
1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

Glad I held back on a post I was going to make - however, you have to question this ecm op as it's so out of kilter with previous eps suites and other modelling.

Yes - apart from very slight support from minor models/GEM, a bolt from the blue. Needs putting on the back-burner till the morning. Was just about to give up completely on an alternative scenario when the run came out!

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted

T+168 comparison, 12z miles better!

168_mslp500.png

168_mslp500 (1).png

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knocker Maestro

knocker

Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
Posted
3 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Glad I held back on a post I was going to make - however, you have to question this ecm op as it's so out of kilter with previous eps suites and other modelling.

You can say that spades ba. As you will have noticed the difference in the surface analysis between the ecm and gfs at just T120 is stark.

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mushymanrob Maestro

mushymanrob

Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
Posted
9 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Glad I held back on a post I was going to make - however, you have to question this ecm op as it's so out of kilter with previous eps suites and other modelling.

................. so was the gfs when it first predicted this troublesome spoiling low... :)

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted

T+192 comparison, altogether better run than the 00z with the azores ridge much more influential and the pesky trough further away to the NE.

192_mslp500.png

192_mslp500 (1).png

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mushymanrob Maestro

mushymanrob

Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
Posted
3 hours ago, mushymanrob said:

is there any chance this so far non existent low will not happen?.... lol..

well the ecm would suggest its not a foregone conclusion, and its still 4 days away in a volotile synoptic pattern.... fingers crossed.

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Guest

Guest

Posted
Posted
12 minutes ago, knocker said:

You can say that spades ba. As you will have noticed the difference in the surface analysis between the ecm and gfs at just T120 is stark.

Stark you say?

1slek4.jpg

:D 

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draztik Rising Star

draztik

Posted
  • Location: Bristol
  • Location: Bristol
Posted
2 minutes ago, Steel City Skies said:

Stark you say?

1slek4.jpg

:D 

Always important to note what the UKMO suggests when it's this different at such a short timeframe between the American and the ecm. 

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted (edited)

The Ecm 12z goes a bit pete tong near the end but the main thing is the improvements start much earlier which is something to work with. 

 

216_mslp500 (1).png

240_mslp500.png

Edited by Frosty.
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Guest

Guest

Posted
Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, draztik said:

Always important to note what the UKMO suggests when it's this different at such a short timeframe between the American and the ecm. 

Yes but the meme wouldn't have tripped off the tongue so nicely then :p I take your point though, especially when there is disagreement at such short range.

Edited by Steel City Skies
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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted

I think my reverse psychology in the moaning / ramping thread has paid off somewhat with the Ecm 12z..perhaps the first signs of a backtrack towards something more like summer, apart from the last few frames..baby steps.

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