Model Output Discussions 12z 01/06/2017

[Polar Maritime]

Some cracking cape values for next Wednesday..With Temps possibly touching 29/30c in the E/SE. A stark temperature difference as Knocker points out.

[Frosty.]

As Victor meldrew would say...

[knocker]

Nothing like the ecm to keep the punters on their toes, although nothing to be too concerned about I wouldn't have thought vis the medium term even if this morning's det run is more or less correct which of course is no way a done deal. To my jaundiced eye the simplistic reason explaining the apparent volte face this morning would appear to be down to something everyone wants and that is surge of the high pressure.That's fine and dandy but it appears to have come slightly earlier than previously and by so doing has dissected the upper trough between 00 Weds and 00 Thursday and shot the resulting upper low south east over the UK introducing some unsettled conditions. All is not lost but a regroup is called for and by Sunday that is well under way. Obviously minor adjustments to that upper scenario will alter the situation. Anyway just my thoughts.

The ecm also showing the thundery outbreak on Weds with the west/east temp variation before the cooler air for all on Thursday.as the aforementioned trough scenario comes into play

Edited July 15, 2017 by knocker

[mb018538]

Maybe I'm seeing things differently, but the overall trend looks ok to me today?

sure the OP runs vary in their detail, but I do believe we will reach our high pressure utopia from next weekend and beyond! Keep the faith....the models will come round soon enough.

[knocker]

1 minute ago, mb018538 said:

Maybe I'm seeing things differently, but the overall trend looks ok to me today?

sure the OP runs vary in their detail, but I do believe we will reach our high pressure utopia from next weekend and beyond! Keep the faith....the models will come round soon enough.

As a matter of interest differently to whom?

[mb018538]

4 minutes ago, knocker said:

As a matter of interest differently to whom?

Just scrolling through some of the general malaise posted last night. Runs don't look too different this morning really, I'd say it's still more likely than not we will see a settled spell.

[knocker]

1 minute ago, mb018538 said:

Just scrolling through some of the general malaise posted last night. Runs don't look too different this morning really, I'd say it's still more likely than not we will see a settled spell.

Well as I have already intimated I don't disagree with your general comment regarding the outlook, then I kave tended to remain optimistic anyway, but to say the gfs and ecm runs are not different this morning is a bit of a stretch.

[mb018538]

Sorry I should clarify that I meant different from last night as opposed to each other - which they do of course vary. Let's keep the glass half full.

[phil nw.]

Nationwide we are still not looking at any prolonged settled spells,more like shorter warm and dry interludes as the Azores high continues to throw transient ridges across the UK before another frontal system moves in.

This looks like the case over the next week or so.A transient high cell moving across early next week gives many of us a couple of fine and warm days before it breaks down mid week as a low moves up from the south.

The heat drawn north from southern Europe ahead of it could well spark of some thundery outbreaks as already mentioned by others in their posts.The fax's showing the expected situation alongside a chart for the 850's underlining the position of the air mass boundaries.

Overall the models continue to show the influence of the Canadian upper trough during next week as Atlantic lows continue to suppress any long lasting ridging from the Azores high.

Day 5 for example from  the UK model and then a European view of the ECM mean at day 7.

           

A fairly typical outlook for the UK really not too bad at times with some quite warm and fine days interspersed with those Atlantic incursions from time to time.The best weather as ever in this pattern often found the further south and east you are.              

[Gordon Webb]

17 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

It could reach 30c midweek but with a thundery outbreak.

have things moved a little Eastwards , higher temps and the highest Cape look to have done

Edited July 15, 2017 by Gordon Webb

[johnholmes]

picking up on what phil posts above, he has summed up the UK prospects pretty well in my view.

I wrote this in my daily check on what the anomaly charts are depicting.

And by Sat 15 July all 3 have +ve heights and ridging w of uk into trough just e of uk, so another change in emphasis; about the only thing not sown recently, say past 7-10 days, as an active Atlantic flow

The fact that at 500mb the usually reliable and less prone to the often large variations in the synoptic models does suggest to me that some heat and sun and some rain or showers/storms alternating through the next couple of weeks is probably the quick overview of the weather much of the UK will get. It is also likely that southern areas of the UK will see more of any heat and any storms with a more changeable regime at times for the NW of the UK.

links to 500 mb anomaly charts

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

 

[northwestsnow]

Well well, looks like the troughs not going to lift out quickly and ecm was indeed leading warm settled weather fans up the garden path, meto update has now shifted again, was mid july now late july.

Time for a model break for me ...evidently anything past 96h is a complete waste of time.

[knocker]

17 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Well well, looks like the troughs not going to lift out quickly and ecm was indeed leading warm settled weather fans up the garden path, meto update has now shifted again, was mid july now late july.

Time for a model break for me ...evidently anything past 96h is a complete waste of time.

Have I got the wrong website for the METO updates because the one I use still has last night's update and still awaits today's?

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, knocker said:

Have I got the wrong website for the METO updates because the one I use still has last night's update and still awaits today's?

Gavin has posted it knocker...

[knocker]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Gavin has posted it knocker...

But that's last nights. today's update hasn't been issued yet.

[northwestsnow]

7 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

I can't see much wrong with this on the Ecm 00z ensemble mean, it shows the azores high gradually ridging in again following the midweek very warm / humid thundery then cooler changeable blip. improvements would be noticeable across southern / western uk from next weekend.

Mean looks ok Frosty, but the ops are poor, esp the further north you go...taking a break from posting as im probably depressing everyone :-( * looks ooutside to slate grey cloud n rain.

 

[Gael_Force]

The mean is not far off what we have at the moment .... a grey, drizzly mess.

[blizzard81]

Getting the azores high to ridge in next weekend is akin to pulling teeth

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, blizzard81 said:

Getting the azores high to ridge in next weekend is akin to pulling teeth

Yup.

Im not even convinced its going to ridge in next weekend really.

That trough is going to hang around like a bad smell imho, infact i can see thing deteriating quickly esp with the awful prospect of heighta building to the north and north west, hopefully im barking up the wrong tree would be great to hear om Tamara/gp..

[Mokidugway]

27 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Well it's what the pros are currently expecting and its what the Ecm mean shows. In the meantime there is some interesting weather ahead of us with a warm and sunny mon/tues followed by a very warm / humid and thundery midweek period.

I'll bank that over grey sky's and drizzle.

[Ross Andrew Hemphill]

At least tomorrow, Monday and Tuesday are gonna be dry for me. Wednesday better produce good storms if I ain't gonna get the heat, I need at least something to cheer about this summer. 

Models chopping and changing is so stressful for forecasters, must be a nightmare for the BBC. 

[Ice Man 85]

36 minutes ago, Ross Andrew Hemphill said:

I ain't gonna get the heat

Sound cheerful enough to me.

[Gordon Webb]

9 minutes ago, Ice Man 85 said:

Sound cheerful enough to me.

should be fine for you as well temp wise for wednesday , actually if charts are taken at face value then from the midlands westwards you shouldn't get the big heat but I could be reading them wrong or things could and probably will change by wednesday

[johnholmes]

1 hour ago, Ross Andrew Hemphill said:

At least tomorrow, Monday and Tuesday are gonna be dry for me. Wednesday better produce good storms if I ain't gonna get the heat, I need at least something to cheer about this summer. 

Models chopping and changing is so stressful for forecasters, must be a nightmare for the BBC. 

Not at all, it is part of the job

[knocker]

5 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

Not at all, it is part of the job

Not like down in the Falklands then John