Model Output Discussions 12z 01/06/2017

[Frosty.]

I do love a happy ending..The Ecm 00z provides one!

[northwestsnow]

Just now, Scorcher said:

How do you know about UKMO? Have you seen it out to 216 hrs?

I think the GFS is really the worst case scenario and I can't imagine it will end up that bad- it's most people's worst nightmare after the dream charts of a few days ago. Cruel.

Thankfully the ECM looks a LOT better and shows the trough next week as being transitory.

Ukmo looks very much like gfs at 144 so i dont think it would show anything like what ecm is showing, well thats my opinion of course..

[Scorcher]

28 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Manchester is world famous for its dreadful weather, at least it looks better for the south / south-east.

Thing is, this myth even perpetuates in a weather forum! In UK terms the Manchester climate is not bad by any means.

Ask anyone from the Lake District who moves to Manchester whether Manchester is wet and they will laugh at you!

[Man With Beard]

ECM op thankfully follows its mean from last night, and so at least we have one run without the dartboard low!!

The difference between the GFS and ECM illustrates perfectly the impact of getting heights above the trough will make.

The ECM is a return to the generally good scenario we were considering a few days ago for the period after 22nd July .

[northwestsnow]

Just now, Scorcher said:

Thing is, this myth even perpetuates in a weather forum! In UK terms the Manchester climate is not bad by any means.

Ask anyone from the Lake District who moves to Manchester whether Manchester is wet and they will laugh at you!

Really? Maybe oldham is wetter, im not sure its a coincidence the cotton mill industry was mainly in this locale.:-)

[Scorcher]

3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Ukmo looks very much like gfs at 144 so i dont think it would show anything like what ecm is showing, well thats my opinion of course..

I think your view maybe being clouded by pessimism- understandable after the last few runs.

ECM doesn't look great at 144 hrs either, it's what happens after that is crucial. I would be surprised if the UKMO develops into that ever present trough that the GFS shows.

[Scorcher]

Just now, Frosty. said:

So.  Manchester's rain is a myth?..anyway, a summery Ecm 00z with great longevity potential.

800mm a year is below the UK average. Okay it is noticeably worse than further south and east, but it's not worthy of  being singled out as often as it is IMO.

[mb018538]

Does anyone have the link to the 168 UKMO chart??

[blizzard81]

2 hours ago, northwestsnow said:

I feel physically sick after watching the GFS0z - you really couldnt make it up, we end up under a cold wet trough for days and days..UKMO looks very similar by 144 just to rub salt in the wounds.

An absolute joke of a climate.

Looks like the meto warm settled spell is fast going down the kazi, typical really, when the charts look good for either winter cold or summer heat and they go against the charts they often call it right, looks like for all the best will in the world we get shafted, time after time.

Just hurry up and emigrate, i really need to...:-(

Don't lose faith yet. Ecm sticks to it's guns this morning. Cmon ecm, out trump the GFS again like you have so many times over the years. 

[knocker]

Not totally unexpected the ecm differs from the gfs post T144 where I suspect the latter has gone off the rails.

At T120 the main Atlantic trough has disrupted with a surface low to the WSW of Cornwall and the Biscay low into south west England pushing some showery precipitation north over England and Wales during Wednesday. This wet low pressure area moves away north east because, and this is key, the upper low to the NW does not intensify and moves SE rather al la the gfs option, but tracks ESE and thus remains north of Scotland. It does perform a few minor skirmishes but essentially any surface lows generally just affect Scotland and the Azores is allowed to build NE over the rest of the country and eventually including Scotland. Much as the EPS anomaly was suggesting. Thus the settled and warmer spell is back on the agenda. although of course it was never off.

Edited July 14, 2017 by knocker

[Polar Maritime]

Some post are better suited to the Model banter/moan thread. Just model output discussion in here please thanks ☺

[mb018538]

I hope so knocker - the gfs ensembles have completely gone against a warm and settled spell now.

I'd say cool/average with showers if this is right. God I hope the ECM is correct and the GFS is having a wobbly again.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

2 hours ago, northwestsnow said:

I feel physically sick after watching the GFS0z - you really couldnt make it up, we end up under a cold wet trough for days and days..UKMO looks very similar by 144 just to rub salt in the wounds.

An absolute joke of a climate.

Looks like the meto warm settled spell is fast going down the kazi, typical really, when the charts look good for either winter cold or summer heat and they go against the charts they often call it right, looks like for all the best will in the world we get shafted, time after time.

Just hurry up and emigrate, i really need to...:-(

I think the 00Z GFS chart for 21-22nd will happen, as it's the 10th anniversary of the dreadful washout of 21 July '07, GEM showing similar

Edited July 14, 2017 by I remember Atlantic 252

[Summer Sun]

The main 3 at t168 - UKMO & GFS unsettled ECM on it's own

 

[mb018538]

Thanks summer sun....exactly what we didn't want to see. UKMO running with the deep low scenario too 

[danm]

1 hour ago, Scorcher said:

Thing is, this myth even perpetuates in a weather forum! In UK terms the Manchester climate is not bad by any means.

Ask anyone from the Lake District who moves to Manchester whether Manchester is wet and they will laugh at you!

Here are the stats on rainiest cities in the UK. Manchester sits 8th out of the cities listed:

London is the driest city in the UK, Cardiff the wettest with Glasgow not far behind.

 

Back to the models, still a very mixed outlook. A definite warm up particularly for the south out to the middle of next week. Hopefully after a more unsettled 2/3 days after Wednesday we will see a return to the Azores high.

Edited July 14, 2017 by danm

[mountain shadow]

27 minutes ago, danm said:

Here are the stats on rainiest cities in the UK. Manchester sits 8th out of the cities listed:

London is the driest city in the UK, Cardiff the wettest with Glasgow not far behind.

 

Back to the models, still a very mixed outlook. A definite warm up particularly for the south out to the middle of next week. Hopefully after a more unsettled 2/3 days after Wednesday we will see a return to the Azores high.

There are numerous cities missing from that list though, Dundee, Derry, Aberdeen, Belfast, Sunderland etc..

[Frosty.]

The Ecm 00z ensemble mean looks good early on, especially the first few days next week with warm settled conditions across the board, then has a wobble in the middle before recovering near the end as the azores high ridges across the uk again..beyond day 10 would be pretty good I think.

[Summer Sun]

 St Swithun's Day tomorrow for many parts in the north we'll see some rain the further south you are the better chance you have of remaining dry

[knocker]

The EPS mean anomalies are still okay with a more benign settled period for the last ten days or so of July albeit no heatwave.

Certainly troughing in midweek and some cooler unsettled weather on the cards but over the weekend as this move east the Azores is still ridging to the south west and becomes quite influential until the end of the month introducing drier weather for most with temps a little above average.. The possibility of incursions from the south still remain.

[A.J]

what I've noticed this summer (and late spring) is the GFS's penchant for plonking flabby lows over the UK which then sit their for the entirety of the run, but as of yet, I 've yet to see one actually verify, both hot spells we've had down here were originally progged by models to be trough based flabby lows which never materialised of course, so I'd be inclined to take the anything post T144 with a large pinch of salt

[geoffw]

i know you don't like discussing the ec46   but what does it show knocker ?

[knocker]

36 minutes ago, geoffw said:

i know you don't like discussing the ec46   but what does it show knocker ?

What I posted earlier for the EPS out to day 14 will be much the same and thereafter into the beginning of August temps generally remain above average with the odd dip from minor toughing. This should not result in much as the Canadian vortex is taking a rest. So generally speaking the Azores remaining influential from the SW without dominating proceedings. This of course is very broad brush.

Edited July 14, 2017 by knocker

[claret047]

1 hour ago, mountain shadow said:

There are numerous cities missing from that list though, Dundee, Derry, Aberdeen, Belfast, Sunderland etc..

Good Morning Everyone,

Apologies for making the thread a little off-topic, but I believe that Chelmsford may well vie for the title of driest City. We achieved City status in 2012. Although I do not have the figures we certainly have been over they years one of the driest counties in the country. I also do not see Canterbury on the list. Have I missed it as my eyes are not what they were?

As far as next week is concerned, reading what the charts on here it would appear that although at times in the south it will be  hot for one maybe two days mid week it will also become increasingly unsettled, although continue to remain a bit humid. Further north it will  be mostly unsettled throughout. Have I read this correct or am I spouting rubbish?

Kind Regards

Dave

Edited July 14, 2017 by claret047

[karyo]

3 hours ago, Scorcher said:

800mm a year is below the UK average. Okay it is noticeably worse than further south and east, but it's not worthy of  being singled out as often as it is IMO.

Agreed! Manchester doesn't even make the list of the UK's top 10 wettest places so it is one of those amusing myths. We are often in the rain shadow due to the mountains of northeast Wales, so while it rains in many places nearby such as Lancaster or Cumbria here he get a bit or light rain or drizzle. There is even a difference between Oldham and Manchester due to orographic uplift. http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/learning/rain/how-much-does-it-rain-in-the-uk

I think the reason why Manchester has the reputation as a wet city lies with the number of visitors it gets. It is the most visited city in England after London and the 3rd most visited in the UK. So although there are many cities wetter than Manchester many people haven't been there. For example Swansea and Cardiff are wetter cities. But when we are compared to London we are of course cloudier and wetter.

Anyway, back on topic, the gfs continues to advertise a thundery breakdown on Wednesday. I wonder if the thunder risk gets downgraded as we approach the day.