Model Output Discussions 12z 01/06/2017

[Frosty.]

21 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Ecm 12z is improving following the midweek blip..good to see its sticking 2 fingers up at the gfs!

Ends well with the azores high building in, similar to the 00z..phew

Well after those dreadful gfs runs, it's a tonic to see the Ecm 12z is continuing from the 00z with its return of the azores high..fingers crossed its right.

[blizzard81]

2 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Well after those dreadful gfs runs, it's a tonic to see the Ecm 12z is continuing from the 00z with its return of the azores high..fingers crossed its right.

A run to calm the nerves. The azores high is being a real tease isn't it. Just needs to be a little less shy

[Frosty.]

8 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

A run to calm the nerves. The azores high is being a real tease isn't it. Just needs to be a little less shy

Yes I found it soothing, let's hope we get cross model support for the Azores high to come out of its shell more often and help the uk for the rest of this summer..hoping like hell the Ecm is showing the way..northern UK deserves some summer!

Edited July 14, 2017 by Frosty.

[ANYWEATHER]

Evening All. If we spotlight to day ten which we know is the silly output, gfs makes more of an Atlantic low , ecm still tries to make some thing of the Azores high which both models agreed on a few days ago. Now if this was preference I would go gfs as it will be fresh cooler Atlantic air ,yes unsettled but with some sparkling summer sunshine on offer, conversely ,ecm shows muggy, cloudy oppressive conditions with little sunshine .......Take your pick

Edited July 14, 2017 by ANYWEATHER

[knocker]

Not precise but this evening's det run is not a million miles from this morning's EPS anomaly

And the temp and contours

[I remember Atlantic 252]

4 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Another disappointing GEFS 12z mean with more trough influence like the 6z before it..something has really changed with the Gefs because very recently it was loving the azores high..hope its wrong and the ecm is right.. I don't mind showing my bias for summery weather in summer rather than green snot / cool and unsettled!

0perational hopefully better Frosty, improvement for Saturday, 

Edited July 14, 2017 by I remember Atlantic 252

[Ian Francis]

Model stand-off is a nailbiter. 18z will be very interesting

 

[ANYWEATHER]

1 minute ago, Ian Francis said:

Model stand-off is a nailbiter. 18z will be very interesting

 

 

1 minute ago, Ian Francis said:

Model stand-off is a nailbiter. 18z will be very interesting

 

Penalty shoot out for gfs and ecm,,,,,,,,,Gfs=3    ecm =2

[Captain Shortwave]

So model wise. The ECM/ens and the UKMO favoured slowly clearing the low eastwards. The GFS and it's suite favour stalling the low over the UK. Interestingly the parallel is even more extreme and stalls the low far enough west to keep  a generally warm southerly even into next weekend with some heavy showers both home grown and the risk of imports from France. To be honest there is no clear answer this evening.

[Mokidugway]

2 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:

So model wise. The ECM/ens and the UKMO favoured slowly clearing the low eastwards. The GFS and it's suite favour stalling the low over the UK. Interestingly the parallel is even more extreme and stalls the low far enough west to keep  a generally warm southerly even into next weekend with some heavy showers both home grown and the risk of imports from France. To be honest there is no clear answer this evening.

Yep it's up to the errrr....

[northwestsnow]

Ecm mean looks grand day 6 onwards- trouble is the tricky part is prior to that so if the op and suite are wrong ( and GFS/GEFS are correct)it renders the ecm suite meaningless...

Edited July 14, 2017 by northwestsnow

[knocker]

Little change with the EPS anomaly from previous. The Canadian vortex does get realigned and after a period of transient troughing next week with some unsettled weather the Azores does push north to the west and thus settling the weather down starting over the weekend and once again pushing the temps up above average. This continues into the extended period although the flow does tend towards zonal towards the end but no significant troughing. The NOAA is much on the same page this evening.

Edited July 14, 2017 by knocker

[Ross Andrew Hemphill]

Beeb's latest forecast shows an absolute belter of a storm outbreak on Tuesday night and Wednesday, and hint that the azores will ridge back in somewhat at the weekend. 

It's all to play for atm, some slight improvements. 

[Frosty.]

Tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean, like the operational, shows the azores high building back in after the very warm and humid thundery midweek period..fingers crossed the Ecm is leading the way here!

Edited July 14, 2017 by Frosty.

[northwestsnow]

So as it stands we can be confident Exeter and by proxy the Beeb are going along with Ecms version of events..thats a big relief as the sound of the azores high ridging in behind this troublesome trough is music to my ears.

That said, its complex, and Gfs is resolutely sticking to its own guns bringing about an outlook i dont personally want to contemplate.

Im saying 65%-35 % in favour of Ecm as it stands and i would suggest the 00z runs will be defining.

[northwestsnow]

Looking like gfs is moving towards euro at 96...hopefully !!

Edit mon and tue look really nice actually with plenty of warm sunshine..

Edited July 14, 2017 by northwestsnow

[Frosty.]

Another abysmal Gfs run unfolding..I've seen enough

[Scorcher]

You have to laugh really, just 3 days ago we were thinking about a potential legendary spell of weather, I even made comparisons with July 2013 with a huge area of high pressure extending right from beyond the Azores to Scandinavia.

It seemed nothing could go wrong and it was difficult to see how it could go pear shaped. Everything was falling into place to deliver an amazing prolonged spell of summer weather.

What has happened since just seems unbelievably cruel- and I've seen some collapses down the years when model watching (also while watching the England cricket team). But this perhaps tops the lot. Enough to really make you lose all faith in the British climate. The weather gods (or perhaps hopefully, the creators of the GFS) are having a massive laugh at our expense. 

Edited July 14, 2017 by Scorcher

[blizzard81]

7 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

You have to laugh really, just 3 days ago we were thinking about a potential legendary spell of weather, I even made comparisons with July 2013 with a huge area of high pressure extending right from beyond the Azores to Scandinavia.

It seemed nothing could go wrong and it was difficult to see how it could go pear shaped. Everything was falling into place to deliver an amazing prolonged spell of summer weather.

What has happened since just seems unbelievably cruel- and I've seen some collapses down the years when model watching (also while watching the England cricket team). But this perhaps tops the lot. Enough to really make you lose all faith in the British climate. The weather gods (or perhaps hopefully, the creators of the GFS) are having a massive laugh at our expense. 

But this is based on the mighty GFS! There have been times when the GFS has out gunned the other models but it is extremely rare. Ukmo has moved towards ecm - that is crucial 

 

 

Edited July 14, 2017 by blizzard81

[Scorcher]

8 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

But this is based on the mighty GFS! There have been times when the GFS has out gunned the other models but it is extremely rare. Ukmo has moved towards ecm - that is crucial 

 

 

I've tried to remain positive, but the ECM doesn't show the Azores high moving towards us until next Saturday at the earliest. That's a far cry from what it showed just a few days ago with a massive area of high pressure over us from midweek next week onwards. Hopefully we will still get there in the end but it's another few days of July gone unfortunately.

[Summerstorm]

3 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

But this is based on the mighty GFS! There have been times when the GFS has out gunned the other models but it is extremely rare. Ukmo has moved towards ecm - that is crucial 

 

 

Yep as @blizzard81 said it's a step hopefully in the right direction and the GFS does seem to be going a bit overkill considering the ECM and UKMO now agree on a more settled spell than the GFS suggests into the week after next also if you look at this CFS chart they suggest above average pressure throughout July unless GFS knows something the MetO,BBC or ECM know then I would say it is wildly exaggerating the low pressure. And I would expect that from the signals the Azores high is bound to ridge in eventually. (Feel free to correct me if I'm talking rubbish I've only just stumbled onto the scene though )

[northwestsnow]

Whether its cold in winter or heat in summer its pure torture!!!!

Gfs is a huge improvement this morning and then i viewed ukmo and just sat there shaking my head...

Another important ecm which has been pretty consistent in lifting the trough out, as gfs has now done this morning.The trouble is ukmo is now messing around and doesnt look to be going anywhere nice for the uk at t144...

[knocker]

No big surprise this morning as the gfs revises how it handles the upper low which of course completely alters the surface evolution. A couple of charts for  Thursday at 06z to illustrate this and then just a brief overview.

Sunday and Monday pretty good as the ridge takes centre stage but by 00z Wednesday this has moved east and the unstable shallow low is now affecting the south west whilst the fronts associated with the aforementioned upper low are now just west of Ireland.

From this point the low and the weakening fronts phase and the whole caboodle tracks NE bringing thundery outbreaks to much of England and Wale on it's travels At the same time this will produce a quite marked temperature transition. There isn't a great deal of point in this but out of interest.

From this point the upper trough continues to swing around as the Azores pushes north in the Atlantic and becomes centred over Iceland which, although the latter is still briefly affecting Scotland should facilitate the Azores becoming more influential and the onset of some fine and warm weather for all. Much as has been signalled of late. A feel another bout of heat wave hysteria is immanent. .

 

Edited July 15, 2017 by knocker

[Man With Beard]

Heatwave hysteria... on the GEM too. Back to the UK high from next weekend in that one.

So the GFS/GEM have completely given up the dartboard low - despite near 100% agreement on GEFS ensembles yesterday!!

Only for the UKMO to now stall it, albeit just to the North West and nowhere near where the GFS previously had it.

Wednesday looking potentially quite hot no matter where one looks.

[Man With Beard]

And the T120 ECM is heading for the dartboard UK low!!! It's a total switch around this morning!!!